Light rains in the second half of October brought some moisture relief to the 1997/98 cereal crops currently being planted. The rains ended 6 weeks of precipitation shortfall across most of the northwestern part of the country. Prospects are nevertheless poor for maize, the main crop, particularly in the highlands of Nariño and Cundinamarca provinces, which have been affected by prolonged dry weather and elevated temperatures and where forest fires have been reported. The area planted is expected to decrease from last year’s below-average level. The outlook is also poor for the sorghum crop. Production is anticipated to decline for the fourth consecutive year. The intended area planted to paddy is tentatively forecast to stay close to 1996 slightly below-average level, but this will largely depend upon the development of El Niño phenomenon which is expected to reach its peak in the next few months. Fruit and vegetable crops benefited from the rains and prices of some food items which significantly increased fell back to near normal levels in anticipation of larger supply.
Cereal imports in 1998 are forecast to increase considerably from relatively high levels reached in 1997 in order to compensate the deficit in production and meet the steady domestic demand.