FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook, April 1998 Page2

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook, April 1998

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98 forecast	Change 1997/98 over 1996/97
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . )					(.percentage )
Wheat	564	528	548	590	613	3.8
Coarse grains	809	892	810	919	911	-0.9
Rice, milled	355	362	372	382	384	0.3
(paddy)	(529)	(539)	(554)	(570)	(572)	0.3
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 729	1 782	1 730	1 892	1 908	0.8
Developing countries	932	931	960	1 022	1 005	-1.7
Developed countries	797	851	770	870	903	3.8
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	95	93	93	94	92	-1.2
Coarse grains	85	88	94	88	88	-0.8
Rice (milled)	16	21	20	18	22	17.7
All cereals	196	202	206	200	202	0.7
Developing countries	130	146	151	145	151	4.4
Developed countries	66	56	55	55	51	-8.9
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	13.0	9.4	7.7	4.9	5.5	12.9
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	564	556	563	578	599	3.6
Coarse grains	840	880	859	898	906	1.0
Rice (milled)	359	368	373	381	384	0.8
All cereals	1 763	1 804	1 795	1 857	1 889	1.7
Developing countries	1 015	1 052	1 081	1 113	1 122	0.7
Developed countries	748	752	714	743	768	3.3
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	170	170	171	172	172	-0.1
Developed countries	131	129	130	130	131	0.6
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . .. . . . million tons . . . . . . . )
Wheat	147	118	104	113	126	11.7
Coarse grains	138	148	103	123	122	-0.4
Rice (milled)	62	54	54	56	54	-5.1
All cereals	347	320	261	292	302	3.4
Developing countries	172	160	156	167	152	-9.5
Developed countries	175	159	105	124	150	20.6
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	19.2	17.8	14.1	15.4	15.9
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	250	289	336	352	316	-10.2
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	143	157	216	183	147 6/	-20.1 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	113	104	159	137	114 6/	-18.6 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	15.1	19.0	16.8	12.8	12.7 6/	-4.5 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	349	340	358	349	350	0.3
Cereal production 1/	863	861	891	951	932	-2.0
Per caput production (kg.)	253	248	252	265	255	-3.5
Cereal imports 2/	62.8	73.0	78.2	64.4	70.5	9.5
of which: Food aid 3/	7.9	7.9	6.7	4.1	4.6	11.7
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	12.5	10.9	8.6	6.4	6.5

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Average of quotations for July 1997-March 1998.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.