Apart from the continuing fertilizer shortage that has hampered crop production such as rice, growing conditions were favourable during the whole growing season and the output should be normal to above normal, excepted in the south-west, where some maize growing areas had very limited precipitation in July and the first half of August. The dry period, which usually occurs in July, lasted much longer than usual. In large areas, no rains occurred between mid July and late September, delaying the planting of the second season crops. Satellite imagery as of the end of October, shows about average vegetation in the south and above average in the north, and the overall crop prospects are good. In the south and the centre, the second maize crop is growing satisfactorily while irrigated rice is being harvested. African migratory locusts infestations are likely to develop in north-eastern Nigeria, from recently reported swarms in southern Chad, and could damage the millet and sorghum crops that are currently harvested.
Food supply is still constrained by high levels of post-harvest losses and high distribution costs. Shortages of fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides were reported during the whole growing season. As a result, many farmers have switched from rice and maize to millet, sorghum and groundnuts, which are less fertilizer dependent. A decrease in rice and maize production is expected for 1997, but might be compensated by a higher output of millet and sorghum depending on the development of the locust infestation. This is likely to have an impact in the neighbouring countries, notably Niger and Chad, which usually import coarse grains from Nigeria to cover their needs. It might also increase the need for rice imports. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 1 250 000 tons, including 900 000 tons of wheat and 250 000 tons of rice.