Prospects for the 1998 harvest in May/June remain uncertain, due mainly to ongoing fighting in the northern provinces. An FAO/WFP Mission will visit the country in early May to assess the crop and food supply situation. Total cereal production in 1997 is estimated at 3.66 million tonnes, 18 percent higher than the previous year. Following the earthquake which hit the Northern part of the country, the food situation still remains tight in the affected areas, despite efforts by humanitarian agencies to provide relief assistance.
Imports of cereals in 1997/98 are forecast at 710 000 tonnes, similar to last year, including an emergency food aid requirement of 170 000 tonnes.
The outlook for the wheat crop is favourable and an output matching last year's record of about 1.45 million tonnes is expected. The prospects for the boro rice crop, to be harvested from April, has improved with occasional showers and prolonged cool weather helping to conserve soil moisture.
As of end-February 1998, the government-held cereal stocks were estimated at 499 000 tonnes compared to 833 000 tonnes in the previous year. Current projections indicate that the country will import some 926 000 tonnes of wheat and 500 000 tonnes of rice.
Harvesting of secondary rice crop has started under favourable conditions. The aggregate output of paddy in 1997/98 is estimated at 3.44 million tonnes, slightly higher than 1996/97 and some 24 percent above average. The increase in production is attributed to favourable weather and an increase in secondary season rice area.
For secondary crops, maize, cassava, sweet potatoes and vegetables, planted area has increased but heavy floods have severely damaged maize production. Food supply difficulties are also reported in some districts which have been affected by flood and drought.
Output of the 1998 winter wheat crop, to be harvested from April, is anticipated to decline due to reduced area under the crop as a result of drought conditions in some major wheat producing provinces. Sowing of the 1998 paddy crop has started. Overall, the food supply situation is favourable with satisfactory stock levels, following the previous year�s bumper harvest.
Prospects for the 1998 wheat and barley crops, due for harvest from June appear to be favourable. Production of cereals in 1997, mainly barley is estimated at 40 000 tonnes.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (May/April) are forecast at 95 000 tonnes. Aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes.
Prospects for the rabi grain production (mainly wheat), to be harvested from April 1998, remain favourable. Wheat production in 1997 is officially estimated at a record 68.7 million tonnes against the previous year's 62.6 million tonnes and about 14 percent higher than the average of the preceding five years. In 1998 wheat production is expected to decline slightly to 67 million tonnes, due to the heavy rains during the optimal planting period of November through midDecember.
The estimate of aggregate paddy output for 1997/98, including Kharif and Rabi, has been raised by 1.2 million tonnes, from the previous forecast to about 123 million tonnes. Most parts of the country received timely and adequate monsoon rains for the tenth consecutive year.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in March found that one of the severest droughts in this century associated with the El Ni�o phenomenon combined with the unprecedented financial crisis have reduced food production in Indonesia, adversely affecting Indonesia�s food security.
The Mission forecasts the 1998 paddy harvest at 47.5 million tonnes, 3.6 percent below last year�s already reduced production and 11 percent below the official target. Over 90 percent of the decrease in paddy production is due to the reduction in planted area as a result of the delayed onset of rains. As farmers shifted planting from paddy to secondary (palawija) crops such as maize, soybeans, roots and tubers and groundnuts, production of these is forecast to increase, providing some food security cushion. All production estimates critically hinge on El Ni�o related developments during the remainder of 1998.
Based on the current production forecast and the utilization needs, the Mission estimates a record rice import requirement of 3.5 million tonnes in the 1998/99 marketing year (April/March). The Indonesian Government plans to import some 1.5 million tonnes between April and September 1998 leaving an uncovered deficit of 2 million tonnes, for which international assistance will be required in the form of rice loans, grants, concessionary imports and targeted food aid. It should be noted that the country will also need to import some 4 million tonnes of wheat during 1998/99, which will impose a further strain on its already overstretched import capacity.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (2 April)
Estimated production of wheat in 1997/98 was 10 million tonnes, slightly lower than the previous year and about 5 percent below the average for the previous five years. Reported rains and floods in January, which washed away farmland under wheat and barley in south-western Iran may adversely affect output.
Prospects for the 1998 cereal harvest in May/June remain uncertain. The rainfall has been below average and unevenly distributed, and has substantially affected sowing operations. Production is likely to be constrained again this season by serious shortages of quality seeds, fertilizer, spare parts for agricultural machinery, agro-chemicals, vaccines and the widespread incidence of pests, weeds and animal diseases.
Despite some improvement in the overall food supply situation following the implementation of Security Council Resolution 986, malnutrition still remains a serious problem throughout Iraq. Although food rations under SCR 986 provides a significant proportion of overall energy and protein needs, the provisions are low or deficient in a number of other nutrients, particularly Vitamins. In view of these shortfalls in the food rations under SCR 986, the U.N. Security Council has approved a proposal to increase by US$ 3.26 billion to US$ 5.26 billion, from its current level of US$ 2 billion, the amount of oil Iraq is allowed to sell over a period of six months, to buy food, medicine and health supplies, and emergency infrastructure repairs.
The prospects for the 1998 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested in April/May, are favourable, reflecting normal weather conditions. Production of wheat in 1997 is estimated at 140 000 tonnes.
Imports of cereals in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.7 million tonnes, 6 percent lower than in previous year.
Sowing of the 1998 rice crop has started. To cut production and reduce large stocks in the country, the diversion programme, which has already set aside about 30 percent of rice farmland, is set at 963 000 hectares, an increase of 176 000 hectares from the previous year.
The 1997 cereal harvest, estimated at 13.3 million tonnes, was slightly lower than in 1996. Cereal imports in 1997/98 are forecast at 26.8 million tonnes (including 20.1 million tonnes of coarse grains, 6.1 million tonnes of wheat and 0.6 million tonnes of rice), about the same level of last year.
The prospects for the 1998 wheat and barley crops appear favourable. Aggregate output of wheat and barley declined by 18 percent in 1997 to 55 000 tonnes, due to unfavourable weather conditions. Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 800 000 tonnes and that of rice at 90 000 tonnes. Coarse grains imports in 1997/98 are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (20 April)
The effects of three consecutive years of natural calamities, which compounded the severe structural problems in the economy and farming sector, have led to a grave food supply situation in the country. The substantial decrease in food production and supply have resulted in severe hardship and rapidly declining nutritional standards of the population. In spite of considerable anecdotal evidence of nutritional deficiencies in the country, no reliable estimates of the extent of the problem exist. There is an urgent need to undertake a random, representative assessment of the nutritional situation in the country.
Early prospects for the next crop season due to begin in May depend considerably on the availability of irrigation water on which key farming operations depend. Water levels in a large number of irrigation reservoirs, however, remain inadequate as a result of last year�s drought and the reduced snowfall this year. Much will depend on rainfall from June to September during which period the country receives most of its annual precipitation. In addition, as productivity and output in agriculture continue to be seriously compromised by deep-seated economic difficulties, prospects for a significant recovery in food production in 1998 do not appear promising. An FAO/WFP Mission is scheduled to visit the country in early June to assess early crop prospects for 1998 and review the food situation.
In the short term there is a continued need for food aid to vulnerable groups. At the same time there is a pressing need for international assistance in the country to help stabilize its food and agriculture situation. In this regard, assistance for agricultural rehabilitation and the provision of essential imports such as seeds, fertilizers and appropriate farm technology is a major necessity. In response to the UN Inter-Agency Consolidated Appeal, which earmarks US$23 million (out of a total of US$415.6 million) for agriculture and food security, less than 10 percent has been pledged by donors so far.
The prospects for the barley crop, about to be harvested, are favourable. Paddy output in 1997 is estimated at 7.5 million tonnes which is slightly higher than the previous year but about 8 percent above average.
Wheat imports in 1997/98 are estimated at 3.5 million tonnes compared to 3.9 million tonnes in 1996/97.
The aggregate output of paddy in 1997 is currently estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, 18 percent higher than in 1996 and 12 percent above the average of the preceding five years. But localized shortages are reported in some provinces due to adverse weather.
The prospects for the 1998 winter harvest in June/July remain favourable. Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 1997 is estimated at 63 000 tonnes.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.5 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the main 1998 paddy crop is underway. Output is anticipated to be slightly lower than the 1997 estimate of 2.1 million tonnes due to reduced plantings.
Preparations for wheat planting, which starts in May, are underway. Shortages of seeds are reported for the upcoming sowing campaign. Aggregate output of cereals in 1997, estimated at 240 000 tonnes, was about 33 percent below the average of the previous five years. As a result, the tight cereal supply situation is expected to deteriorate until the next harvest in September.
The economy is heavily dependent on the livestock sector, which contributes 88 percent to gross agricultural production. However, due to the transition to market oriented economy the sector has been subject to radical reforms in the form of the break-up of large state enterprises into smaller units and a sharp decline in budgetary and service support. As a result, the sector continues to be hampered by serious shortages of infrastructure such as wells, veterinary services, marketing systems and other inputs.
Harvesting of secondary paddy crop is underway. The target for the 1997/98 paddy production is set at 20 million tonnes. The output of paddy in 1997 is officially estimated at 17 million tonnes, similar to the previous year and around average.
The aggregate cereal output in 1997 is estimated at 6.3 million tonnes, some 600 000 tonnes below the previous year�s harvest but about 9 percent above the average. Paddy production in 1997, estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, is about 13 percent below the previous year's harvest despite an increase in area planted to paddy by about 4 percent. However, at this level production is still about 12 percent higher than the average of the previous five years.
The outlook for the wheat crop, the harvesting of which is underway, is favourable, reflecting increased plantings and adequate fertilizer supplies. The Government provided an additional incentive to farmers by increasing the support price by over 30 percent. As a result, the production of wheat in 1997/98 is officially forecast at a record of about 18 million tonnes, some 9 percent higher than the previous year�s harvest.
Paddy output in 1997 is currently estimated at 6.5 million tonnes, compared with the previous year's record of 6.4 million tonnes. Coarse grain output is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, some 3 percent above last year's level.
Prospects for the secondary paddy and maize crops for harvest in May-June are unfavourable. Preliminary indications suggest a 13 percent decline in this year's secondary paddy output to about 4.2 million tonnes, and a 9 percent decline in dry season maize output to 1.7 million tonnes reflecting reduced plantings due to drier weather conditions related to the El Ni�o weather anomalies. Provinces particularly affected include South Cotabato, Miasmic Oriental and parts of Zamboanga del Sur in Mindanao.
Imports of rice and maize in 1998 are likely to increase due to expected weather-related declines in production and growth in population and consumption. The NFA has placed orders for 650 000 tonnes of rice for delivery in the first half of 1998.
Prospects for the 1998 crop to be harvested in April/May are favourable given that no serious outbreaks of pests and disease occur in the coming months. If no further rains occur and as temperatures increase in the interior, adults desert locusts are likely to move east across the mountains towards Hail, Wadis Najran and Dawasir, and Oman. If rains fall in the interior, laying could occur.
Imports of barley in 1997/98 (July/June) are currently forecast at 5 million tonnes. Due to the application of the government subsidy policies, the country has reached the stage of self-sufficiency in many crops and livestock commodities, including wheat, dates and fresh milk. To protect theses achievements, the government has imposed a 100 percent customs duties on similar types of imported commodities so that local products can compete with similar imported products.
Harvesting of the main (maha) paddy crop is underway and a sharp increase in output is expected due to the favourable growing conditions. Planting of the secondary (Yala) paddy crop is expected to start early since water reservoirs are full.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Following the good harvest in 1997 adequate rice stocks are held by the Government and private traders.
Prospects for the winter grains crops to be harvested from mid-May are favourable reflecting normal weather conditions during the growing season. Cereals production in 1997 is estimated at 5.1 million tonnes, about 15 percent lower than last year. Wheat output dropped to 3.5 million tonnes in 1997 as a result of unfavourable weather, especially winter frost, while maize output, estimated at 300 000 tonnes, is 45 percent higher than in the previous year.
Imports of wheat flour in 1997/98 are forecast at some 400 000 tonnes, whilst maize imports are forecast at 340 000 tonnes.
Rice output from the second paddy crop this year is anticipated to increase as high prices encouraged farmers to cultivate more land for rice despite warnings of low levels of water supply.
The aggregate paddy output in 1997 is estimated at 21.3 million tonnes (above average) which is likely to generate larger exportable surpluses. Rice exports in 1998 are projected at 5.6 million tonnes against 5.3 million tonnes in 1997.
Prospects of the 1998 winter crop are favourable so far reflecting normal weather conditions. The 1997 wheat production is estimated at 18.7 million tonnes compared to 18.5 million tonnes in 1996.
Wheat imports in 1997/98 are forecast at some 1.5 million tonnes and maize imports are forecast at 600 000 tonnes.
Recent reports indicate that drought conditions, attributed to El Nino weather anomalies, may have adversely affected the harvest of the current spring-summer rice crops. Transplantation of the summer-autumn crop is also reported to be facing serious shortages of water. The government has placed a temporary halt on fresh rice exports to guarantee food security.
The aggregate output of paddy in 1997 is estimated at 27.5 million tonnes slightly higher than the previous year and about 9 percent higher than the average of the preceding five years. Rice export, which is one of the country�s main export earners, reached 3.6 million tonnes in 1997 making Vietnam the world�s second largest rice exporter. The export target for 1998 is 4.0 million tonnes.
Land preparation for the sowing of the main sorghum crop is underway. The output of 1997 sorghum crop is estimated some 473 000 tonnes, some 29 percent higher than the previous year.
Locusts numbers are expected to increase along the Red Sea coastal plains as result of continuing breeding. Small scale breeding will occur in a few places along the coastal plains of Aden and to a lesser extent east of Aden. This may be supplemented by a few adult groups or small swarms coming from northern Somalia. Imports of cereals in 1997 - mainly wheat - are estimated at some 2.6 million tonnes.