RUSSIAN FEDERATION (14 November)

The 1997 grain harvest is estimated at 85 million tons, including about 44 million tons of wheat (of which less than 20 million tons is food-quality wheat). The area sown to grains remained fairly stable, with slight decreases in the areas sown to winter wheat and barley more than offset by increases in spring sowings. The tendency in the last several years of shifting grain production from feed to food grain is drawing to a close. Though wheat production for food is highly profitable, the proportion of this profitable grain in the harvest is diminishing as a result of inadequate use of pesticides, herbicides, and improved seed. This year this trend has been aggravated by excessive rains in some regions and serious pest infestation in major food wheat producing areas. With regard to other crops, the potato harvest could be somewhat less than the last year given the reduction in the area sown. Production of vegetables will most likely stay at the same level. The area sown to oilseeds has decreased this year by about 7 percent but yields are somewhat better.

In 1997/98 domestic utilization is estimated at 80 million tons, including nearly 21 million tons for human consumption and the balance for feed and other uses. Given the harvest forecast and the large proportion of feed-quality grain therein, it is likely that feed use of grains will increase despite better forage supplies and the continuing cut back in animal numbers. The extent of the increase in feed use will depend crucially on developments in domestic prices for feed and export opportunities. Losses are forecast to grow as a result of a shift to on-farm grain storage.

Cereal exports (including intra-CIS trade) in 1996/97 are officially reported at about 0.9 million tons and imports at 2.9 million tons (including 0.4 million tons of rice)

In 1997/98 the high proportion of feed-quality grain in the harvest implies excess of domestic supply and a large exportable surplus of these grains. However export opportunities of feed grain are limited by ample supplies and low prices on the international markets and by the high domestic costs associated with grain assembling, handling and transportation and also by the limited facilities at the ports. Cereal exports (including intra-CIS trade) in 1997/98 are tentatively estimated at 3 million tons, roughly divided 65/35 between barley and feed wheat unless Polish demand for feedgrains is larger than expected because of its poor harvest. Extra-CIS trade is tentatively forecast at 0.4 million tons of wheat and 1.9 million tons of coarse grains (barley).

Cereal imports are forecast at 2.9 million tons, including 2 million tons of wheat, 0.4 million tons of rice and some coarse grains. Imports are, again tentatively, forecast at 0.9 million tons, including 0.5 million tons of food quality wheat, 0.4 tons of rice and a small quantity of maize.

WFP food distributions for Chechen refugees in the northern Caucasus (including Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Daghestan) were terminated in September.