The rains in 1997 were irregular and unevenly distributed. Except for sporadic rainfall in late March in the extreme south of the Sudanian zone, precipitation in this zone was generally good through September. In the Sahelian zone, the first rains came in the first dekad of June. Rainfall was generally good in June and July in all production areas, but in September rains were mostly sporadic, uneven and insufficient. Cumulative rainfall by late July, at the end of the rainy season, was close to the average and only slightly down from 1996.
In the Sudanian zone sowing started in the third dekad of April and sowing and resowing continued until July/August. Crops were relatively healthy in this area, despite slight damage to the millet and sorghum from insect infestation and localized withering due to dry spells. In the Sudano-Sahelian zones, first seeding took place in June, but the millet and sorghum crops withered when the rains ceased in the third dekad of June. This necessitated resowing in July and August. The very low rainfall of September caused further withering and some fields were abandoned.
The Desert Locust situation has been relatively calm throughout the season. In contrast, the African migratory locust has been reported since early September in the Dourbali zone (Massenya) and along the Mandalia-Guelendeng axis (Mayo-Kebbi), in a 10 km band each side of a line between Logone and Chari Rivers, as well as in Doum-Doum (Lac). There has been staggered reproduction and the population is in all stages of growth. Hoppers have been reported in the canton of Madiago and along the Linia-Dourbali axis to the southeast of N�Djamena. There have also been some severe attacks which caused localized destruction of sorghum nurseries and transplanted recession crops. Some damage to rainfed millet and sorghum has also been observed. Unless timely control measures are taken, the African migratory locust poses a threat to crops not only in Chad but also in northern Cameroon. Elsewhere, grasshoppers have been reported in the late millet and sorghum crops in the prefectures of Ouadda�, Biltine, Lac, Kanem, Batha, Guera, Chari-Baguimi and Mayo-Kebbi. Their presence has caused some farmers to harvest their cereals before full maturity.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated total cereal production for 1997/98 at 993 300 tons which is 13 percent up from 1996 and 9 percent above the five-year average. The increase is mainly due to maize and rice, which increased by 36 percent and 47 percent respectively. In contrast, pearl millet is expected to be down by about 7 percent. This assumes that control measures are taken against the African migratory locust, particularly in areas where flood recession sorghum and long- cycle cereals are grown.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be better in 1997/98 than in 1996/97, except in the areas affected by African migratory locusts attacks on recession crops. Markets are generally well supplied and millet prices are declining in the Sahelian zone reflecting good harvest prospects. The national security stock is exhausted, and this will impede possible interventions in vulnerable areas. Its recommended level is 22 000 tons, as estimated by an FAO mission in 1995. Donors are urged to assist with local purchases for the reconstitution of the national security stock.