The bulk of the wheat and coarse grains crop for the 1998 harvest is due to be sown from May to June. Early indications point to a decrease in the area sown for the second successive year, by 4 percent, to about 11 million hectares. Relatively poor returns expected for wheat are likely to encourage farmers to switch to other crops such as oilseeds. In addition, farmers may be forced to leave more land fallow as below-normal precipitation this winter is expected to result in unfavourable planting conditions in parts. However, if weather conditions throughout the growing season are normal, yields could recover somewhat from last year's below average levels. Thus, despite the smaller plantings anticipated, aggregate wheat output is tentatively forecast to increase by about 5 percent to 25.5 million tonnes, and output of barley (the major coarse grain) is also forecast to rise somewhat.