Planting of the 1998 second season food crops is completed. Despite favourable weather conditions so far, early prospects are uncertain. An estimated increase in the area planted from 1997, as a result of the return home of part of the previously regrouped and displaced population, could be offset by lower yields due to shortages of fertilizers and quality seeds.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country in February 1998 estimated the total food production of the 1998 first season at 1 142 000 tonnes, 2 percent down on the level of 1997 first season, which was itself below average. The greatest falls were in pulses and cereals (16 and 13 percent, respectively). In comparison with the average of the first season production between 1988 and 1993, the 1998 first season production is 20 percent lower. Following an improvement in security conditions, large numbers of people returned to their homes during the second half of 1997. This led to an increase in planted areas. However, the rains arrived a month late in most areas and were so heavy that they caused floods and heavy pest infestations in some crops.

After projecting the 1998 food production of the second and third seasons, the Mission estimated an import requirement in 1998 of 139 000 tonnes of cereal equivalent. Commercial imports are expected to be 54 000 tonnes, leaving a deficit of 85 000 tonnes of cereals and pulses. Emergency food aid requirements are estimated at 60 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 25 000 tonnes.

Access to food is curtailed by soaring food prices. Low imports because of the economic embargo by neighbouring countries, poor harvests and significant food outflows, especially to Rwanda, have pushed prices up. Access to an adequate amount of foodstuffs is now beyond the reach of the majority of the population, while distribution of emergency food aid to the affected population is hampered by poor road and rail conditions in the region. Airlift distributions are currently being undertaken.