Planting of the 1998 second season food crops is completed. Despite favourable weather conditions so far, early prospects are uncertain. An estimated increase in the area planted from 1997, as a result of the return home of part of the previously regrouped and displaced population, could be offset by lower yields due to shortages of fertilizers and quality seeds.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country in February 1998 estimated the total food production of the 1998 first season at 1 142 000 tonnes, 2 percent down on the level of 1997 first season, which was itself below average. The greatest falls were in pulses and cereals (16 and 13 percent, respectively). In comparison with the average of the first season production between 1988 and 1993, the 1998 first season production is 20 percent lower. Following an improvement in security conditions, large numbers of people returned to their homes during the second half of 1997. This led to an increase in planted areas. However, the rains arrived a month late in most areas and were so heavy that they caused floods and heavy pest infestations in some crops.
After projecting the 1998 food production of the second and third seasons, the Mission estimated an import requirement in 1998 of 139 000 tonnes of cereal equivalent. Commercial imports are expected to be 54 000 tonnes, leaving a deficit of 85 000 tonnes of cereals and pulses. Emergency food aid requirements are estimated at 60 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 25 000 tonnes.
Access to food is curtailed by soaring food prices. Low imports because of the economic embargo by neighbouring countries, poor harvests and significant food outflows, especially to Rwanda, have pushed prices up. Access to an adequate amount of foodstuffs is now beyond the reach of the majority of the population, while distribution of emergency food aid to the affected population is hampered by poor road and rail conditions in the region. Airlift distributions are currently being undertaken.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Planting of the 1998 crops is not scheduled until late May/June. Following an outbreak of the desert locust in late 1997, control operations are being undertaken by the Government in preparation for the new cropping season.
The 1997 main season grain crops were reduced by a dry spell in September, when the crops were at the critical maturing stage, and unexpected heavy rains at harvest. The output is estimated at the same reduced level of the previous year.
With the third consecutive below-average harvest and a sharp reduction in grain import availability from neighbouring Ethiopia, the food situation is tight. Cereal prices, which had increased at harvest time in November, have risen sharply in the past months.
Prospects for the 1998 secondary �Belg� crops to be harvested from June are generally favourable reflecting good rains in the main production areas since January. Rains in the second dekad of April, following a dry spell from the second half of March, improved soil moisture in most areas except in northeastern parts where more precipitation is needed. Providing weather conditions are favourable for the remainder of the growing season, output is forecast to recover from the poor level of last year.
The 1997 �Meher� harvest was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 8 786 000 tonnes of cereals and pulses, which is one-quarter below the previous year�s estimates. The reduction in production was primarily a result of poor Belg rains followed by late, low and erratic rainfall during the Meher season, exacerbated by unusually heavy rains at harvest time and 20 percent reduction in fertilizer use.
The Mission estimated a total grain import requirement of 530 000 tonnes in 1998. This includes 110 000 tonnes expected to be covered by commercial imports, and 420 000 tonnes of food aid required for 5.3 million rural people affected by a poor harvest and chronic poverty. However, food aid requirements are fully covered by pledges.
The food supply situation is tight for the affected population, particularly in the zones of southern Tigray, south Wollo and north Shoa. In the southern pastoral areas, despite adequate rains and good pastures conditions, food security is being adversely affected by the ban on imports of livestock and meat by the Gulf countries where most of the region�s exports go.
Dry weather during the second half of February and March, which followed heavy precipitation and floods, was beneficial for harvesting of the 1997/98 secondary �short rains� crops and improved soil conditions for planting of the 1998 �long rains� crops. Abundant rains in the second dekad of April benefited early planted crops.
Preliminary official estimates of the 1997/98 �short rains� maize indicate an output of 387 000 tonnes. Serious crop damage due to floods during the season was offset by a significant increase in the area planted. The 1997 �long rains� maize crop was also affected by dry spells during the growing season and heavy rains at harvest. In aggregate, the 1997/98 maize production is estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, which is above last year�s reduced harvest but below average. At this level of production, import requirements in marketing year 1997/98 (October/September) are estimated at 750 000 tonnes, most of which are expected to be covered commercially. Supplies of wheat and beans are also anticipated to be tight as a result of reduced harvests.
In the pastoral areas, the food situation gives cause for concern following losses of livestock due to an outbreak of animal diseases associated with the heavy rains from October to January. Food assistance continues to be distributed to this population, as well as to those affected by severe floods in eastern and north-eastern agricultural areas. Despite an improvement in access following drier weather, roads remain in poor condition, hampering distribution operations.
Planting of the 1998 B season is completed. Growing conditions are favourable following abundant rains in the past months. However, widespread shortage of agricultural inputs, mainly seeds, together with insecurity in the western prefectures, have limited expansion in the area planted.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in January found that despite an increase of 14 percent in the 1998 A season food crop production over last year�s A season, the output in per caput terms reached only some 88 percent of precrisis levels. A one month delay in the onset of rains limited an otherwise significant expansion of cultivated area, while the ensuing excessive precipitation resulted in flooding in the valley marshlands and reduced yields of some crops. The Mission estimated food aid requirements for the first semester of 1998 at 82 000 tonnes of cereal equivalent. However, following crop losses due to heavy rains in January and February, a local Mission composed of the Ministry of Agriculture, FAO, WFP, FEWS, EU and SFC revised upwards this estimate to 102 000 tonnes. The poor condition of the road and rail transport system in the region are, however, seriously limiting food aid distribution.
Reflecting insufficient supplies, food prices continued to rise during February, aggravating the already precarious food security situation of the poorer segments of the population. Malnutrition among children under five remains at high levels and the situation is deteriorating among recent returnee populations.
Dry weather in March, following heavy rains and floods in previous months, improved soil conditions for planting of the 1998 main �Gu� season crops. However, abundant rains in southern growing areas in the first and second dekads of April raised concern for further floods and crop prospects.
The 1997/98 secondary �Deyr� crops were sharply reduced by the worst floods of the past three decades. The cereal output was estimated to be only 43 percent of the normal level. This is the fourth consecutive below-average harvest in Somalia. Production of the 1997 main season was reduced by dry spells. Import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year (August/July) are now estimated at 330 000 tonnes, of which only 220 000 tonnes are expected to be imported commercially, leaving a food gap of over 110 000 tonnes.
The floods and related animal diseases resulted also in severe losses of livestock. The situation is further aggravated by a ban on imports of livestock and meat from Somalia by the Gulf countries which are the main market for Somalia�s exports. This is affecting incomes of herders, as well as the country�s foreign exchange earning capacity.
Following the poor 1997/98 cereal harvest, the food situation is extremely tight. Moreover, while dry weather in March improved road conditions for transport and flows of food, renewed inter-clan clashes in Kismayo and a rise in banditry and insecurity in Mogadishu in late March are hampering delivery of food and other assistance in southern areas.
Harvesting of the 1998 wheat crop is about to start. Prospects are favourable reflecting adequate water supplies and favourable temperatures in the past two months. Preliminary official forecast points to an output of 557 000 tonnes, 13 percent lower than the bumper crop of last year but still average. A decline of 15 percent in the area planted, mainly due to removal of marginal areas from wheat in irrigation schemes, will be only partially compensated by higher yields.
Output of the 1997 main season coarse grain was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December 1997 at 4 million tonnes, a decline of 15 percent from the good crop of 1996 but still above average. Crops were negatively affected by insufficient precipitation in parts, particularly in the South. Although production is less than consumption requirements, high levels of carryover sorghum stocks as a result of a ban on exports, will fill the gap to satisfy the requirements. Prices of sorghum remain at relatively low levels reflecting abundant supplies.
Despite the overall satisfactory food supply, the situation is critical in Southern Sudan affected by civil war. The intensified conflict since January, particularly in the Bahr El Ghazal province, has resulted in fresh waves of displaced population, aggravating an already precarious food situation following the 1997 drought reduced harvest. Cereal production was estimated by the FAO/WFP Mission to be down by 45 percent on the previous year (excluding Renk). Eastern Equatoria, Lakes, Bahr El Jebel and Bahr El Ghazal are the most affected States, where the first season crop was lost due to the prolonged early drought. The Mission also estimated that some 60 to 70 per cent of the population in Eastern Equatoria, Bahr El Ghazal, Lakes, parts of Jonglei state and the transitional zones will need emergency food assistance for three to six months in 1998.
Food prices have increased sharply in the south. Widespread food shortages and increased children malnutrition are reported. About 350 000 displaced people in the Bahr El Ghazal province, including 150 000 recently displaced, are considered at risk of famine in the coming months. Distribution of food aid, which had been hampered by Government restrictions since early February, is expected to increase following permission by the Government to resume relief flights into most areas of Bahr El Ghazal. Donors are urged to increase food aid and to provide financial support for other items, particularly seeds and tools for the next cropping season, and for logistic operations.
In the bi-modal rainfall northern and northeastern areas, drier weather from mid-February to early March, following heavy rains from October, allowed harvesting of the 1997/98 �Vuli� crops and improved soil conditions for land preparation and planting of the 1998 �Masika� crops. Early prospects are favourable reflecting ample soil moisture.
In unimodal areas of central, western, southern and southwestern areas, average to above-average precipitation during the first two dekads of April benefited the main maize crop at tasselling stage, reported to be in fair to good condition. However, heavy rains and floods at planting time resulted in delays of field operations and reductions in the area planted. Preliminary official forecast point out to a decline in maize production from the reduced level of last year.
The abundant rains of the past months have benefited perennial crops, as well as pastures and livestock.
The food supply situation is difficult in areas where harvests were poor in 1997. Despite an improvement in road conditions following extensive flooding, food aid distributions continue to be hampered by the damage to the transport infrastructure.
Drier weather since the second half of February, following heavy rains in previous months, improved soil conditions for planting of the 1998 first season crops which is almost completed.
The output of the 1997 second season foodcrops, harvested until February, was lower than anticipated. Excessive rains during the season sharply reduced bean production and lowered yields of maize. However, production of roots, tubers and plantains, the country�s main staples, benefited from the abundant rains.
Prices of maize continued to decline in February and March reflecting the arrival of the new crop into the markets, as well as improvements in the movement of food following improved road conditions. Nevertheless, prices of beans remained at high levels as a result of reduced supplies.
Emergency food assistance continues to be distributed to some 400 000 displaced people in the northern Gulu and Kitgum Districts affected by civil conflict and to 56 000 people affected by food insecurity in north-eastern parts.