FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook, February 1998 Page2

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook, February 1998

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98 forecast	Change 1997/98 over 1996/97
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . )					(.percentage )
Wheat	564	528	548	592	611	3.2
Coarse grains	809	892	810	917	908	-1.0
Rice, milled	355	362	371	382	383	0.4
(paddy)	(529)	(539)	(553)	(569)	(571)	0.3
All cereals (including milled rice)	1729	1782	1729	1890	1901	0.6
Developing countries	932	931	960	1022	1005	-1.7
Developed countries	797	851	769	868	897	3.3
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	95	92	93	93	93	-0.4
Coarse grains	85	89	93	87	89	1.8
Rice (milled)	17	21	19	18	20	9.4
All cereals	196	202	206	198	201	1.4
Developing countries	130	146	151	143	150	5.2
Developed countries	66	56	54	55	51	-8.3
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	13.0	9.4	7.7	4.9	5.0 4/	2.6
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	564	556	564	581	600	3.3
Coarse grains	840	881	859	895	906	1.2
Rice (milled)	359	367	372	380	385	1.1
All cereals	1763	1804	1796	1856	1891	1.9
Developing countries	1015	1051	1081	1114	1123	0.8
Developed countries	748	753	715	742	768	3.4
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . kg/year . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	170	170	170	172	173	0.7
Developed countries	131	129	130	130	131	0.5
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	147	117	104	112	125	11.6
Coarse grains	138	148	103	122	116	-4.9
Rice (milled)	62	55	54	56	54	-4.7
All cereals	347	319	261	290	295	1.5
Developing countries	172	160	156	165	150	-9.4
Developed countries	175	160	105	125	145	16.0
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . .. . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	19.3	17.8	14.0	15.4	15.7
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	250	289	336	352	316	-10.2
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	143	157	216	183	149 4/	-20.3 4/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	113	104	159	137	114 4/	-23.6 4/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	15.1	19.0	16.8	12.8	12.8 4/	1.8 4/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	349	340	358	349	350	0.3
Cereal production 1/	864	861	891	949	935	-1.5
Per caput production (kg.)	253	248	252	264	256	-3.0
Cereal imports 2/	62.9	72.7	77.8	64.2	69.3	8.1
of which: Food aid 3/	7.9	7.9	6.7	4.1	4.2	2.0
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	12.5	10.9	8.6	6.4	6.1

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995. 5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 6/ Average of quotations for July-December 1997. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.