Rainfall in October and early November was favourable for transplanting of the main season rice crop. However, there are serious concerns for the impact of migratory locusts on the 1997/98 crops, as swarms are reported to be moving out of their traditional outbreak areas in the south-west to major agricultural areas of the north-west and the north. An FAO/WFP Mission visited Madagascar in August/September 1997 to assess the damage caused by locusts to crops in the southern part of the country and to evaluate implications for the food supply situation. The Mission found that the southern coastal zone was the area most affected by the combined effect of locusts and poor rainfall, leading to the loss of most of the maize crop and a sharp reduction in the output of other crops such as cassava and sweet potatoes. However, the production shortfall in southern parts of the country has been offset by good harvests in other parts where over 90 percent of national cereal output is produced. Nationally, the Mission estimated the 1997 total cereal harvest at 2.7 million tons, about the same as in 1996. Cassava and sweet potato production were estimated at some 2.83 million tons, down 1.3 percent.
Cereal import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year are forecast at 168 000 tons, three-fourths of which is expected to be supplied through commercial channels and the remainder as food aid. The Mission considered the food supply situation as very precarious in southern coastal areas and recommended urgent food assistance in the form of food-for-work to an estimated 472 000 people for an initial period of 3 months.