FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - March 1998:

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SENEGAL


Area: 192 000 sq.km
Climate: Semi-arid in north, tropical wet-dry in south, with rains in June-October
Population: 9.0 million (1998 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 600 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; coastal sahelian country
Logistics: Port capacity adequate; gateway to Mali.
Major foodcrops: Millet and sorghum, rice, maize, wheat
Marketing year: November/October; Lean season: August-September
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 61 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Seasonably hot and dry conditions prevail. Higher than normal temperatures have been reported in February. Harvesting of recession crops is underway and prospects are more favourable than the previous year. By contrast, due to a long dry spell in July/August, the 1997 aggregate rainfed cereal production is estimated at 774 000 tonnes, which is about 20 percent below the previous year’s level and below average. Production of off-season and recession crops, which is forecast to be around 40 000 tonnes, is additional to this amount.

Following the reduced cereal harvest in 1997, the overall food supply situation is going to be tight during the 1997/98 marketing year. In urban areas, food supply is adequate despite a price rise for imported rice in January 1998. In rural areas, prices of rice remain generally stable but those of coarse grains are increasing in the areas which gathered a poor rainfed crop in 1997, notably in the north and the centre-north where they are particularly high. The areas most at risk are located in the centre and the north, in the regions of Diourbel, Fatick, Louga, Thiès and Saint Louis. In September, the Government started food distributions in the affected areas and requested assistance for off-season production activities and the mobilization of cereals from surplus areas of the south. In mid-January, the Government launched an appeal for food assistance amounting to 82 600 tonnes of cereals to cover the needs of about 2.5 million persons.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1997/98 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production

-

176

828

1 004

Normal Imports

175

380

60

615

of which: Structural food aid

5

4

5

14

1997/98 Domestic Availability

6

174

692

872

1997 Production (rice in paddy terms)

-

177

634

811

1997 Production (rice in milled terms)

-

124

634

758

Possible stock drawdown

6

50

58

114

1997/98 Utilization

206

584

862

1 652

Food Use

203

563

736

1 501

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

20

20

Non-food use

3

21

127

151

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1997/98 Import Requirement

200

410

170

780

Anticipated commercial imports

195

400

100

695

Food aid needs

5

10

70

85

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

1

-

-

1

of which: Delivered

1

-

-

1

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

-

-

of which: for local use

-

-

-

-

for export

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/year)

23

63

82

167

Indexes





1997 production as % of normal:




81

1997/98 import requirement as % of normal:




127

1997/98 food aid requirement as % of normal:




607


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