Uncertainty regarding not only yields, but also the area sown to grains casts doubt on the reliability of production forecasts. Based on extensive discussions with grain traders, many of whom also pre-finance inputs for production, FAO tentatively estimates the 1997/98 area sown to grains at 14.6 million hectares - nearly 1 million hectares less than the official estimate. The 1997 grain harvest is officially forecast at 12.2 million tons, 8 percent more than last year’s official estimate. The area sown to grains is estimated to have fallen by 2.5 million hectares but growing conditions have been better than last year in most areas excluding Akmola and average yields are higher. Early indications are that production of potatoes and vegetables, grown mainly on household plots, will remain close to the last year. Good oilseed yields are forecast to offset the 33 percent decrease in the area sown. Domestic production of sugar is expected to fall sharply.
In 1997/98, given cereal and pulse production of 12.2 million tons and a human consumption requirement of 2.4 million tons, cereal exports in 1997/98 are tentatively forecast to remain mainly wheat to other CIS countries. Relatively low cereal opening stocks, low import demand for barley in neighbouring countries and little progress in opening markets beyond the CIS are expected to reduce coarse grain exports to 0.4 million tons. The quality of the grain is generally good and the Russian Federation is already buying aggressively.
Cereal exports in 1996/97 are officially reported at 2.6 million tons; the actual level, however, is higher, due to unregistered exports. The Russian Federation remains the major market, but Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan accounted for almost 30 percent of estimated exports of 3.1 million tons in 1996/97.