The rainy season started in late March and was generally favourable. However, a dry period, which usually occurs in late July/early August, lasted much longer than usual, delaying the second season planting in the south. The vegetation index from satellite imagery shows normal to above normal vegetation in October. Millet and sorghum are currently being harvested in the north. Food supply prospects for 1997/98 are good in Atacora province, mixed in Borgou due to irregular rains, and about normal in the southern part of the country. Areas planted during the first growing season are below normal for maize, but well above normal for other crops, notably millet, sorghum, rice and yams. First production estimates point to about 916 000 tons of cereals and 2.5 million tons of roots and tubers, which is well above average.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Following the harvest of yams and the first maize and sorghum crops, prices have decreased on the markets which are adequately supplied. The Government is setting up a security stock of about 1 000 tons of maize and assisting with the establishment of on-farm stocks. There are about 11 000 Togolese refugees remaining in Benin. The cereal import requirement for 1997 (January/December) is estimated at 190 000 tons (including re-exports), mostly wheat and rice, including 16 000 tons of food aid.
The 1997 rainy season began relatively early at the beginning of April in the southwest of the country. The rains then moved northwards in May and covered the entire country in June. Rainfall in July was characterized by pockets of drought in the centre, east and north. There was little rainfall in August compared to previous years, especially in the first dekad. Sowing and resowing were staggered until late August, particularly in the centre, centre-north and east, where incidences of drought required replanting until mid-August. The situation improved during the first dekad of September but then degenerated somewhat in the last two dekads of the month, damaging the still young and flowering crops, particularly in the north and centre. The rains in October arrived too late to remedy the situation in many parts of the country.
The pest situation has been calm throughout the growing season, except for some grasshopper infestations of millet, sorghum and maize.
Cereal production for the 1997/98 year has been estimated by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October/November at 2 275 000 tons, which is 8 percent down from 1996 and 7 percent below the five-year average. This is in fact the lowest level since 1990 and is the result of declines in the output of millet, sorghum and rice by 9 percent, 13 percent and 12 percent respectively. Maize and fonio, on the other hand, have posted increases of 13 and 18 percent. In comparison to average production levels for 1992/93 to 1996/97, rice is expected to be up by 39 percent and maize by 14 percent, while millet, sorghum and fonio should register decreases of between 9 and 14 percent. Only six of the 30 provinces will increase production over last year, and many provinces might register sizeable falls - in some cases more than 40 percent down from 1996.
Reflecting the below-average harvest, the overall food supply situation will be tight in the areas which gathered reduced crops. Markets are generally well supplied except for maize. Cereal prices remain stable and lower than last year except in Ouagadougou and Fada N�Gourma. The Government has planned a meeting with donor representatives in early December to present a plan of action in order to provide assistance in the affected areas. The emergency food aid needs have been estimated at 67 200 tons to cover consumption requirements of 800 000 people for 7 months. Deficits in affected areas can be covered by transfer of cereals from surplus provinces, for which external assistance is required. Cereal needs for ongoing food aid programmes can also be covered by local purchases. Tuareg refugees from Mali are receiving food assistance.
Rainfall was poorly distributed in 1997. The rains arrived at the end of August, one month later than normal and stopped in early October when the maize was at flowering stage. Most of the crops planted in July on Santiago and Fogo Islands were lost and resowing was undertaken on both islands. The first two dekads of September were very wet on all the islands and favoured maize growth. However, the lack of rainfall beginning in the second dekad of October coincided with the flowering phase and adversely affected the maize crop in the archipelago.
The pest situation was relatively calm, though locust infestation on Santiago, Maio and Boavista, caused some damage to the maize crop and pasture. Heavy rains of August and September replenished groundwater, thus extending the irrigated area and improving livestock nutrition and health in pastoral areas.
The improved rainfall on Santiago and San Nicolau and seed availability enabled planting of a larger area to maize: 33 311 hectares this year against 32 127 hectares in 1996/97, an increase of 3.7 percent. This represents an increase in planted area of 2 percent relative to the five-year average. However, the lack of rain in October wiped out the maize crop everywhere except on the islands of Santiago and Fogo, where the harvest prospects are slightly better. National maize output is estimated at 1 137 tons against 1 304 tons in 1996/97, a drop of 13 percent. This is the worst harvest since 1987 and is 84 percent below the five-year average.
Despite the two successive reductions in harvest, the overall food supply situation will remain satisfactory as the country imports the bulk of its consumption requirement. However, rural populations, notably in the semi-arid or arid zones, will be severely affected and may need assistance.
The rains in 1997 were irregular and unevenly distributed. Except for sporadic rainfall in late March in the extreme south of the Sudanian zone, precipitation in this zone was generally good through September. In the Sahelian zone, the first rains came in the first dekad of June. Rainfall was generally good in June and July in all production areas, but in September rains were mostly sporadic, uneven and insufficient. Cumulative rainfall by late July, at the end of the rainy season, was close to the average and only slightly down from 1996.
In the Sudanian zone sowing started in the third dekad of April and sowing and resowing continued until July/August. Crops were relatively healthy in this area, despite slight damage to the millet and sorghum from insect infestation and localized withering due to dry spells. In the Sudano-Sahelian zones, first seeding took place in June, but the millet and sorghum crops withered when the rains ceased in the third dekad of June. This necessitated resowing in July and August. The very low rainfall of September caused further withering and some fields were abandoned.
The Desert Locust situation has been relatively calm throughout the season. In contrast, the African migratory locust has been reported since early September in the Dourbali zone (Massenya) and along the Mandalia-Guelendeng axis (Mayo-Kebbi), in a 10 km band each side of a line between Logone and Chari Rivers, as well as in Doum-Doum (Lac). There has been staggered reproduction and the population is in all stages of growth. Hoppers have been reported in the canton of Madiago and along the Linia-Dourbali axis to the southeast of N�Djamena. There have also been some severe attacks which caused localized destruction of sorghum nurseries and transplanted recession crops. Some damage to rainfed millet and sorghum has also been observed. Unless timely control measures are taken, the African migratory locust poses a threat to crops not only in Chad but also in northern Cameroon. Elsewhere, grasshoppers have been reported in the late millet and sorghum crops in the prefectures of Ouadda�, Biltine, Lac, Kanem, Batha, Guera, Chari-Baguimi and Mayo-Kebbi. Their presence has caused some farmers to harvest their cereals before full maturity.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated total cereal production for 1997/98 at 993 300 tons which is 13 percent up from 1996 and 9 percent above the five-year average. The increase is mainly due to maize and rice, which increased by 36 percent and 47 percent respectively. In contrast, pearl millet is expected to be down by about 7 percent. This assumes that control measures are taken against the African migratory locust, particularly in areas where flood recession sorghum and long- cycle cereals are grown.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be better in 1997/98 than in 1996/97, except in the areas affected by African migratory locusts attacks on recession crops. Markets are generally well supplied and millet prices are declining in the Sahelian zone reflecting good harvest prospects. The national security stock is exhausted, and this will impede possible interventions in vulnerable areas. Its recommended level is 22 000 tons, as estimated by an FAO mission in 1995. Donors are urged to assist with local purchases for the reconstitution of the national security stock.
The rainy season started in early March in the south, and in late March in the north and rains were abundant and widespread until late June. A significant reduction occurred in July, August and early September over the south and the centre, where precipitation has been well below normal. Rainfall resumed and remained widespread from late September to early November. In the north, the harvest of millet and sorghum is drawing to an end and a good output is expected following favourable growing conditions. In the south, rice is being harvested. Following poor rains from mid July to mid September in the south, the main maize and rice production is expected to be reduced compared to previous years. Upland rice, which accounts for the bulk of the Ivorian rice production has been severely affected by the dry period. The planting of the second maize crop, which usually takes place in late August/early September could not start before late September, due to a lack of rain. As a result, the second maize crop output might be poor if the rainy season stops before maturity.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are adequately supplied. However, rice prices are higher than last year during the same period, probably due to reduced crop output and an increase in import taxes. The cereal import requirement for 1997 (January/December), is estimated at 505 000 tons, mostly wheat and rice.
About 305 000 Liberian refugees are present in the western departments. Their nutritional status is reported to be adequate. Most of them are expected to repatriate in 1998, following improved security in Liberia. Food assistance is provided to 50 000 vulnerable people, and 30 000 children through school feeding.
Rains in May in the east and in June in the rest of the country permitted early planting of coarse grains and upland rice. The rains continued until the first dekad of July when they were interrupted by a dry spell. The cessation of rains in mid-July stressed early maize and millet crops, which were then at a critical stage of development. Grazing conditions were also affected adversely, particularly in the North Bank Division, where farmers were forced to move herds southwards. However, abundant rains in August improved grazing conditions. There was extensive resowing, particularly in the North Bank Division (NBD), the region most affected. The lack of rains also delayed the transplanting of rice. Despite the resumption of rainfall in mid-August, virtually all the maize crop was lost, as well as part of the early millet and sorghum crops. Replanting of upland rice was undertaken but seed shortages prevented its completion. The mangrove rice which was transplanted in early August is growing under good conditions. The early millet was harvested in late September, one month later than usual. The groundnut harvest should be good despite a seed shortage, provided that the rains continue through October. Precipitation was ample in most areas during the second dekad of August until early October. Only in the southern part of the Lower River Division (LRD) was precipitation low. Overall, cumulative rainfall was close to normal and higher than last year.
Crops were also affected by caterpillar infestation. Aphid attack has also caused damage to the millet and groundnut crops. Maize and millet also suffered from downy mildew in late September in the Upper River Division (URD). An upsurge of striga has been reported in several divisions of the country.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated aggregate cereal output for 1997 at 84 750 tons, some 24 percent lower than last year and substantially below average. This is largely due to the sharp decline in the outputs of maize and upland rice.
As a consequence, the food supply situation is anticipated to be tight. The most affected areas are Badibou and Jokadou in the North Bank Division (NBD), Saloum in the northern part of Central River Division (CRD); Wulli and Sandou in the north of the Upper River Division (URD). However, good prospects for groundnut production are likely to ease the income situation of farmers in some areas.
The rainy season started in mid March and rains remained widespread until the third dekad of June when they decreased significantly. Rainfall remained very limited in the south and the centre during July and the first half of August, and resumed from late August to late October. Although August is usually a dry month in the south, the dry period was longer than usual this year, and is likely to have affected the rice and maize crops in this area, and also delayed the planting of the second maize crop. Millet and sorghum are currently being harvested in the north and the prospects are favourable. In the south, cereal output is expected to be about or below average due to erratic rainfall. Like in 1996, the production of roots and tubers is likely to be higher than average, and to compensate for the decrease in cereal production. First estimates point to a 1997 production of 1.724 million tons of cereals, which is below last year�s level and about 13 million tons of roots and tubers.
The food supply situation is satisfactory. Some Togolese refugees still remain in Ghana after large repatriations in 1996. About 30 000 Liberian refugees are also receiving food assistance. The 1997 cereal import requirement is estimated at 387 000 tons, mostly wheat and rice.
Rains started in late March in the extreme south-east, increased in the south in April and became abundant over the entire country from May to September. Cumulative precipitation as of early November is above average. Planted areas for the 1997 growing season are slightly larger than last year, normal to above average for rice, cassava and peanuts, and below average for maize and fonio. The main food crops are currently being harvested and are expected to be about normal. However, the large number of refugees in some of the main producing areas is causing substantial damage, including soil degradation and deforestation.
Latest estimates put the total number of Liberian and Sierra Leonean refugees in Guinea at 545 000. Food assistance is provided to 60 000 Sierra Leoneans and 105 000 Liberian refugees. New refugees have arrived from Sierra Leone, notably in Maritime and Forest Guinea. Although some of the Liberian refugees are expected to return to Liberia in 1998, the presence of refugees is increasing the demand for food which results in rapid depletion of stocks available and price increases. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 375 000 tons.
Rainfall throughout the country has been good this year. Early sowing was undertaken in May and rains in subsequent months were regular and abundant. In August and September, there was localized flooding in the mangroves of the south and in lowlands in the east. Cumulative rainfall as of 30 September was higher than last year but lower than normal levels. However, the heavy rains in October could impact negatively on harvest levels, particularly lowland rice in the north and east.
There has been a substantial caterpillar infestation of rice, millet and fonio. Some 5 000 hectares have been infested, resulting in an estimated 15-20 percent damage. Good rainfall has favoured pasture growth and replenished water points, ensuring adequate feed for livestock.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission visited the country in late October. The planted area is estimated at 156 300 hectares, slightly up from last year and 26 percent higher than the 1992- 1995 average. In comparison to the 1996/97 growing season, the area under rainfed cereals has increased by 4.6 percent while rice has fallen by 0.6 percent, mainly because of a marked reduction in mangrove rice cultivation due to a labour shortage. Preliminary assessments indicate an aggregate cereal output of 186 600 tons, 29 percent higher than last year and above the average for the last five years.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are generally well supplied and prices remain mostly stable. Following entrance of Guinea-Bissau into the UMOA (Union Mon�taire Ouest Africaine) and the Franc zone, food prices have somewhat increased, notably for rice which will limit its accessibility for the poor section of the urban population. Therefore, the nutritional situation remains somewhat worrying, particularly in the urban areas. While non-cereal crops, such as cassava, sweet potato, haricot bean and cashew, will help cover a large proportion of food needs in rural areas, the low purchasing power in towns and galloping inflation could seriously undermine urban access to food supplies.
Rainfall decreased in July and August in the west, stopped in the east, and resumed in early September, becoming widespread over the entire country at the end of the month. Cumulative rainfall as of early November is reported to be normal but rains have been rather irregular during the growing season. Rice is currently being harvested. Relative peace and stability continue to prevail throughout the country and have encouraged farming activities. Agricultural activities during the growing season have been close to normal in Lofa, Bong and Nimba counties considered to be the grain basket of the country. Although a shortage of hand tools and rice seed were limiting factors, this was alleviated by a massive seed and tool distribution programme. Preliminary reports show that some 118 000 vulnerable families, or some 55 percent of the total, should have been reached by the seed and tool distribution programme. No major climatic constraint or pest have been reported. Rice and cassava yields should be similar to the estimates for the 1996 growing season and the current FAO estimates for 1997 point to about 170 000 tons of paddy and 280 000 tons of cassava, which is substantially higher than last year.
Following the return of thousands of refugees from neighbouring countries, the price of rice is rising rapidly. Most people have turned to cassava as a substitute, but prices are also increasing. The food supply situation is improving following recovery of commercial activities. Food aid is being distributed to about 250 000 displaced people, 165 000 vulnerable people, 125 000 children through school feeding, and 94 000 in food for work programmes. Food supply on the urban market is stable although most of the available food is coming from humanitarian assistance. The food supply situation in rural areas is easing as the main crop is being harvested. Overall, Liberia remains heavily dependent on food aid, especially the counties with a high number of returnees.
Rainfall in 1997 has on the whole been regular and evenly distributed. This has made up for localized late rains and pockets of drought that occurred throughout the season. The onset of the rainy season in May was normal, with rain-gauge readings normal to high in most stations. The June rains were unevenly distributed but generally higher than last year. The different agricultural zones received ample rains in July and cumulative amount was higher than or equal to normal in most of the stations of the south and centre. Rainfall throughout the country was also abundant in August, with a cumulative amount on 31 August reaching normal values. Rains were generally normal throughout September and in the first two dekads of October in most of the country.
Rainfed sowing started in May and June in the Sudanian zone and in part of the Sahelian zone. By July this activity was widespread. Although planting this year in the Sahelian zone started earlier than normal because of the early rains in May and June, the interruption of rainfall in late June hampered seeding and necessitated resowing in several areas. However, the main cereal crops (maize, sorghum, millet and rice) were not affected except in the regions of Tombouctou, Gao and Mopti where rainfall caused flooding before rice germination leading to lower-than-normal yields.
The locust situation was on the whole calm, except for an occasional adult Desert Locust in Adrar des Iforas in the north. Large numbers of grain-eating birds caused damage to the rice crop in Segou. Aerial and ground operations helped to prevent bird attacks and minimize losses, but vigilance is required as nests have not been destroyed. Prospects for livestock are satisfactory, as grazing conditions have generally been good, except in Nara, Tombouctou, Menaka and in the north of the Kayes and Mopti regions.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated 1997/98 aggreate cereal production at 2.4 million tons which is 7 percent higher than last year and above the five-year average. The increase is largely due to an increase in area under maize and sorghum and good yields of rice, maize and sorghum. The output of millet is also expected to exceed the five-year average. The impact of a slight drop in the area planted had been offset by a rise in yields. Sorghum is down by 14 percent from the average of the last five years, but output of secondary crops such as wheat and fonio have increased. Overall, while the major agricultural regions (Koulikoro, Sikasso, S�gou) are expected to achieve increased cereal production, shortfalls are anticipated in the regions of Mopti and Tombouctou.
Following the good harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and cereal prices decreased since August/September, reaching levels generally much lower than those of 1996 at the same period. The national security stock is at 29 500 tons of millet or sorghum, which is higher than last year and will facilitate interventions during next marketing year, if needed. Stocks are available in the most at-risk areas, notably in Tombouctou and Gao regions. Food assistance is given to the Tuaregs who have returned from neighbouring countries. Exportable surpluses are available for triangular transactions with neighbouring countries affected by deficits, notably northern and central Senegal, Mauritania and some areas of Niger and Burkina Faso.
The season began with low and scattered rainfall in May in the agricultural parts of the country. Rains in June in the centre- south, south and east were heavy. However, the interruption in rainfall in July-August in the southwest caused wilting of the rainfed crops. There were insufficient seeds for resowing when the rains resumed in late August. These rains filled the dams and reservoirs in most of the country and even caused check dams and soil bunds to burst in the south and southeast. The good water reserves enhanced cropping in upstream areas of dams and on the lowlands. The Senegal River high-water flow has been above that of 1996 following the discharge of waters from Manantali dam which began on 27 August and lasted 45 days. Most regions received light rains in September. Rainfall in the first dekad of October was heavy but significantly lower than last year in Maghama, Timbedra, Kiffa and Ould Yeng�.
The locust situation remained calm. There were significant grasshopper attacks that required repeated resowing and even leading to the abandonment of fields in the Di�ri area. Aerial and ground treatment is under way to deal with the large number of grain-eating birds. A few isolated adult Desert Locusts were reported in the south during the summer and more recently in the north. The situation is under constant monitoring by field teams positioned throughout the country.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated in late October aggregate 1997/98 cereal output at 153 400 tons. This is 26 percent higher than in 1996/97, and 5 percent below the average of the last five years. Substantial increases are expected for lowland and irrigated crops in several areas. In contrast, production of rainfed crops, which have suffered the most from the uneven and irregular rainfall and grasshopper attack, will remain low again this year.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be tight for farmers affected by poor rainfed crop production, notably in the two Hodhs, Gorgol and Guidimaka. Following substantial imports, wheat and rice prices remain stable or have even decreased. By contrast, local coarse grain prices have increased, reflecting poor harvest prospects for rainfed crops.
The first significant rains of 1997 arrived in late April in the southwest and centre-south. The amount declined in the southwest during the first two dekads of May. Rainfall in June was low and sporadic, although localized downpours had been received. Heavier rainfall was recorded in early July over most of the country, particularly in the departments of Dosso and Maradi, in the southern part of Zinder department and in the districts of Bouza and Birni N�Konni (department of Tahoua). The rains in the second dekad of July became light but improved at the end of the month in the west and southwest. However, the amount of rainfall remained below average in the centre and east in August despite localized torrential rains in the northern strip.
Sowing began with the arrival of rains in April in the south of Dosso and Tahoua departments and in May in the departments of Maradi, Zinder and Tillab�ri. Millet and sorghum planting became widespread in June and July. Because of the uneven, irregular rainfall, sowing progressed along a south-north axis from April to July. Early sowing failed in parts of the departments of Tillab�ri (Ouallam), Dosso, Tahoua, Zinder and Diffa, requiring significant resowing. Lack of adequate rains in the first two dekads of August restricted crop growth in most departments. There are risks of localized water stress for the late crops, particularly in the departments of Tahoua and Maradi.
Heavy infestation of millet by grasshoppers and flower-eating insects, stem-borers and cereal leaf beetles has been reported. Sorghum and cowpea may be affected, but due to timely control measures damage to crops is not expected to be great. As of 24 October, some 293 000 hectares out of a reported infested area of some 800 000 hectares had been sprayed from the air.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated cereal production for 1997/98 at 2.25 million tons, marginally down from 1996 but 4 percent above the average for the past five years. Despite this average harvest, the food supply is anticipated to be tight in several deficit areas which gathered poor crops, some for the second or the third successive year. The most affected areas are, from west to east: Tera, Tillabery, Ouallam, Filingu�, Kollo, Tahoua, Bouza, Keita, Tanout, Myrriah, Gour�, Maina, Diffa and N�Guigmi. The government has estimated the cereal deficit at national level at 151 000 tons and has launched an appeal for international assistance to cover the needs of the affected populations in the vulnerable areas. It has requested especially that ongoing projects in affected areas organize in the coming weeks activities for off season production in order to prevent population movements. The national early warning system will organize a national workshop in early December to determine more precisely the affected areas and populations which will need to be monitored during the next year. In addition, the national security stock is almost exhausted. Its level is now at about 2 500 tons plus 1 500 tons in financial reserve. The marketing board, the Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger (OPVN), is planning to buy about 10 000 tons and 15 000 tons are expected to be received from a donor contributions for the reconstitution of the national security stock. Millet prices are relatively high, possibly due to strong demand for the OPVN or donors local purchases.
Apart from the continuing fertilizer shortage that has hampered crop production such as rice, growing conditions were favourable during the whole growing season and the output should be normal to above normal, excepted in the south-west, where some maize growing areas had very limited precipitation in July and the first half of August. The dry period, which usually occurs in July, lasted much longer than usual. In large areas, no rains occurred between mid July and late September, delaying the planting of the second season crops. Satellite imagery as of the end of October, shows about average vegetation in the south and above average in the north, and the overall crop prospects are good. In the south and the centre, the second maize crop is growing satisfactorily while irrigated rice is being harvested. African migratory locusts infestations are likely to develop in north-eastern Nigeria, from recently reported swarms in southern Chad, and could damage the millet and sorghum crops that are currently harvested.
Food supply is still constrained by high levels of post-harvest losses and high distribution costs. Shortages of fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides were reported during the whole growing season. As a result, many farmers have switched from rice and maize to millet, sorghum and groundnuts, which are less fertilizer dependent. A decrease in rice and maize production is expected for 1997, but might be compensated by a higher output of millet and sorghum depending on the development of the locust infestation. This is likely to have an impact in the neighbouring countries, notably Niger and Chad, which usually import coarse grains from Nigeria to cover their needs. It might also increase the need for rice imports. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 1 250 000 tons, including 900 000 tons of wheat and 250 000 tons of rice.
Following above-average early rains in May in the southeast and in June in the rest of the country, rains stopped during July except in the north west, where there was some precipitation in the last dekad. Regular rainfall resumed in mid-August, resulting in some improvement in the growing conditions in the northeast of the country. Rains in September and October were generally satisfactory and timely. However, cumulative rainfall was reported to be below average in most areas. The early heavy rains in May and June permitted earlier-than- usual land preparation and first sowing, particularly in the centre and south. Crop emergence was satisfactory but the long interruption in rainfall from early July to mid-August wiped out the first sowings in most of the centre and north. It was mostly in the northern lowlands and in the centre-north that some crops managed to survive and grow normally. While there is no major concern about sorghum which can reach maturity with little moisture, lack of rain in October in the north and centre-north will adversely affect millet yield. The state of the late-sown crops is particularly worrying in the regions of Saint-Louis, Louga and Thi�s, and to a lesser extent in the departments of Kaffrine (region of Kaolack) and Tambacounda (region of Tambacounda).
The water level of the Senegal River has been higher than last year but below that of 1995. Water was released from Manantali dam from 27 August for 45 days, but the time allowed for flooding the fields was sometimes insufficient to ensure the proper growth of flood recession crops in some trough areas of Matam and Podor.
As a result of the long dry spell, there were localized outbreaks of pests such as caterpillars and grasshoppers, which destroyed some crops, particularly in the region of Fatick. Out of a total 294 600 hectares infested by pests, mostly grasshoppers, treatment has been applied to 171 500 hectares. Close monitoring is necessary to spot the presence of solitary individuals and take control measures to prevent damage to late- sown crops.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in October estimated, on the basis of the national production survey, rainfed cereal production for 1997 at 774 000 tons. This is about 25 percent below average and 20 percent lower than 1996. An anticipated additional off-season output of 37 100 tons would bring total cereal production to 811 100 tons, 20 percent down from 1996 and 21 percent below average. Millet and maize are the most affected crops.
Following this below average crop, the overall food supply situation will be tight during 1997/98 marketing year. The most at-risk areas are located in the regions of Fatick (notably Tattaguine, Niakhar, Colobane Djilor, Fimela and Wadiour areas), Louga, Thi�s (Tivaouane, M�ouane, Niakh�ne and M�dina Dakhar), Tambacounda (Koumpentoum, Koutiaba, Fadayacounba and Missirah areas) and Saint Louis. In September, the government started food distributions in the drought affected areas. In the north, the impact of the poor harvest can be partly compensated by recession or irrigated crop production. External assistance is required for off-season production activities and the mobilization of cereals in surplus areas of the south and transfer to northern deficit areas. Currently, markets are generally well supplied. Prices of cereals have declined in August and September before the harvest, except for maize.
Following the political upheaval of 25 May 1997, the security situation remains fluid but some food aid deliveries are still underway. The overall food supply situation is improving as the main staple, rice, is currently being harvested. Rains have remained widespread during the growing season and the analysis of vegetation coverage (NDVI) using satellite imagery shows normal vegetation during this period. Due to good weather conditions and substantial agricultural input distribution by NGOs, food production is expected to be higher than last year's. Harvest of rainfed rice is well underway in the main growing areas, while swamp rice is growing satisfactorily. Cassava, sweet potatoes, bananas, groundnuts and vegetables have also been widely planted and are providing a substantial part of the food supply before the main rice harvest. The major constraints on agricultural activities are the poor or lack of infrastructure, insecurity, the small number of traders remaining in the country, and the embargo that will not allow any exports. As a result, the income generation capacity of households is extremely limited.
In the main towns, the food supply situation is tightening, following the embargo imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Although humanitarian supplies are to be exempt from the embargo, the poor and vulnerable are expected to be badly affected by the decrease of trading activities and high market prices for food. Prices of foodstuffs are very high in Freetown and the supply of food and water is deteriorating. Daily food consumption is estimated to have been reduced by about 20 percent from normal. An acute fuel shortage is also reported and severely affects all economic activities. Only a limited number of shops and markets have re-opened as many traders have left the country. Due to poor security conditions, very limited trade takes place between rural areas and Freetown. Nevertheless, significant quantities of rice had been imported into Sierra Leone before the embargo, but are sold at very high prices.
The number of displaced persons is currently estimated at around 100 000. Food aid has been distributed to 26 000 displaced people in Kenema, 15 000 in Makeni and 22 000 in the Bo area, from stocks that were in the country before the embargo but which are now exhausted. Humanitarian assistance is very limited due to poor security conditions. About 60 000 Sierra-Leonean refugees are also receiving food assistance in neighbouring Guinea.
The national cereal balance sheet constructed in early 1997 following an FAO/GIEWS Crop and Food Assessment Mission in December 1996 had indicated a cereal import requirement for 1997 of 260 000 tons. Commercial imports were estimated at 180 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 80 000 tons. It is estimated that from January to late August, about 120 000 tons of commercial imports had been received, and as of late September, reports from donors indicate that about 115 000 tons of food aid had been pledged for Sierra Leone. Thus, assuming that no additional commercial imports are possible up to the end of the year, only 230 000 tons will have been received by the end of 1997, leaving an uncovered gap of 30 000 tons. The revised balance sheet indicates that cereal consumption is likely to decrease from 114 kg/person/year to 101 kg/person/year. Sierra Leone�s cereal import requirement for 1998 is currently estimated at about 300 000 tons, virtually all of which would need to be provided as food aid if the embargo stops commercial imports,.
Rains were abundant from mid August to late October, and decreased in early November. As a result of good climatic conditions, cereal output in 1997 is expected to be above average. Some areas, notably in the centre, experienced dry periods in July and August and might have delayed the planting of second season crops. Millet and sorghum are being harvested in the north. Rice is being harvested and the second maize crop is growing satisfactorily in the south. Preliminary production estimates for 1997 point to about 755 000 tons of cereals, 1.2 million tons of roots and tubers, and 102 000 tons of pulses, an aggregate output well above average.
Markets are well supplied with foodstuffs. About 10 000 refugees from Ghana remain in the country.