Prospects for the 1998 first season crops, to be harvested from late December, are uncertain. A three week delay in the start of the rainy season reduced plantings and left crops vulnerable to an early cessation of rainfall. Precipitation was abundant during the second half of October in western parts but remained insufficient in south-eastern areas. Above average rains in the first dekad of November in these areas improved soil moisture conditions for the crops but are likely to have been too late to avoid yield reductions, particularly in Ruyigi and Cankuso provinces.

A reduced 1998 first season crop could aggravate the already precarious food supply situation, arising from a below pre- crisis average food production in the previous season and disruption in marketing activities due to the embargo from neighbouring countries. Prices of food continue to be at high levels. The situation is particularly difficult for people in regroupment camps without access to land. The Government has recently announced a programme to close all camps, requiring those housed there to return home. It is reported that the nutrition situation continues to be alarming in several areas, particularly in prefectures affected by insecurity, which hampers relief interventions by international agencies, and in several sites for displaced populations.

Increasingly violent incidents were reported during October in the provinces of Cibitoke, Bubanza, Rural Bujumbura, Bururi and Makamba.

ERITREA* (14 November)

The 1997 main season cereal harvest is underway. Preliminary forecasts point to a crop slightly above the reduced level of last year. The rainy season started well and the area planted to cereals increased by 11 percent from 1996. However, an early cessation of the precipitation in September, when the crops were at the critical maturing stage, adversely affected yields. In pastoral areas, abundant rains in October improved conditions for pastures and water supplies. However, with the rains there is a risk that locust numbers will significantly increase on the Red Sea coastal plains.

Market prices for the major food staples, which have risen steadily since June reflecting diminishing supplies, continued to increase in September in anticipation of a reduced harvest.

With an expected below-average cereal harvest for the third consecutive year and sharp reduction in export availability from neighbouring Ethiopia, the food situation will tighten in the year ahead. The food security of large sections of the population, who even in normal years do not cover their subsistence requirements, is likely to deteriorate.

ETHIOPIA* (1 December)

Above-normal rains in November in the south-eastern parts bordering Somalia and Kenya, resulted in extensive flooding causing hundreds of deaths, displacement of a large number of people and severe damage to housing. Over 12 000 domestic animals are reported lost and 30 000 hectares of land inundated. Food and non-food assistance is being distributed by the Government in the affected areas, mainly the communitites around Kelafo, Mustahil and Ferfer which are isolated by the rising water levels. A detailed assessment of the flood damage is underway.

Elsewhere in the country, widespread abundant rains in October and November have affected yield potential of the 1997 main �Meher� season cereal and pulse crops being harvested. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 2 to 26 November 1997 to estimate the production of the 1997 Meher (main) season cereal and pulse crops and estimate import requirements for 1998 including food aid needs. The Mission forecasts a 1997 Meher harvest of 8.786 million tons of cereals and pulses, which is 25.6 percent below last year�s level. The reduction in production is primarily the result of poor Belg rains and late, low and erratic rainfall during the Meher growing season, particularly in lowland areas, exacerbated by unusually heavy rains at harvest time. A 20 percent reduction in fertilizer use in key surplus areas due to the removal of subsidy and credit restrictions on slow repayers was another factor contributing to the decrease. Army-worm, the main migratory pest this year was efficiently controlled by Ministry of Agriculture supported spraying teams. Non-migratory pests and diseases though present were not considered to be beyond the usual levels of tolerance in most zones. Livestock production was threatened by mid-main season droughts in all agro- pastoralist areas, causing a 60-70 percent fall in prices, premature migrations and increased morbidity and mortality. Fortunately, the late rains reversed the situation in all respects in October and November and a normal state pertains despite localized losses.

Prices of all major cereals by October 1997 were above last year�s level reflecting tighter supplies and traders� expectations of a reduced harvest in comparison to the bumper crop of 1996.

KENYA (27 November) The heaviest rains in 30 years in coastal and north-eastern areas since mid-October, associated with El Nino phenomenon, resulted in floods and landslides causing loss of life, serious damage to infrastructure and housing, and displacement of population. The Government has declared the affected Coast, North Eastern and parts of Eastern Provinces Disaster Zones. Localized agricultural damage is also reported. However, since most of these provinces are marginal agricultural areas, the crop losses are not expected to have a significant impact at national level. Several towns in the disaster areas have remained isolated by flood waters for more than a month. Food supplies have been exhausted and food prices have tripled, particularly in villages along the Tana river. The Government is distributing relief assistance to some 60 000 affected population in these areas by helicopter and by sea, and has launched an appeal to the international community for supplement its efforts with food and non-food assistance. About 2 000 refugees from Somalia, South Sudan and Ethiopia from camps around the village of Dadaab have also been displaced.

Overall, despite the localized crop losses, abundant rains since the beginning of the 1997/98 "short rains" in the bi-modal areas of the Western, Central and Eastern provinces favoured an increase in the area planted to maize and pulses and benefited crop establishment. However, the prospects for the harvest from mid-January could deteriorate if the heavy precipitation continue into December. The abundant rains have also benefited pastures and livestock conditions which have not fully recovered from the severe drought of the previous "short rains" season.

Harvest of the 1997 main "long rains" season cereal crops continues in the main uni-modal growing areas of the Rift Valley. Prospects have deteriorated as a result of continuous above normal precipitation during November, which has delayed harvesting operations and adversely affected yields. Yield potential was earlier affected by dry spells in May and September, notwithstanding the overall abundant precipitation during the growing season, while a late start of the rainy season resulted in plantings reductions of the main maize crop. Production forecasts have been revised downward and point to a maize crop of 1.9 million tons, around the reduced crop of 1996. Production of wheat is forecast at 320 000 tons, below the good level of the previous year, with an expansion in the area planted partially compensating for lower yields. Harvesting of beans, mainly produced in the bi-modal areas, is completed. The output is estimated one-third below the average level as a result of seeds shortages. This is the second consecutive poor harvest of beans.

As a result of the lower than expected 1997 main season cereal production, and assuming a good secondary season crop, imports of cereals in marketing year 1997/98 (October/September) are expected to remain at the high level of the previous year.

Prices of food staple maize started to decline from September reflecting record imports in marketing year 1996/97 (October/September) and the arrival of the new harvest into the markets. However, they remain at very high levels well beyond the reach of large sections of vulnerable population.

RWANDA* (14 November)

Normal rains in the first dekad of November which followed abundant rains since mid-October, benefited 1998 first season foodcrops. However, prospects for the harvest, from late December, are uncertain. A delay of three weeks at the start of the rainy season resulted in a reduction in plantings and left crops vulnerable to an early cessation of precipitation, while insecurity in the north-western provinces of Ruhengeri and Gisengi continues to disrupt normal agricultural activities.

The food supply situation is tight. The output of the 1997 B season was higher than in the previous year but lower than the pre-war average. The small 1997 C �marshland� season was also reduced. In aggregate, production in the second half of the year remained below needs of an expanded population following the massive returns of December 1996 and early 1997. Prices of basic food staple continue to increase, except for beans which have stabilized at high levels. Serious food shortages are reported in the Gikongoro, Butare and Kibungo prefectures.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is planned for January 1998 to appraise 1998 A food production and estimate import requirements for the first half of the next year, including food aid.

SOMALIA* (28 November)

Persistently heavy rains since mid-October caused serious floods, at least 1 500 deaths and extensive damage to infrastructure and property. Large numbers of people have been displaced. Important crop and livestock losses in agricultural areas are also reported, particularly in southern areas along the Juba and Shebelle rivers.

The 1997/98 �Deyr� crops, which normally account for some 20 percent of annual cereal production, were planted just before the heavy rains started. Following torrential precipitation over a month, the maize and sorghum crops have been adversely affected in the regions of Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shebelle, but also in the sorghum belt area of Bay, Bakool and Hiraan regions, and in growing areas of the North- west. A detailed assessment of agricultural losses is not yet possible, but preliminary estimates indicate that at least half of the cereal crop in southern growing areas have suffered serious flood damage. Prospects for the harvest from January are, therefore, poor and 1997/98 �Deyr� cereal production is anticipated to be reduced for the fourth consecutive time. Household food reserves, seeds and agricultural inputs have also been destroyed by the floods. Losses of livestock are provisionally estimated at 21 000 head.

The flood has exacerbated an already precarious food supply situation in several parts of the country, resulting from a succession of bad harvests and the disruption of agricultural and marketing activities due to persistent civil conflict and insecurity. Prices of basic food, which were already at high levels, have increased three-fold since the floods started in affected areas in the south. The situation is particularly critical along the Juba river, from Jamame to Buale, where serious food shortages have developed as towns are isolated by flood waters.

For the country as a whole, the deterioration of crop prospects for the 1997/98 �Deyr� crop will result in a much larger deficit of food grains than previously estimated. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, fielded in August this year, estimated an import requirement of 247 000 tons of cereals for the 1997/98 marketing year (September/August) of which 215 000 tons were expected to be covered commercially and 32 000 tons by food aid. This estimate was based on the assumption of a normal secondary �Deyr� crop of about 95 000 tons. With current indications pointing to another reduced �Deyr� crop, the cereal deficit has been revised to 280 000 tons and the food aid requirement to 60 000 tons.

Food and non-food relief is currently being provided to around 112 000 people but persistently bad weather and insecurity are hampering relief operations. Further food aid pledges and assistance with transport for relief distributions, mainly by helicopters and boats, are also urgently required.

SUDAN* ( 3 December)

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has just completed its field work in Sudan and has concluded that cereal production is significantly down on last year's record harvest. Most of the reduction is in sorghum and is due to lower areas planted and the effect of a dry September across much of the country. Irrigated sorghum is comparable to last year. The millet crop is higher than last year's very poor harvest, but winter wheat is expected to be similar to 1996/97. Considerable carryover stocks from 1996 should ensure adequate food supplies overall, but severe food deficits will occur in North Darfur and parts of North Kordofan.

In Southern Sudan, the season was dominated by a long dry period which followed good planting rains in April. Much of the first season crop was lost in Eastern Equatoria, Lakes, Bahr El Jebel and Bahr El Ghazal. Some long season sorghum crops survived but yields will be reduced by heavy infestation of stalk borer.

Insecurity caused much disruption of farming in Bahr El Ghazal and, in parts of Jonglei States. Severe food shortages will be faced in Bahr El Jebel, Bahr El Ghazal, Eastern Equatoria and Lakes States.

TANZANIA (27 November)

Planting of the 1997/98 short �Vuli� rains crop season is complete in bi-modal northern areas, while that of the 1998 main �long rains� season in the uni-modal central and southern parts is well advanced. Widespread above-normal rains in November, which resulted in localized floods in northern and eastern parts, generally favoured planting operations and maintained adequate soil conditions for crop establishment.

Following a sharp decline in the 1997 aggregate cereal and non- cereal production, the overall food supply situation is tight. Prices of maize, rice, sorghum and cassava have more than doubled since last year and the country faces a cereal deficit in 1997/98 (June/May) of 851 000 tons. Most of the deficit is expected to be covered commercially and the Government has announced measures to facilitate imports by the private sector. However, food aid requirements, for 1.4 million most affected persons, are estimated at 76 000 tons of cereals. The food supply situation is particularly difficult in areas where the harvest was poor, mainly in the bi-modal areas of the north affected by two successive reduced crops. The outcome of the 1997/98 �Vuli� crop will be crucial for the food security of the population in these areas. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is planned to visit the country in January 1998 to appraise the �Vuli� crops at harvest and prospects for the main crop season in the south.

UGANDA (14 November)

Abnormally heavy rains in November in eastern parts, associated with El Nino phenomenon, resuted in floods and landslides causing loss of life, displacements of population and serious damage to property. Most affected area is the district of Mbale but also Tororo, Bugiri and Pallisa. An assessment of the agricultural losses is not yet available. Flooding have also been reported in some western areas.

Prospects for the 1997 second season food crops, to be harvested from next January, are uncertain. A delay of one month in the start of the rainy season resulted in plantings reductions, while the widespread heavy rains of November are likely to have resulted in localized crop losses due to floods. In northern areas, affected by civil conflict, agricultural activities continue to be disrupted. The outlook for the harvest could deteriorate if the abundant precipitation continues through December.

The food supply situation is tight following the reduced 1997 first season food crops, which was the second consecutive reduced harvest. Prices of food staples, maize and beans have stabilized in the past months but are at record levels. The situation is particularly serious in the Karamoja district, where food shortages are reported, but also in other eastern and north-eastern vulnerable areas affected by a succession of bad harvests. Serious food difficulties are also expericenced by over 200 000 displaced persons in the northern districts of Gulu and Kitgum and by some 80 000 in the western districts of Kasese and Bundibugyo, affected by civil disturbances.