Following widespread good rains in late August, little or no rains were received in September and the first decade of October. As a result, the second official forecast of the wheat crop, the harvesting of which is nearing completion, dropped from 2.8 million tons in September to 2.3 million tons. This is slightly below the 1996 above average level but still above the country's consumption needs of around 2.5 million tons. Rainfall has been abundant and widespread since mid-October, providing conditions for farmers to prepare land and start planting in some areas. Producers of maize, the country's most important crop and an important source of foreign exchange, have started preparing for an El Niño related drought, and farmers have been advised to plant only on their most moisture-rich soils.
Total cereal output in 1997 is estimated at 11.9 million tons, 12 percent below 1996, but above the average for the previous five years. Official final estimate of the maize crop indicate an output of 9 million tons, which is some 0.5 million tons higher than anticipated, due to better harvests in Free State, North-west and Gauteng provinces. As a result of the good 1997 harvest, the country may have over 1 million tons of maize to export, with private traders allowed to export any amount of maize for the first time in decades following full deregulation this year. The wheat industry also became deregulated in November following the dismantling of the state-owned Wheat Board. Although a large part of the available maize and wheat may be exported to countries in the sub-region that had reduced harvest this year, some farmers may choose to store more of their grain given concerns over a possible drought later in the year due to the El Niño phenomenon, particularly since South Africa’s maize triangle is among the areas most likely to experience below-normal rainfall as a result of this year’s El Niño.