Prospects for the 1998 secondary “Belg” crops to be harvested from June are generally favourable reflecting good rains in the main production areas since January. Rains in the second dekad of April, following a dry spell from the second half of March, improved soil moisture in most areas except in northeastern parts where more precipitation is needed. Providing weather conditions are favourable for the remainder of the growing season, output is forecast to recover from the poor level of last year.
The 1997 “Meher” harvest was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 8 786 000 tonnes of cereals and pulses, which is one-quarter below the previous year’s estimates. The reduction in production was primarily a result of poor Belg rains followed by late, low and erratic rainfall during the Meher season, exacerbated by unusually heavy rains at harvest time and 20 percent reduction in fertilizer use.
The Mission estimated a total grain import requirement of 530 000 tonnes in 1998. This includes 110 000 tonnes expected to be covered by commercial imports, and 420 000 tonnes of food aid required for 5.3 million rural people affected by a poor harvest and chronic poverty. However, food aid requirements are fully covered by pledges.
The food supply situation is tight for the affected population, particularly in the zones of southern Tigray, south Wollo and north Shoa. In the southern pastoral areas, despite adequate rains and good pastures conditions, food security is being adversely affected by the ban on imports of livestock and meat by the Gulf countries where most of the region’s exports go.