Sporadic eruptions of civil strife and the dire economic situation in the country make reliable and systematic information very difficult to collect and data on supply and demand for food remain extremely tentative. The 1997 grain harvest is estimated by FAO and the EC-TACIS in-country staff at about 0.6 million tons, even higher than the good 1996 harvest now officially estimated at 543 000 tons. The area sown to wheat increased further at the expense of coarse grains, fodder crops and to a lesser extent cotton. Growing conditions this year were better than last year. Grain yields vary hugely depending on the quality of the land, (irrigated, salinated or not) and on the farmers’ access to inputs. The average yield of wheat in two project zones where the farmers were supplied with a full package of inputs were 2.95 tons and 2.25 tons respectively this year. However, these zones are not representative of the country and a national average yield of 1.5 tons per hectare has been adopted. Although low, (and likely representing yields after production expenses have been paid in kind), it reflects a situation in which every available piece of non-state owned land, whether suitable for cropping or not, has been sown to wheat. Output of fodder crops and to a lesser extent most other foodcrops is estimated to have declined as an increasing amount of land was diverted to wheat. Output of cotton, the main cash crop, is expected to recover from last year’s poor level but to remain below average.
The food security situation remains precarious as a result of intermittent civil strife and widespread unemployment, underemployment, inadequate land tenure and increasingly ineffective social security provisions. The findings of the first nation-wide food vulnerability assessment - carried out by the EC this year- are that 16.4 percent of the population are food insecure and cannot afford an adequate diet without targeted assistance. This percentage varies somewhat between regions, but is fairly evenly divided between rural and urban areas.
Even with the higher cereal production in 1997, the country could face a foodgrain deficit. The size of this deficit depends crucially on the resident population, estimated by the UN at 5.5 million but possibly 1.8 million lower. Estimating feed and other uses (mainly seed) at 140 000 tons, and per caput cereal consumption of 360 grams per person per day, the requirement for human consumption would be 740 000 tons for a population of 5.5 million. Against this domestic requirement, cereal production (excluding pulses and milled rice) is estimated at 583 000 tons, leaving an import requirement of virtually 300 000 tons. However this requirement would be reduced if a lower population assumption is used. The commercial import capacity is unlikely to exceed last year’s level, estimated at some 160 000 tons, leaving a food aid requirement of 137 000 tons under the higher population scenario. Some 90 000 tons have already been pledged to date. The humanitarian relief needs for the vulnerable population will remain large.