COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES
The 1997 output of cereals is provisionally estimated by FAO to be at least 330 000 tons, despite localized crop damage by floods and hail. This outcome is close to last year’s good harvest as somewhat lower yields have been offset by a sharp increase in the area sown, which reached 200 000 hectares by official estimation. Winter wheat plantings rose 13 percent in response to price incentives, and the leasing of an additional 16 000 hectares of state land to farmers. FAO’s estimate of production is higher (by 10 percent) than official estimation as a sample survey of production on the private farms in 1996 provided clear evidence of substantial underreporting of the yield of wheat. With regard to other foodstuffs, output of potatoes and vegetables could remain close to last year’s level but that of fruit and grapes has most probably declined due to hail damage.
In 1997/98, domestic cereal utilization is estimated at about 672 000 tons, including 445 000 tons for food consumption for a population of about 3 million, feed (148 000 tons) and seed and other uses (79 000 tons). Against this requirement domestic production of cereals (excluding pulses) is estimated at 332 000 tons, leaving an import requirement of 340 000 tons, mainly wheat. Against this requirement, 54 000 tons of food aid has been pledged to date, and most of the balance is expected to be imported commercially. However, some 400 000 people continue to be in need of humanitarian assistance. Of these, WFP is targeting 140 000 people for take-home relief rations and 80 000 people through food-for-work. For 1998, the needs for these activities are estimated at some 20 000 tons. With carryover stocks estimated at 3 000 tons, donors are urged to make contributions against the 1998 shortfall of 17 000 tons. NGOs are also providing targeted food assistance
FAO estimates the 1997 grain harvest at 1.16 million tons, some 60 000 tons more than last year. This is somewhat higher than the official estimate (1.08 million tons) as with the ongoing privatization process many farmers are producing cereals outside traditional areas and this output is not reflected in official statistics. The area sown to wheat increased by 80 000 hectares, partially at the expense of barley. However, flood damage in July caused some crop damage. Nevertheless average yields on the remaining area was higher than last year. Production of wheat is tentatively estimated at 925 000 tons, compared to 800 000 tons last year. The coarse grain harvest is estimated at about 215 000 tons, 64 000 tons less than last year reflecting the reduced area sown. Production of potatoes in the private sector is increasing.
Per caput consumption of basic foodstuffs has stabilized. Following the successful privatization of the State Bread Corporation earlier this year a Strategic Cereals Reserve is to be created this year with the assistance of the EU. For this purpose the country will receive 35 000 tons of food aid in wheat to provide a revolving fund for imports as well as cash funds (from counterpart funds from past food aid deliveries) for local purchases. The domestic cereal requirement in 1997/98 is estimated at 1.5 million tons, (human consumption needs just over 1 million tons and feed and other uses 0.5 million tons). Given cereal production of 1.145 million tons (excluding pulses) the country would need to import 435 000 tons of cereals. The bulk of this is expected to be imported commercially but relief food aid for targeted distribution to the vulnerable populations will continue to be necessary. Confirmed pledges to date amount to 46 000 tons.
WFP continues supporting 155 000 internally displaced (IDPs) and otherwise vulnerable persons through relief food distributions and food-for-work activities. Whilst pledges are being received, 1,314 tons of cereals, 410 tons of edible oil, 341 tons of pulses and 50 tons sugar are still required to cover the needs until 30 June 1998.
The total 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is forecast at 6.2 million tons, clean weight, some 0.4 tons more than last year. The higher output reflects better yields following some 25 percent increase in fertilizer application. The area sown to grains increased by 6 percent, reaching almost 2.9 million hectares. Wheat output is estimated to be about 17 percent higher compared to last year, reflecting a 5 percent growth in sown area and better yields, while coarse grain output is likely to remain fairly stable.
In 1997/98 imports are estimated to increase marginally to 0.9 million tons as the country is expected to take advantage of cheap feedgrain supplies in the neighbouring countries. Imports are likely to be sourced mainly from the Russian Federation, the Ukraine and Kazakstan.
Agricultural production is recovering strongly as relatively high prices for produce and reasonable crop yields achieved by smallholder farms make this type of farming profitable, despite many constraints. The 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is estimated at a record 820 000 tons including 300 000 tons of wheat, significantly larger than last year. The area sown to wheat increased by 50 000 hectares and despite considerable crop losses due to late frosts, spring hail and excessive rains, yields increased. This was mainly due to better availability of seeds and fertilizers and incentives for farmers. Official reports indicate that maize was planted on 230 000 hectares. Better yields are also expected. Maize meal also forms an important part of the diet. The outlook for other foodcrops is also encouraging but the processing industry remains a major bottleneck to the expansion of output of fruit and vegetables.
Per caput consumption of basic foodstuffs is recovering. The abolition of state-subsidized bread rationing system in 1996 led to a sharp increase in both wheat production and imports by the private sector. In 1997/98 the domestic cereal utilization is forecast at 1.2 million tons, including 0.7 million tons for human consumption and the remainder for feed, seed and other uses. Domestic production of cereals (excluding pulses) is forecast at 0.8 million tons, leaving an import requirement of 0.4 million tons. The bulk of this is expected to be bought commercially. Food aid will continue to be required to meet the needs for relief distribution to the most vulnerable populations. So far, food aid allocations, including those carried forward from last year, amount to 0.12 million tons.
There are still about 300 000 people needing assistance, of which WFP supports 120 000 through relief food distributions and 50 000 who are enrolled in food-for-work activities. The remaining beneficiaries are covered by NGOs. Whilst pledges are being received, a balance requirement of 5 480 tons of cereals, 270 tons of edible oil and 721 tons sugar to cover the needs until 30 June 1998.
Uncertainty regarding not only yields, but also the area sown to grains casts doubt on the reliability of production forecasts. Based on extensive discussions with grain traders, many of whom also pre-finance inputs for production, FAO tentatively estimates the 1997/98 area sown to grains at 14.6 million hectares - nearly 1 million hectares less than the official estimate. The 1997 grain harvest is officially forecast at 12.2 million tons, 8 percent more than last year’s official estimate. The area sown to grains is estimated to have fallen by 2.5 million hectares but growing conditions have been better than last year in most areas excluding Akmola and average yields are higher. Early indications are that production of potatoes and vegetables, grown mainly on household plots, will remain close to the last year. Good oilseed yields are forecast to offset the 33 percent decrease in the area sown. Domestic production of sugar is expected to fall sharply.
In 1997/98, given cereal and pulse production of 12.2 million tons and a human consumption requirement of 2.4 million tons, cereal exports in 1997/98 are tentatively forecast to remain mainly wheat to other CIS countries. Relatively low cereal opening stocks, low import demand for barley in neighbouring countries and little progress in opening markets beyond the CIS are expected to reduce coarse grain exports to 0.4 million tons. The quality of the grain is generally good and the Russian Federation is already buying aggressively.
Cereal exports in 1996/97 are officially reported at 2.6 million tons; the actual level, however, is higher, due to unregistered exports. The Russian Federation remains the major market, but Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan accounted for almost 30 percent of estimated exports of 3.1 million tons in 1996/97.
The area sown to cereals increased by about 12 percent despite shortages of all major inputs. Growing conditions this year were better in the south than in the north. In the south good precipitation in the spring and early summer favoured crops after a relatively dry winter. In the north, unseasonably hot weather in May stressed crops. Nevertheless, the 1997 harvest is officially estimated at 1.7 million tons, 19 percent more than last year and above target. Output of wheat could rise to 1.35 million tons in response to an increase of 100 000 hectares in the area sown at the expense of barley and fodder crops. Production of potatoes and vegetables are expected to increase but the area sown to sugarbeet has fallen sharply in response to shortcomings and difficulties in processing and marketing.
Wheat production has more than doubled since 1991 and the country has an exportable surplus of wheat in 1997/98. Cross border trade with Uzbekistan (for fuel and inputs) is significant but appears to be partially offset by commercial imports from Kazakhstan. In 1997/98 the domestic cereal utilization is estimated at 1.7 million tons including 0.7 million tons for human consumption, 0.7 million tons for feed and the balance for other uses, mainly seed. Imports are estimated at 0.12 million tons, and include 78 000 tons of food aid already pledged to assist Tajik refugees and other vulnerable people in the country. This year also, the country will receive direct budget support from the EU with disbursement conditional to the implementation of specific reforms.
The 1997 cereal and pulse harvest is expected to increase by one third, reaching 3.0 million tons. The area sown increased 11 percent despite severe financial constraints limiting access to all major inputs. Some inputs are provided as credits in kind often using the upcoming harvest as collateral, but fertilizers remained in short supply. Better weather, particularly in terms of the quantity and distribution of rainfall, was the main factor in the sharp recovery from the drought reduced 1996 harvest (1.9 million tons). Wheat production could increase by 67 percent to 1.2 million tons mainly reflecting better yields. Output of coarse grains is tentatively forecast to increase by 55 percent to 1.75 million tons in response to a sharp increase in both the areas sown and yields. With regard to other foodcrops, production of sugarbeet and potatoes is expected to increase but vegetable and sunflower production were affected by excessive rains in the summer.
The country was a net importer of cereals in 1996/97 but is expected to have an exportable surplus in 1997/98. However, grain may only be exported under licence from the Ministry of Economics, which also sets indicative export prices for grains below which firms are prohibited from exporting. These prices are often set above market prices in the Ukraine and the Russian Federation. As a result, registered exports are expected to remain small, around 0.3 million tons at most and feed use of grains and stocks are likely to increase.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (14 November)
The 1997 grain harvest is estimated at 85 million tons, including about 44 million tons of wheat (of which less than 20 million tons is food-quality wheat). The area sown to grains remained fairly stable, with slight decreases in the areas sown to winter wheat and barley more than offset by increases in spring sowings. The tendency in the last several years of shifting grain production from feed to food grain is drawing to a close. Though wheat production for food is highly profitable, the proportion of this profitable grain in the harvest is diminishing as a result of inadequate use of pesticides, herbicides, and improved seed. This year this trend has been aggravated by excessive rains in some regions and serious pest infestation in major food wheat producing areas. With regard to other crops, the potato harvest could be somewhat less than the last year given the reduction in the area sown. Production of vegetables will most likely stay at the same level. The area sown to oilseeds has decreased this year by about 7 percent but yields are somewhat better.
In 1997/98 domestic utilization is estimated at 80 million tons, including nearly 21 million tons for human consumption and the balance for feed and other uses. Given the harvest forecast and the large proportion of feed-quality grain therein, it is likely that feed use of grains will increase despite better forage supplies and the continuing cut back in animal numbers. The extent of the increase in feed use will depend crucially on developments in domestic prices for feed and export opportunities. Losses are forecast to grow as a result of a shift to on-farm grain storage.
Cereal exports (including intra-CIS trade) in 1996/97 are officially reported at about 0.9 million tons and imports at 2.9 million tons (including 0.4 million tons of rice)
In 1997/98 the high proportion of feed-quality grain in the harvest implies excess of domestic supply and a large exportable surplus of these grains. However export opportunities of feed grain are limited by ample supplies and low prices on the international markets and by the high domestic costs associated with grain assembling, handling and transportation and also by the limited facilities at the ports. Cereal exports (including intra-CIS trade) in 1997/98 are tentatively estimated at 3 million tons, roughly divided 65/35 between barley and feed wheat unless Polish demand for feedgrains is larger than expected because of its poor harvest. Extra-CIS trade is tentatively forecast at 0.4 million tons of wheat and 1.9 million tons of coarse grains (barley).
Cereal imports are forecast at 2.9 million tons, including 2 million tons of wheat, 0.4 million tons of rice and some coarse grains. Imports are, again tentatively, forecast at 0.9 million tons, including 0.5 million tons of food quality wheat, 0.4 tons of rice and a small quantity of maize.
WFP food distributions for Chechen refugees in the northern Caucasus (including Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Daghestan) were terminated in September.
Sporadic eruptions of civil strife and the dire economic situation in the country make reliable and systematic information very difficult to collect and data on supply and demand for food remain extremely tentative. The 1997 grain harvest is estimated by FAO and the EC-TACIS in-country staff at about 0.6 million tons, even higher than the good 1996 harvest now officially estimated at 543 000 tons. The area sown to wheat increased further at the expense of coarse grains, fodder crops and to a lesser extent cotton. Growing conditions this year were better than last year. Grain yields vary hugely depending on the quality of the land, (irrigated, salinated or not) and on the farmers’ access to inputs. The average yield of wheat in two project zones where the farmers were supplied with a full package of inputs were 2.95 tons and 2.25 tons respectively this year. However, these zones are not representative of the country and a national average yield of 1.5 tons per hectare has been adopted. Although low, (and likely representing yields after production expenses have been paid in kind), it reflects a situation in which every available piece of non-state owned land, whether suitable for cropping or not, has been sown to wheat. Output of fodder crops and to a lesser extent most other foodcrops is estimated to have declined as an increasing amount of land was diverted to wheat. Output of cotton, the main cash crop, is expected to recover from last year’s poor level but to remain below average.
The food security situation remains precarious as a result of intermittent civil strife and widespread unemployment, underemployment, inadequate land tenure and increasingly ineffective social security provisions. The findings of the first nation-wide food vulnerability assessment - carried out by the EC this year- are that 16.4 percent of the population are food insecure and cannot afford an adequate diet without targeted assistance. This percentage varies somewhat between regions, but is fairly evenly divided between rural and urban areas.
Even with the higher cereal production in 1997, the country could face a foodgrain deficit. The size of this deficit depends crucially on the resident population, estimated by the UN at 5.5 million but possibly 1.8 million lower. Estimating feed and other uses (mainly seed) at 140 000 tons, and per caput cereal consumption of 360 grams per person per day, the requirement for human consumption would be 740 000 tons for a population of 5.5 million. Against this domestic requirement, cereal production (excluding pulses and milled rice) is estimated at 583 000 tons, leaving an import requirement of virtually 300 000 tons. However this requirement would be reduced if a lower population assumption is used. The commercial import capacity is unlikely to exceed last year’s level, estimated at some 160 000 tons, leaving a food aid requirement of 137 000 tons under the higher population scenario. Some 90 000 tons have already been pledged to date. The humanitarian relief needs for the vulnerable population will remain large.
The reorganization of the former state farms into a collection of individual leaseholding farms and somewhat better incentives for individual farmers has contributed to an estimated 38 percent increase in cereal production in 1997. The area actually (as opposed to reportedly) sown to cereals increased by 50 000 hectares to 539 000 hectares. That sown to wheat increased at the expense of coarse grains, fodder crops and cotton. Growing conditions were better than last year, but the input supply situation remained difficult. A major contributing factor to the sharp increase in wheat production to 650 000 tons was the introduction of a contract system of farming for smallholders backed up by credit for essential inputs and services. The cotton harvest has suffered from adverse weather conditions (spring floods and a cool August), shortages of machinery, continued low availability of fertilizers and inadequate maintenance of the irrigation system. Output is likely to remain well below average but better than last year. Output of melons and other fruit is expected to decline, in response to limited marketing opportunities and the loss of export markets.
The food supply situation remains mixed and precarious in disadvantaged areas. Overall, the availability and choice of food has improved but a lack of purchasing power limits access and there are many infrastructural constraints. In urban areas, milk remains in short supply while in rural areas the wheat supply situation remains tight even after the harvest. People in depressed industrial areas and infertile rural areas are experiencing difficulties. Persons having an income below 120 000 manats, or U.S.$ 24 per month, are defined as vulnerable, and total 3.4 million according to official sources. These continue to receive flour, meat, milk, butter, tea on ration cards but the subsidy element is being steadily reduced. A household budget survey has been carried out but the results have not yet been disseminated.
Annual domestic cereal utilization has decreased to about 1.2 million tons including food consumption of 626 000 tons, other uses (mainly seed) of just under 170 000 tons and feed use of around 386 000 tons. Cereal stocks were drawn down in 1996/97 and are to be replenished this year. Against the total requirement of 1.42 million tons, domestic availability (stocks and production of cereals) are estimated at 863 000 tons. Allowing for some stock replenishment this leaves an import requirement of nearly 560 000 tons for 1997/98. This is expected to be covered commercially, mainly in Kazakhstan and the Ukraine but about 100 000 tons could be imported from outside the CIS.
FAO estimates the 1997 cereal and pulse harvest at 35 million tons, substantially larger than the drought reduced 1996 output, the recovery reflecting a sharp increase in the areas sown, better weather and increased use of inputs. This forecast is about 2 million tons higher than current harvest reports indicate to allow for under-estimation of output. The area sown to cereals is estimated to have increased by almost 2 million hectares, rising to 15.3 million hectares. but crops on at least 1.5 million hectares have been lost due to winterkill and persistent rains in the summer and autumn, which led to cut crops germinating and rotting in the field, and to a loss of quality. In addition, there is uncertainty about the proportion of the maize area which will be harvested for grain rather than for silage. The 1997 output of wheat is provisionally estimated at 19 million tons, significantly more than output last year, (estimated by FAO at 15 million tons), mainly in response to markedly better yields for winter grains. That of coarse grains is forecast at 14.9 million tons, 50 percent more than FAO’s estimate for 1996, due to a 24 percent increase in the area and better yields. Output of paddy is expected to increase to 90 000 tons but dry conditions in the spring severely affected pulses and reduced the harvest to about 1 million tons.
Average yields of all grains have remained well below potential due to shortcomings in farm management and crippling shortages of cash and collateral for timely purchase of inputs. Virtually all inputs are obtained via commodity agreements (for grain) with the state or private traders. As farmers give priority to obtaining supplies of fuel and fertilizer and not to herbicides/pesticides, weed and pest infestations are an important reason for the poor yields.
With regard to other crops, excessive moisture in the summer has adversely affected potatoes and vegetables and reduced their storage life. The sugarbeet crop benefited from better precipitation, but shortages of working capital and fuel, as well as poor weather, destroyed the harvest and kept yields low. Output of sunflowers is expected to increase only marginally from last year’s drought reduced level.
The state remains heavily involved in production, trade and marketing and its dominance is bolstered by regional authorities’ freedom to ban the movement of grains until the federal and regional state orders are filled, its control of the grain silos, priority access to the inadequate railway and port facilities and an increasing amount of costly and time-consuming certificates and services which can only be provided by the state. Despite the sizable exportable surplus of grains in 1997/98, estimated at 5-6 million tons, all these constraints coupled with keen competition from the Russian Federation, could limit the country’s exports this year to about 1.6 million tons. To utilize the feed-quality grain surplus, quality standards have been lowered by the government: grade IV wheat has been declared food quality. Waste, stocks and industrial use of grains are all expected to increase. The customs data for 1996/97 indicate that cereal exports totaled 1.6 million tons including nearly 1.3 million tons of wheat. Actual exports are estimated to be somewhat higher in part as flows to Belarus and some official dealings are not included.
The 1997 grain harvest is forecast to reach almost 4 million tons. This is 10 percent above 1996. The area sown remained stable at 1.7 million hectares of which nearly 1 million were irrigated. The average yield on irrigated land increased in response to abundant spring rains and the somewhat better availability of fertilizer, but that on rainfed land was poor as the dry autumn adversely affected crop germination. Shortages of some types of fertilizer and machinery as well as delays and omissions in field work (wheat is planted after cotton is harvested, leaving little or no time for washing the soil) have kept output of small grains (mainly wheat and barley) - nearly 3.4 million tons - well below the target of 4.3 million tons. Whereas the state farms have difficulty in meeting their production target (4 million tons) production of grain on household plots has exceeded the target by one third. Output of vegetables and potatoes are expected to increase. Indications are that the cotton production target of 4 million tons may be met.
Aggregate direct food consumption of cereals and other foodstuffs is limited by low purchasing power. In rural areas grain supplies remain very tight as the cereal delivery quotas have to be met irrespective of whether the production target is achieved. Incomes are also low as only farms that have fulfilled their quotas are allowed to sell any remaining surplus in the open market, where prices are higher than in the state channel and paid in cash. In 1997 40 percent of cotton and 50 percent of grain is subject to compulsory procurement at fixed, low prices. Grain production in excess of the procurement target is purchased at a higher (50-60 percent) contracted price.
In 1997/98, domestic utilization of cereals is estimated at 4.7 million tons, including 3.5 million tons for human consumption, and 0.7 million tons for other uses. Despite the shortage of both concentrated feed and area on which to plant fodder, feed use of grains is estimated to have fallen from 2 million tons in 1992/93 to 0.5 million tons in 1997/98. Given the 1997 grain harvest of 3.75 million tons (rice in milled equivalent) and no change in stocks (which were replenished by 1 million tons between 1 January 1996 and 1 January 1997) cereal imports in 1997/98 are estimated at 0.96 million tons, mainly wheat for human consumption. Some 0.5 million tons are expected to be sourced in Kazakstan and the Russian Federation (to complete a 1996/97 barter contract for cotton), and the balance to come from outside the CIS.
For 1997/98, it is planned to sow 1.65 million hectares to grains, of which 1.4 million to wheat and barley and the balance to rice and maize. The irrigated area sown to wheat and barley is to remain stable at 1 million hectares but the rainfed area is to be reduced further to 310 000 hectares. Aggregate output is targeted to reach 5.1 million tons including 4.2 million tons of wheat and barley. Achievement of this target will depend crucially on more timely and balanced supplies of fertilizers and an upgrading of the irrigation system and the machinery park.
Harvesting of the bulk of the 1997 cereal crops is completed. Aggregate cereal output in the Community is now estimated by FAO at 207 million tons, close to the record crop last year. Harvest delays, caused by rain, affected wheat yields in several countries, and aggregate wheat output is estimated at 95.4 million tons, almost 5 million tons down from last year despite an increase in planted area. However, partially offsetting this decline, the coarse grain crop is now estimated at some 109 million tons, slightly up from previous expectations and about 4 percent above last year. With regard to the winter grain crops which have recently been planted, for harvest in 1998, widespread rainfall in November was generally beneficial for germination and plant establishment. Early indications point to a larger winter wheat area, but at the expense of winter barley in some cases. The land set-aside rate for 1997/98 remains at 5 percent.
Latest information confirms earlier indications of an improvement in cereal production in 1997 although output has remained well below potential. Output of wheat is estimated at about 350 000 tons, compared to just 316 000 tons in 1996. Of this amount however, only a small portion is expected to enter the domestic market with the bulk remaining in the hands of the producers for their own consumption, as animal feed, or for seed for the next crop. As a result, the country will continue to rely heavily on wheat imports in the 1997/98 marketing year to meet demand for bread production, especially in urban areas and for upland rural populations. As of mid November, it is reported that the market continues to be well supplied with flour, mostly from imports. There have been some wheat imports, but in small quantities, which has resulted in high landed costs of wheat, putting the cost of any eventual product beyond the reach of the majority of consumers.
As regards the planting of winter grains for the 1998 harvest, rains over the past weeks have ensured adequate soil moisture for fieldwork and germination and early indications point to a further recovery in wheat plantings. However, improving output will rely largely on farmers’ access to high quality seeds.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (18 November)
The 1997 wheat crop was less than anticipated earlier due to a 15 percent reduction in the areas sown to wheat. By contrast, both the area sown and average yields of maize and potatoes increased sharply. Although agricultural production is recovering steadily, and the total cropped area has increased, the aggregate area sown to the 1996/97 wheat crop fell sharply in both BiH Federation and the Republika Sprska. This is mainly due to ample availability of imported wheat and flour in the market and the poor profitability of wheat vis-à-vis other crops, notably maize and potatoes, which are also easier to grow by smallholders experiencing shortages of machinery and working capital. In BiH Federation the area sown to this crop is estimated to have fallen by up to 15 percent to 29 000 hectares. Given an average yield of 2.6 tons per hectare output is estimated by FAO at 75 000 tons. In the Republika Sprska, FAO now estimates the 1997 wheat harvest at 210 000 tons, from an area of 60 000 hectares. Localized surpluses of potatoes have emerged.
Wheat remains an important staple but in view of the gradual but steady improvement in the agricultural situation and in particular the increase in the output of potatoes, the dependence on this commodity is diminishing gradually. In 1997/98 the aggregate cereal import requirement is now tentatively estimated at around 275 000 tons, mostly for the BiH Federation. In the Republika Srpska, the lower wheat harvest is reported to be adequate to cover human consumption needs
The World Food Programme is expected to provide about 68 100 tons of food aid in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Most of this food will be used in a general distribution programme providing monthly rations to some 600 000 vulnerable families. The selection of beneficiaries is purely based on household needs and covers the BiH Federation as well as Republika Srpska. An additional 6 700 tons of food will be utilized for a variety of small-scale income generating rehabilitation activities in an effort to help people in the transition from dependence back to self- sufficiency.
Latest information confirms a sharply improved cereal crop in 1997. Aggregate cereal output is now estimated at some 6.2 million tons compared to about 3.4 million tons in 1996 as a result of increased plantings and higher yields after last year’s drought-reduced crops. Wheat output is estimated at 3.8 million tons, about average compared to the early nineties, and well above last year’s reduced crop of just 1.8 million tons. However, as a result of some periods of heavy rainfall during the harvest, there is reported to be a higher-than-normal proportion of low (feed) quality wheat. There is concern that the wheat which is still being held privately by farmers will deteriorate further in the coming weeks due to inadequate storage and drying facilities. The maize harvest is reported to be progressing very slowly, mainly reflecting late maturation of the crop but also due to limited serviceable harvesting machinery and farmers’ lack of storage space due to the large quantities of wheat still being held. Maize output is forecast at about 1.5 million tons, but yields are likely to deteriorate the longer crops are left unharvested.
Autumn sowing of winter grains for harvest in 1998 has been significantly hampered by adverse weather in some parts in October but also by farmers’ lack of funds for inputs and lack of machinery. By 20 October (the end of the optimum planting time) the area planted to wheat was well below that at the same time a year ago. Despite an increase in the pace of planting in early November, by mid-November the area sown to wheat and barley, some 900 000 hectares and 230 000 hectares respectively, was still below the area the Government considers desirable to secure the countries requirements in the coming year (1.2 million hectares for wheat and 300 000 hectares for barley).
The 1997 cereal harvest is estimated at 3 million tons, some 12 percent above 1996. This is attributed to an 8 percent increase in the areas sown and better yields. Wheat production rose to 936 000 tons, which is higher than demand. Production of coarse grains is estimated at 2.2 million tons, some 7 percent above last year.
For the 1998 harvest, the area sown to grains is expected to increase sharply as Eastern Slavonia is reintegrated. It is planned to sow some 344 000 hectares to winter grains (1997 :263 000) including 280 000 hectares to wheat ( 206 000 in 1997). Weather conditions have been mostly favourable to date but heavy rains and gale force winds have caused floods and damage to infrastructure in parts of southern Dalmatia.
The latest estimate of 1997 aggregate cereal harvest is 7 million tons, which is about 10 percent up from 1996 and above average for the past 4 years. Most of the increase is attributed to a larger barley crop. With regard to autumn sowing of winter grains for harvest in 1998, which was virtually complete by mid- November, early official reports indicate that the area will remain similar to last year.
Latest reports indicate that the 1997 grain harvest could approach 700 000 tons, some 9 percent more than last year’s output now officially put at 642 000 tons. Growing conditions were good overall for both winter and spring crops and the area sown increased marginally. In 1997/98 cereal imports are estimated at 170 000 tons, including 45 000 tons of food quality wheat and rye.
The planting of winter grains, for harvest in 1997 has been completed under satisfactory conditions.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (19 November)
Output of the 1997 cereal harvest is estimated at 600 000 tons, about 15 percent up from 1996. Output of wheat is estimated at 320 000 tons, that of barley at 125 000 tons and maize at 130 000 tons.
Latest official estimates put the 1997 cereal harvest at about 14 million tons, some 20 percent up from the 1996 reduced level. Output of wheat is officially estimated at 5.3 million tons, compared to 3.9 million tons in 1996, but the quality of the crop is generally poorer than normal due to heavy rainfall in the early summer, and a surplus of feed wheat is expected. With regard to maize, a bumper crop of some 6.5 million tons is estimated, adding to this year’s large surplus of feed grains.
Early prospects for winter grain crops for harvest in 1998 are unfavourable, due to persisting dry weather since August. In many areas where wheat has been planted germination has been delayed, leaving seeds subject to rodent damage, while in other areas the excessively dry soil prevented planting completely. As a result, the winter wheat area is likely to fall significantly from the previous year’s above-average level.
The 1997 output of cereals and pulses is estimated at 1.05 million tons, 8 percent more than last year in response to better weather and an increase of 9 percent in the area sown to 492 000 hectares. Nevertheless, output is not adequate to cover the domestic requirements for foodgrains and imports of some 25 000 tons of wheat and rye are officially reported to be necessary. In addition some 75 000 tons of feedgrains are likely to be imported.
Winter grains for harvest in 1998 have benefited from favourable conditions.
The 1997 grain harvest reached a post-independence record of 3.05 million tons, nearly 0.3 million tons ( or 11 percent ) more than last year. The area sown to grains increased by 8 percent to 1.2 million hectares and growing conditions were good this year. Following two good harvests in succession, the country has ample stocks and an exportable surplus of grain, which, however, is proving difficult to market. Purchases by the government, at determined prices, have been scaled back by 136 000 tons to 304 000 tons. All restrictions on exports have been lifted.
Latest official estimates put 1997 cereal production at 25 million tons, virtually unchanged from last year, despite heavy rains and flooding in July which led to significant crop losses in some parts. Off the total, wheat is estimated to account for 8.3 million tons, somewhat down from last year’s 8.5 million tons. However, this reduction was offset by increased output of barley.
Latest reports indicate that sowing of winter grains for harvest in 1998 proceeded smoothly this autumn. By the end of September, 4.2 million hectares or some 85 percent of the planned area had been sown and following continued favourable weather conditions in October, it is likely that all intended plantings have been completed on an area similar to the previous year’s.
The 1997 cereal output is estimated at about 19.5 million tons, above-average and some 5 million tons up from last year’s drought-reduced level. Of the total, wheat is estimated to account for 7 million tons, but as in other countries throughout the region, the quality of this year’s crop has been affected by excess moisture during the harvest. Yields in some parts were lower than earlier potential indicated and larger than normal storage losses could be expected due to the high humidity of grain is store.
Planting of winter grains for harvest in 1998 has been severely hampered by adverse weather. The start of the autumn planting season was delayed by about one month due to excessive rainfall and the arrival of snows and freezing temperatures in late October brought sowing abruptly to a halt in most regions. By this time only 1.5 million hectares had been sown compared to the planned area of about 2.2 million hectares. It is reported that an acute shortage of funds and equipment added to the problem. If weather conditions improve in the remainder of November planting may continue but the final winter grain area is likely to fall well short of last year’s.
The 1997 cereal output is estimated to be about 3.8 million tons, 500 000 tons up from 1996 and the largest crop of the last 5 years, despite damage to some crops due to heavy rains and flooding during the summer. Wheat output is estimated at nearly 2 million tons, and the proportion of high (bread) quality wheat is expected to be sufficient for domestic consumption in 1997/98 despite a generally poorer quality crop this year.
Cereal output in 1997 has increased by some 10 percent to about 600 000 tons. Early good winter crop potential was cut by spring drought and hail just before harvest in the major producing area, but nevertheless, average wheat and barley yields were about 10 percent up from the poor 1996 levels. Weather conditions in 1997 were particularly good for the summer maize crop; yields are estimated to be some 20 percent up from last year and total output is expected to reach about 400 000 tons.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (24 November)
The 1997 wheat harvest almost doubled to 2.9 million tons in response to a sharp increase in the area sown and better yields. This is enough to meet domestic demand and leave an exportable surplus of up to 400 000 tons. Latest indications are that the 1997 maize harvest could be in excess of 6.7 million tons, also sharply higher than last year.
The early outlook for the 1998 harvest is not good. The target area for wheat, for harvest in the spring of 1998, is 850 00 hectares. Planting progress has been slowed by cold weather and a shortage of working capital and machinery. Only 700 000 hectares had been sown by mid-November, already some 3 weeks beyond the optimum planting time. In addition, there have been problems with the availability of fertilizer.