Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Following favourable growing conditions, the 1997 cereal production is estimated at a well above average 915 000 tonnes, composed of 728 000 tonnes of maize, 158 000 tonnes of millet and sorghum, and 29 000 tonnes of rice. Aggregate root and tuber production is about 20 percent higher than last year at about 3.44 million tonnes, and pulse production is estimated at 100 000 tonnes, 35 percent above last year's level.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory following the harvest of the main crops. The Government is setting up a security stock of about 1 000 tonnes of maize and assisting the creation of on-farm stocks. Maize, yams, gari (processed yams) are sold to Niger and Nigeria. The cereal import requirement for 1998 (January/December) is estimated at 205 000 tonnes (including re-exports), mostly wheat and rice.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Higher than normal temperatures have been reported in early February. The government recently published the final 1997/98 cereal production figures. Aggregate cereal production is now estimated at about 2 million tonnes, which is about 19 percent down from 1996 and 18 percent below the five-year average. This is the lowest level since 1990. The list of deficit areas has also been revised.
Reflecting this below-average harvest, the overall food supply situation will be tight in the areas which gathered reduced crops. The Government has estimated the emergency food aid needs at 67 200 tonnes to cover consumption requirements of 800 000 people for seven months. It has launched an emergency programme, including off-season production, nutrition, cereal banks reconstitution projects, as well as emergency food assistance, in order to assist populations affected by poor harvests in 1997. The Government will provide 9 000 tonnes of cereals to cereal banks and support livestock activities in the affected areas. Tuareg refugees from Mali are also receiving food assistance.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A serious outbreak of African Swine Fever, a highly contagious viral disease of domestic pigs, has been reported in most rural areas. Despite two successive poor harvests, the overall food supply situation remains satisfactory as the country imports the bulk of its consumption requirement. However, affected rural populations, notably in the semi-arid or arid zones, may need assistance. For the 1997/98 marketing year, the cereal import requirement is estimated at 100 000 tonnes.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Harvesting of recession crops is underway. Recent surveys indicate that production is not going to be significantly reduced following African Migratory Locusts infestations which were reported in late 1997 in Chari and Baguirmi, the main recession crop producing zones. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October estimated total cereal production for 1997/98 at 993 300 tonnes which is 13 percent up from 1996 and 9 percent above the five-year average. Reflecting better prospects for recession crops than anticipated, this figure is likely to be revised slightly upwards.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be better in 1997/98 than in 1996/97. Markets are generally well supplied and millet prices have declined in the Sahelian zone, except in Kanem and parts of Batha prefectures where they increased slightly. They are generally lower than the previous year at the same period, thus improving terms of trade for pastoralists. Some population movements have been reported in north Kanem and in bordering areas of Batha, Gu�ra and Oudda�. The national security stock, whose recommended level is 22 000 tonnes, is exhausted. This may impede possible interventions in vulnerable areas. Donors are urged to assist with local purchases for the reconstitution of the national security stock.
Preliminary cereal production for 1997 is currently estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, which is about the same as last year's level. Upland rice, which accounts for the bulk of the country�s rice production has been affected by the dry period and output is expected to be below normal.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are adequately supplied. Organized repatriation is underway for the Liberian refugees and will be completed by the end of the year. About 210 000 Liberian refugees remain in the western departments. Their nutritional status is reported to be adequate. Food assistance is provided to 50 000 vulnerable people and to 30 000 children through school feeding. The cereal import requirement for 1998 (January/December) is estimated at 610 000 tonnes, mostly wheat and rice.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. The aggregate cereal output in 1997 is estimated at 84 750 tonnes, some 24 percent lower than last year and substantially below average. This is largely due to the sharp decline in the outputs of maize and upland rice as a result of a long dry spell in July/August.
Following this reduced harvest, the food supply situation will be tighter in 1998 than in 1997. The most affected areas are Badibou and Jokadou in the North Bank Division (NBD), Saloum in the northern part of Central River Division (CRD); Wulli and Sandou in the north of the Upper River Division (URD). However, good prospects for groundnut production are likely to ease the income situation of farmers in some areas.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Aggregate 1997 cereal production is estimated at 1.77 million tonnes, which is close to normal but 2.5 percent lower than last year. Nevertheless, millet and maize production in the extreme north has been substantially lower than usual and some assistance is required to provide seeds and food supplies in these affected areas. The net cereal deficit in the Upper East Region, which was the most affected, is estimated at 14 000 tonnes of millet and maize. The roots and tubers production was slightly higher than average, close to 13 million tonnes. As a result of low water reserves in the north, dry season gardening, a source of pulses and vegetables, may be affected. An FAO/WFP Mission is underway in this region to assess the needs.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory following the harvest of the main crops, although it could deteriorate in the coming months due to reduced output in the north. Some Togolese refugees still remain in Ghana after large repatriations in 1996. About 30 000 Liberian refugees are also receiving food assistance. The 1998 cereal import requirement is estimated at 410 000 tonnes, mostly wheat and rice.
Cereal production in 1997 is estimated at 840 000 tonnes, which is about average. Nevertheless, the high number of refugees in some of the main producing areas is causing substantial damages, including soil degradation and deforestation and may have limited production activities in these areas.
Latest estimates put the total number of Liberian and Sierra Leonean refugees in Guinea at 405 000, notably located in the border areas and in Conakry. Food assistance is provided to 60 000 Sierra Leonean and 60 000 Liberian refugees amongst the most vulnerable. About 45 000 children also receive food assistance through school feeding. Organized repatriation is underway for the Liberian refugees and will be completed by the end of the year. The presence of refugees is increasing the demand for food items which results in rapid depletion of stocks available and price increases. The cereal import requirement for 1998 is estimated at 400 000 tonnes.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated 1997 aggregate cereal output at 186 600 tonnes, which is 29 percent higher than 1996 level and above the average for the last five years.
Following this good harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are generally well supplied and prices remain mostly stable. Following entrance of Guinea-Bissau into the UMOA (Union Mon�taire Ouest Africaine) and the Franc zone, food prices have increased somewhat, notably for rice. Cereal imports during the 1997/98 marketing year are estimated at 76 000 tonnes
Following good climatic conditions, adequate security and agricultural inputs distribution, the preliminary estimate for cereal production is about 168 000 tonnes, which is 75 percent higher than previous year's level and about 60 percent of the pre-war level. Cassava production is about 280 000 tonnes, which is also substantially higher than the previous year�s level.
Following the stable security situation throughout the country humanitarian aid can be delivered in most areas and an improvement of the nutritional status of the population is reported. Food supply on the urban market is stable although most of the available food is coming from humanitarian assistance. Prices remain high on the urban markets and most people have turned to cassava as a substitute for rice. Nevertheless, all infrastructures have been destroyed by the war and are hampering the marketing of food commodities. A UN Consolidated Appeal has been issued, including agricultural rehabilitation programmes. Liberia remains heavily dependent on food aid, especially for the counties with a high number of returnees. In December, the number of refugees and displaced persons was estimated to be about 700 000, most of which are receiving food assistance. New Sierra Leonean refugees are arriving as a result of fighting and insecurity in Sierra Leone. The Government has recently appealed for international assistance for more than 100 000 refugees. The stable security situation is allowing the return of Liberian refugees from neighbouring countries. Organized repatriation is underway for about 480 000 Liberian refugees in neighbouring countries and should be completed by the end of 1998, while it is estimated that 120 000 refugees have returned spontaneously. The cereal import requirement for 1998 (January/December), is currently estimated at 210 000 tonnes, of which 110 000 tonnes is food aid.
Seasonably hot and dry conditions prevail. Higher than normal temperatures have been reported in early February in southern Mali. Harvesting of recession crops is underway and prospects are favourable. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated aggregate cereal production for 1997/98 at 2.4 million tonnes which is 7 percent higher than 1996 and above the five-year average. Rice production reached a new record level of 663 000 tonnes. Low numbers of Desert Locusts may be present in a few of the major wadis in the Adrar des Iforas and Tilemsi Valley and breed if rainfall occurs.
Following this good harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and cereal prices decreased since August/September, reaching levels generally much lower than those of 1996 at the same period. However, the national early warning system (SAP) classified the arrondissement of Aourou in Kayes region an several arrondissements in the north and west of Tombouctou region as at risk of food supply difficulties following poor harvests due to unfavourable growing conditions or pest attacks. Several other arrondissements may also face economic difficulties. The SAP recommended the development of activities generating income for the populations and constitution of local security stocks, notably through cereal banks. It estimated at 2 500 tonnes of cereals the possible emergency needs for the affected populations in Tombouctou area and at 205 tonnes in Kayes region. The national security stock is at 29 500 tonnes of millet or sorghum, which is higher than last year and will facilitate interventions during next marketing year, if needed. Stocks are available in the most at-risk areas, notably in Tombouctou and Gao regions. Food assistance is given to the Tuaregs who have returned from neighbouring countries. In contrast, refugees from Niger are reported in the north-east. Exportable surpluses are available for triangular transactions with neighbouring countries affected by deficits, notably northern and central Senegal, Mauritania and some areas of Niger or Burkina Faso.
Particularly warm weather is reported in the south. Harvesting of recession and off-season crops is starting. Their production is expected to compensate for the very poor rainfed crop gathered in late 1997, following dry conditions during the growing season. A revision of production estimates prepared by the FAO/CILSS Assessment Mission in late October 1997 will be undertaken shortly by national statistical services in order to take into account production of recession and off-season crops. Pasture conditions are favourable. During December, solitary Desert Locusts were present at a few places in Atar and Zouerate areas.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be tight for farmers affected by poor rainfed crop production, notably in Gorgol and Guidimaka. Poor rainfed production in Senegal will also limit possible imports in the Senegal river area. Following substantial recent commercial imports, wheat and rice prices remain mostly stable. Local coarse grain prices also remain stable or have decreased slightly following harvesting of rainfed crops, but they remain at high levels.
Seasonably hot and dry conditions prevail. Higher than normal temperatures have been reported in early February. Harvesting of recession crops is underway. Aggregate cereal production in 1997/98 is estimated at 2.25 million tonnes, marginally down from 1996 but 4 percent above the average for the past five years. Late reports stated that small scale Desert Locust breeding, which commenced in September, continued in late 1997 in parts of the Tamesna. Groups of adults as well as solitarious and hoppers were present between Agadez and Arlit. Similar infestations were also reported at several places to the north-west of Arlit. Low numbers of solitarious adults will persist in a few places of Tamesna.
Despite this average harvest, the food supply is anticipated to be tight in several deficit areas which gathered poor crops, some for the second or third successive year. Cereal prices are particularly high, notably in Tillabery, Agadez, Tahoua and Diffa departments. The National Early Warnign System (SAP) estimated that most affected areas are the arrondissements of Diffa, Abalack, Agadez, Ouallam, Tchitabaradebm Arlit, Bilma, Ma�n� Soroa, N�Guigmi and Tchirozerine, the first five being particularly at risk. The Government has launched an appeal for international assistance to cover the needs of the affected populations in the vulnerable areas. It has requested especially that ongoing projects in affected areas organize activities in the coming weeks for off-season production in order to prevent population movements. However, higher than normal migrations of families or men in search of work are reported from the north of Tillabery department.
Following the government appeal, several donors have offered assistance for off-season gardening projects or pledged food aid contributions.
Shortages of fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides were reported during the whole growing season. Nevertheless, following favourable growing conditions, global cereal production for 1997 is estimated at 22.2 million tonnes, which is 2.5 percent higher than last year. Production of roots and tubers is estimated at 58 million tonnes, which is slightly above average. Cash crops production is reported to have decreased, notably cocoa and rubber, as a result of agricultural policies in favour of food crops.
Food supply is still constrained by high levels of postharvest losses and high distribution costs but is satisfactory following the marketing of the main crops. The cereal import requirement for 1998 is estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, including 1 million tonnes of wheat and 200 000 tonnes of rice.
Seasonably hot and dry conditions prevail. Higher than normal temperatures have been reported in early February. Harvesting of recession crops is underway and prospects are more favourable than the previous year. Due to a long dry spell in July/August, the 1997 aggregate rainfed cereal production is estimated at 774 000 tonnes, which is about 20 percent below the previous year�s level and below average. Production of off-season and recession crops, which is forecast to be around 40 000 tonnes, is additional to this amount.
Following the reduced cereal harvest in 1997, the overall food supply situation is going to be tight during the 1997/98 marketing year. In urban areas, food supply is adequate despite a price rise for imported rice in early January 1998. In rural areas, prices of rice remain generally stable but those of coarse grains are increasing in the areas which gathered a poor rainfed crop in 1997, notably in the north and the centre-north. The areas most at risk are located in the centre and the north, in the regions of Diambel, Fatick, Louga, Thi�s and Saint Louis. In September, the Government started food distributions in the affected areas and requested assistance for off-season production activities and the mobilization of cereals from surplus areas of the south. In mid-January, the Government launched an appeal for food assistance amounting to 82 600 tonnes of cereals to cover the needs of about 2.5 million persons.
While the food supply situation in Freetown might improve following the recent events in Sierra Leone, it is likely to worsen in rural areas. As the Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS) military forces now control Freetown, the economic embargo in force since August 1997 might be lifted soon, allowing some improvement in the functioning of food markets as well as the flow of relief food supplies to the capital. In contrast, the resurgence of insecurity in rural areas could hamper preparations for the next rice crop in the coming months as well as agricultural rehabilitation activities, thus aggravating the already precarious food supply situation.
Since the implementation of the economic embargo in August 1997, very little humanitarian assistance has been provided to the country, despite UN-ECOWAS agreement on sanctions exemption mechanisms for such assistance. Also, due to restricted internal commercial activity and poor infrastructure, movement of available food supplies has been severely hampered with food prices rising to levels beyond the reach of large part of the population.
If fighting spreads into the rural areas, which remained relatively calm during 1997, this will hamper performance of vital agricultural activities such as land preparation and planting of the rice crop, which normally starts in April. Heightened insecurity will also impede the distribution of inputs to farmers and possibly also lead to looting of cassava fields and rice or stocks on farms by the fighters. As a result, area planted and crop production may fall in 1998 if peace is not fully restored throughout the country.
FAO estimates Sierra Leone�s cereal import requirement for 1998 at about 260 000 tonnes. If peace is re-established and the embargo lifted soon, it is estimated that about 180 000 tonnes of cereals would be imported by local traders up to the end of 1998, leaving a food aid requirement of 80 000 tonnes. If these conditions cannot be rapidly implemented and humanitarian assistance remains restricted, the country could face a large scale food crisis.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. As a result of generally good climatic conditions, aggregate cereal production for 1997 is estimated at 770 000 tonnes, which is about 18 percent above the previous year. Roots and tubers production is estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, which is above average, while pulse production reaches 102 000 tonnes, about 13 percent below last year level.
Markets are well supplied with foodstuffs following the marketing of the main crops. The cereal import requirement for 1998 (January/December), is estimated at 90 000 tonnes of wheat and rice.