Land preparation and early planting has started in northern parts of the country for the 1997/98 season. As the country is located north of the area presumed to be affected by the El Niño phenomenon, the impact on crops is anticipated to be minor. As in the past few years, NGO, donors and UN agency interventions will be highly needed for the supply of required agricultural inputs (seeds, tools and fertilizers) to internally displaced persons and returnees, and to farmers in main producing areas.
The national food supply situation continues to be tight. Due to the tense security situation of the past few months, access to some 20 to 40 percent of the country is limited and food difficulties are reported in some remote areas affected by drought (Cuanza Sul and Namibe). Food aid pledges by donors amount to 237 000 tons so far, of which 161 000 tons have been delivered.
Localized rains in southern parts of the country in October improved conditions for land preparation for 1998 cereal crops to be planted in the next few months. In anticipation of a possible El Niño related drought later in the season, national authorities are advising farmers to take advantage of early rains to plant fast maturing crops such as millet or short season sorghum. Estimates of the 1997 coarse grain crop stand at 27 000 tons, including 21 000 tons of millet and sorghum, which is one-third of last year’s crop. Maize production dropped to 6 000 tons against last year's 23 000 tons as a result of adverse weather conditions and pests.
The food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be satisfactory as cereal import requirements are likely to be met commercially.
Following abnormally dry conditions in September and October , light rains in Late October improved conditions for land preparation and planting of the 1997/98 cereal crops. Some delays in planting summer wheat and maize are reported in mountain areas while in lowland areas, land preparation and early planting of fast maturing varieties are underway. Harvest expectations for the winter wheat now at maturing stage have been revised downward as a result of the lack of rainfall in September. The Government has warned farmers about the likelihood of poor rainfall this crop season as a result of the El Niño phenomenon. Farmers have been encouraged to plant various drought resistant crops and use hybrid seeds.
Reflecting a below-average cereal harvest which was much lower than the record crop in 1996, the national food supply situation for the current marketing year remains tight. The cereal import requirement is expected to be about 260 000 tons, including some 95 000 tons of food aid. Food aid pledged so far amounts to 10 000 tons, which have already been delivered.
Rainfall in October and early November was favourable for transplanting of the main season rice crop. However, there are serious concerns for the impact of migratory locusts on the 1997/98 crops, as swarms are reported to be moving out of their traditional outbreak areas in the south-west to major agricultural areas of the north-west and the north. An FAO/WFP Mission visited Madagascar in August/September 1997 to assess the damage caused by locusts to crops in the southern part of the country and to evaluate implications for the food supply situation. The Mission found that the southern coastal zone was the area most affected by the combined effect of locusts and poor rainfall, leading to the loss of most of the maize crop and a sharp reduction in the output of other crops such as cassava and sweet potatoes. However, the production shortfall in southern parts of the country has been offset by good harvests in other parts where over 90 percent of national cereal output is produced. Nationally, the Mission estimated the 1997 total cereal harvest at 2.7 million tons, about the same as in 1996. Cassava and sweet potato production were estimated at some 2.83 million tons, down 1.3 percent.
Cereal import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year are forecast at 168 000 tons, three-fourths of which is expected to be supplied through commercial channels and the remainder as food aid. The Mission considered the food supply situation as very precarious in southern coastal areas and recommended urgent food assistance in the form of food-for-work to an estimated 472 000 people for an initial period of 3 months.
Little rain has been received over the country so far. Given concerns about a possible El Niño-induced drought in the upcoming crop season, the government has initiated contingency plans and is encouraging the planting of drought-resistant crops (such as cassava, sweet potatoes, millet, and sorghum) as well as water conservation.
Revised official estimates of the 1997 maize harvest indicate an output of 1.5 million tons, down from an initial forecast of about 2 million tons. As a result, the food supply situation during the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be tighter than anticipated. The country will need to import up to 300 000 tons of maize, part of which could be obtained from neighbouring countries. On 31 October, the Government issued an appeal to the donor community for financial support to import 87 000 tons of maize for commercial sales as well as for support to the distribution costs of a limited relief maize programme and other relief support activities. Pledges amount to 55 000 tons so far, of which 6 000 tons have been delivered.
Preparation for the 1997/98 crop season has started amidst serious concerns over a possible El Niño-related drought. The government has initiated an information campaign to raise the population’s awareness, particularly of the need to prepare contingency plans.
Following the good cereal harvest in 1997 of 1.53 million tons, including record maize output of 1.04 million tons, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Cereal import requirements are estimated at 205 000 tons of rice and wheat, compared to over 300 000 tons in the previous years. Food aid, estimated at about 112 000 tons of grain, is primarily for vulnerable people in remote areas and in regions affected by floods earlier in the year. Pledges to date amount to 206 000 tons, of which 82 000 tons have been delivered.
Namibia is seen as borderline country in the sub-region which may experience reduced rainfall related to El Niño this season. As a result, the Government established an inter-ministerial committee responsible for assessing various aspects of a possible emergency in relation to agriculture, livestock, water shortages, the environment, the budget and the national economy.
1997 cereal production is now estimated at a record 171 300 tons, following a downward revision of forecast of the winter wheat crop, from 6 300 tons to 4 900 tons. Total output is still almost double last year. The food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory during the 1997/98 marketing year. Cereal requirements are expected to be covered by commercial channels.
Following widespread good rains in late August, little or no rains were received in September and the first decade of October. As a result, the second official forecast of the wheat crop, the harvesting of which is nearing completion, dropped from 2.8 million tons in September to 2.3 million tons. This is slightly below the 1996 above average level but still above the country's consumption needs of around 2.5 million tons. Rainfall has been abundant and widespread since mid-October, providing conditions for farmers to prepare land and start planting in some areas. Producers of maize, the country's most important crop and an important source of foreign exchange, have started preparing for an El Niño related drought, and farmers have been advised to plant only on their most moisture-rich soils.
Total cereal output in 1997 is estimated at 11.9 million tons, 12 percent below 1996, but above the average for the previous five years. Official final estimate of the maize crop indicate an output of 9 million tons, which is some 0.5 million tons higher than anticipated, due to better harvests in Free State, North-west and Gauteng provinces. As a result of the good 1997 harvest, the country may have over 1 million tons of maize to export, with private traders allowed to export any amount of maize for the first time in decades following full deregulation this year. The wheat industry also became deregulated in November following the dismantling of the state-owned Wheat Board. Although a large part of the available maize and wheat may be exported to countries in the sub-region that had reduced harvest this year, some farmers may choose to store more of their grain given concerns over a possible drought later in the year due to the El Niño phenomenon, particularly since South Africa’s maize triangle is among the areas most likely to experience below-normal rainfall as a result of this year’s El Niño.
Widespread unseasonable rains fell over most parts of the country in September and October, providing sufficient moisture for land preparation and early planting of the 1997/98 maize crop. However, as the country is in an area expected to be severely affected by El Niño, farmers have been warned of the increased likelihood of drought and encouraged to take steps to reduce production risks during the season. The 1997 maize harvest has been revised upward and is now estimated at 85 000 tons, which is slightly above average but well below last year’s crop.
The overall food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to remain satisfactory due to the availability of large carryover stocks from the good maize harvest of 1996. All cereal imports during the year are expected to be covered through commercial channels.
Localized rains fell over northern and far north-western parts in late October and land preparation is underway for the planting of the 1997/98 cereal crops to be harvested from April. As much of the country is expected to experience below-normal rainfall during the upcoming season as a result of the current El Niño phenomenon, drought warnings have been issued by the Government. Farmers have been advised to plant at different dates using several varieties of short-season maize.
1997 cereal production is estimated at 1.1 million tons, including maize output of 0.96 million tons, 32 percent lower than last year. The output of paddy and sorghum is also forecast to decline by some 14 percent and 6 percent respectively from 1996. In contrast, millet production is forecast to remain unchanged at some 55 000 tons.
Reflecting reduced domestic availability, the food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year is expected to be tighter than the previous year. However, cereal import requirements of some 320 000 tons are expected to be covered through commercial channels. Much of the maize imports are expected to originate from countries in the sub-region, particularly South Africa and Zimbabwe.
Relatively good early rains were received in September but widespread planting rains started only in mid-November which may prompt many farmers to start planting coarse grain crops to be harvested from April. As the country is considered to be one of those at risk of below-normal rainfall this season as a result of the El Niño phenomenon, farmers have been advised to plant early and use drought-resistant seeds.
1997 cereal production is estimated at 2.7 million tons, compared to 3.1 million tons in 1996. The maize crop amounts to 2.2 million tons, 16 percent lower than last year’s good harvest but slightly above average. The output of millet and sorghum is estimated at about 220 000 tons, about the same as the above- average crop in 1996.
The national food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory during the 1997/98 marketing year. Maize supply is expected to cover requirements, including the replenishment of stocks, and to leave an exportable surplus of some 400 000 tons.