The 1997 grain harvest is forecast to reach almost 4 million tons. This is 10 percent above 1996. The area sown remained stable at 1.7 million hectares of which nearly 1 million were irrigated. The average yield on irrigated land increased in response to abundant spring rains and the somewhat better availability of fertilizer, but that on rainfed land was poor as the dry autumn adversely affected crop germination. Shortages of some types of fertilizer and machinery as well as delays and omissions in field work (wheat is planted after cotton is harvested, leaving little or no time for washing the soil) have kept output of small grains (mainly wheat and barley) - nearly 3.4 million tons - well below the target of 4.3 million tons. Whereas the state farms have difficulty in meeting their production target (4 million tons) production of grain on household plots has exceeded the target by one third. Output of vegetables and potatoes are expected to increase. Indications are that the cotton production target of 4 million tons may be met.
Aggregate direct food consumption of cereals and other foodstuffs is limited by low purchasing power. In rural areas grain supplies remain very tight as the cereal delivery quotas have to be met irrespective of whether the production target is achieved. Incomes are also low as only farms that have fulfilled their quotas are allowed to sell any remaining surplus in the open market, where prices are higher than in the state channel and paid in cash. In 1997 40 percent of cotton and 50 percent of grain is subject to compulsory procurement at fixed, low prices. Grain production in excess of the procurement target is purchased at a higher (50-60 percent) contracted price.
In 1997/98, domestic utilization of cereals is estimated at 4.7 million tons, including 3.5 million tons for human consumption, and 0.7 million tons for other uses. Despite the shortage of both concentrated feed and area on which to plant fodder, feed use of grains is estimated to have fallen from 2 million tons in 1992/93 to 0.5 million tons in 1997/98. Given the 1997 grain harvest of 3.75 million tons (rice in milled equivalent) and no change in stocks (which were replenished by 1 million tons between 1 January 1996 and 1 January 1997) cereal imports in 1997/98 are estimated at 0.96 million tons, mainly wheat for human consumption. Some 0.5 million tons are expected to be sourced in Kazakstan and the Russian Federation (to complete a 1996/97 barter contract for cotton), and the balance to come from outside the CIS.
For 1997/98, it is planned to sow 1.65 million hectares to grains, of which 1.4 million to wheat and barley and the balance to rice and maize. The irrigated area sown to wheat and barley is to remain stable at 1 million hectares but the rainfed area is to be reduced further to 310 000 hectares. Aggregate output is targeted to reach 5.1 million tons including 4.2 million tons of wheat and barley. Achievement of this target will depend crucially on more timely and balanced supplies of fertilizers and an upgrading of the irrigation system and the machinery park.
Harvesting of the bulk of the 1997 cereal crops is completed. Aggregate cereal output in the Community is now estimated by FAO at 207 million tons, close to the record crop last year. Harvest delays, caused by rain, affected wheat yields in several countries, and aggregate wheat output is estimated at 95.4 million tons, almost 5 million tons down from last year despite an increase in planted area. However, partially offsetting this decline, the coarse grain crop is now estimated at some 109 million tons, slightly up from previous expectations and about 4 percent above last year. With regard to the winter grain crops which have recently been planted, for harvest in 1998, widespread rainfall in November was generally beneficial for germination and plant establishment. Early indications point to a larger winter wheat area, but at the expense of winter barley in some cases. The land set-aside rate for 1997/98 remains at 5 percent.