COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES
The early outlook for the 1998 grain harvest is satisfactory. Some 96 000 hectares were sown to winter wheat in a timely manner and crop condition is good. It is planned to sow an additional 90 000-100 000 hectares to spring wheat and coarse grains. Against the cereal import requirement of 360 000 tonnes, the country has received bulk food aid allocations of 137 000 to date, part of which is being marketed by auction by the state cereal enterprise ARMWHEAT. Most of the balance will be imported commercially but some people continue to need relief assistance.
The winter grain area is officially reported to be nearly 600 000 hectares - some 5 percent less than last year. The area sown to wheat - 536 000 hectares - increased while that sown to barley declined. Growing conditions have been mostly satisfactory to date. Field preparation for the minor spring crop is underway.
The outlook for the 1998 grain harvest is uncertain. Overwintering conditions have, on the whole, been satisfactory but over half of the crop is sown in the spring. Farmers have received credits to enable them to plant but the current financial crisis could affect the ability of the government to finance harvest operations. Some basic foodstuffs have become scarce following the imposition of price restrictions in early March in an effort to halt the rapid fall in value of the Belarussian rouble.
The outlook for the winter wheat harvest is poor due to dry conditions and strong windstorms in the east. The cereal import requirement in 1997/98 is now estimated at 505 000 tonnes and next year�s it could be significantly higher.
GDP is recovering steadily but there are still some 170 000 vulnerable people and IDPs needing targeted assistance.
The bulk of the harvest is sown in May. Winter grain plantings are provisionally estimated at about 700 000 hectares, about the same as last year. There is considerable uncertainty about the expected level of spring grain plantings following a sharp reduction in 1997. Indications are that the aggregate area sown to grains could fall to about 12.6 million hectares from about 14.2 million hectares in 1997, in response to farmers� financial constraints, inadequate availability of seeds, machinery and unremunerative farm-gate prices. Farm privatization is well advanced but actual restructuring is proceeding only slowly and agricultural land remains the property of the state. In view of the lack of collateral for credit and the large number of farms in debt, input use is expected to remain low and grain yields are likely to remain well below potential.
The official target is to equal or improve on the record harvest of 1.7 million tonnes in 1997, by increasing the areas sown and using better adapted wheat seed. However, the profitability of grain is being eroded as output increases. The shortage of fuel and machinery remains a bottle neck.
Spring planting is about to start. In 1997/98 the country has a net exportable surplus of wheat.
Planting of spring grains has started but cold weather has hampered early field work. The outlook for the winter grains � sown on about 400 000 hectares, about the same as last year - is satisfactory, but not as good as in the same period last year. The official target for the 1998 grain harvest is 3.1 million tonnes, about the same as that harvested in 1997.
Spring grain sowing is underway in southern parts. In all some 62 million hectares would have to be sown to spring crops, if the total cropped area is to remain stable. Given the trend to reduce the cropped area, the substantial backlog of autumn ploughing and the persistent shortages of working capital, machinery and fuel, it is likely that the spring crop area target may not be achieved. The federal agricultural credit scheme is working better this year, but the tighter budget situation could limit the additional support the regions can extend. In view of the surplus of feedgrains, and reduced profitability of grain production after last year�s good harvest of 88.5 million tonnes, it is expected that the area sown to spring coarse grains will be reduced. The early outlook for winter grains remains satisfactory; latest indications are that the area sown will remain fairly stable and that about 90 percent of the crop is in good or satisfactory condition. However current indications are that fertilizer applications are less than last year, pointing to lower yields. The final outcome will depend crucially on the extent of spring grain plantings, but most official expectations are for a grain harvest of 10-15 percent less than last year.
Seven months into the 1997/98 marketing year the country had exported only 2 million tonnes from the exportable surplus of 10 million tonnes.
Spring planting is underway and the cropping situation is satisfactory to date. Some 80 percent of the population live below the poverty line and 16 percent do not have the means to secure an adequate diet without targeted food aid. To maximize household food security wheat is planted wherever possible. Although the legal basis for privatization of agricultural land has been established, little progress has been made in its implementation. As a result, wheat and other cereals can be planted only on land not reserved for cotton production, and this includes many marginal or uphill areas. Shortages and high prices of all inputs, and the poor state of the irrigation system will keep yields well below potential.
In 1997/98 the cereal import requirement is estimated at nearly 300 000 tonnes and includes a food aid requirement of 137 000 tonnes, including the need for targeted distribution and food for work projects. WFP will continue to serve a caseload of 500 000 persons during 1998 which will require a total of 32 000 metric tonnes of food aid. The resources, under the existing operation, are available to accomplish this but during the second half of the year it will be necessary to mobilize 15 500 metric tonnes of food stuff that would be used in early 1999. Considering the lead time needed to identify donors and effect shipments to the distribution sites inside of Tajikistan, a new WFP relief operation to cover 1999 needs will be finalized by mid-1998.
The outlook for winter grains, sown on about 500 000 hectares, remains satisfactory. Planting of spring crops is underway. The major crops, wheat and cotton, are now produced by private farmers and farm associations, farming land held in long-term leasehold. These farmers receive subsidized credit for inputs but have to sell output to the state at fixed prices. Given normal weather, improved incentives to produce under leasehold could generate even better yields than last year. However, yields for both crops are likely to remain well below potential due to chronic problems with seed quality, input supply, machinery and the irrigation system.
The outlook is mixed. Better availability of fertilizers could offset the effect of a sharp fall in the area likely to be harvested. Even with normal growing conditions until the harvest, the winter grain area for harvest in 1998 is likely to fall 10 percent to about 6.5 million hectares. The spring grain planting target is 7.2 million hectares. A substantial backlog of autumn ploughing coupled with farm liquidity problems and shortages of machinery, fuel and fertilizer could result in poorer land preparation techniques and lower yields than last year. Early indications are that accumulated debts for inputs provided by the private trade on credit against delivery of the crop at harvest in the past two years has led to a tightening of the terms of such deals and reduced supplies. The 1998 grain harvest could be less than the 35-40 million tonnes projected officially. However, weather conditions will be the deciding factor. Early indications are that the area sown to sunflowers will increase and that the sugarbeet area will remain well below target.
The outlook for winter grains remains satisfactory. About 100 000 hectares of marginal, unirrigated, land have been taken out of grain production. This, given normal growing conditions, should have a positive effect on average yields. The grain production target (including 4.2 million tonnes of wheat and barley) for 1998 is 5.1 million tonnes, compared to actual production of 3.8 million tonnes in 1997. Planting of spring crops is underway in good soil moisture conditions.
Weather conditions have been generally favourable since sowing time throughout the Community, with plentiful rainfall benefiting establishment of the winter crops. Aggregate winter grain plantings are estimated to have increased slightly. Latest information indicates larger areas of wheat and rye but less barley. The area sown to winter wheat is estimated to have increased in particular in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the Community�s major producers. Spring grain planting is already underway in several parts of the Community. Plantings are forecast to rise in France, but in Germany, a smaller area is expected. Based on the condition of crops in the ground and expected spring planting intentions, aggregate wheat output in 1998 is expected to increase somewhat in the Community but output of coarse grains could fall.
The outlook for the 1998 cereal harvest is satisfactory. With regard to the winter wheat crop, which accounts for the bulk of the country's cereal production, indications are that farmers had sufficient incentive and adequate access to inputs to ensure an area at least similar to the previous year�s has been sown.
With wheat output in 1997 only amounting to about half of the estimated consumption requirements in 1997/98(July/June), the country continues to rely on imports. Most of the shortfall is being met by food aid from the EC. As of February reports indicate that the market continues to be adequately supplied with flour although the domestic milling sector is still operating under capacity due to problems of wheat supply at competitive prices. WFP is targeting some 4 200 beneficiaries through Food For Work. Net requirements for 1998 are 1 000 tonnes.
Reflecting ample availability of imported wheat and domestically produced potatoes, and the poor profitability of winter wheat in upland areas, the area sown to winter grains (wheat) has fallen. In BiH, only 43 000 hectares, or 74 percent of the target area, was sown to winter crops. In the Republika Srpska the area sown also fell. By contrast, spring maize plantings are likely to increase. Wheat remains an important staple and the 1997/98 cereal import requirement is estimated at around 275 000 tonnes, mostly for the deficit BiH Federation.
The first official forecast puts the 1998 wheat crop at some 3.3 million tonnes, which would be about 400 000 tonnes down from the final official estimate of the 1997 crop, reflecting a reduced area planted last autumn. Moreover, yield prospects are uncertain as the weather in February was unusually wet and severely constrained fieldwork during the optimum period for fertilizer applications.
Crop production is recovering robustly and the early outlook for 1998 grain harvest remains satisfactory. The winter crop area increased to 284 000 hectares, but remained below target. The winter grain area increased by 11 percent to 260 000 hectares; of which wheat plantings make up 227 000 hectares. The industrial crop area rose by two thirds to nearly 10 000 hectares. Growing conditions have been mixed this winter. Preparations for spring crop plantings are underway and the maize area could also increase.
Latest official information indicates that, contrary to earlier expectations, total winter grain area (mostly wheat) increased by some 11 percent from the previous year, to about 1.1 million hectares, despite a domestic surplus of milling wheat. As a result, and after generally satisfactory weather conditions this winter, an increase in wheat output of about 400 000 tonnes is in prospect. FAO tentatively forecasts the aggregate 1998 cereal output at about 7.5 million tonnes, compared to 7 million tonnes in 1997.
The cropping situation remains satisfactory but spring grain planting is being delayed by unseasonably cold weather.
Prospects for the 1998 cereal harvest remain uncertain. The winter wheat area for harvest this summer is expected to be about 10 percent down from the previous year's due to reduced plantings last autumn, and winterkill caused by dry weather and severe frost during periods of limited snow cover. Although, in March, soil conditions were reported to be generally extremely dry, and close to drought levels in some parts, average yields could still be achieved if April and May rainfall is normal. The current dry conditions could also affect spring planting and germination of summer crops but early indications, assuming normal rainfall arrives soon, point to the likelihood of larger maize plantings at the expense of other non-cereal crops. However, the final outcome of the 1998 cereal harvest will depend greatly on weather conditions in the coming few weeks.
The outlook for winter grains remains satisfactory and spring grain plantings are about to start. The 1997 grain harvest reached 1.04 million tonnes.
Grains have overwintered satisfactorily and the spring crop is about to be planted. Following a good harvest of 3.05 million tonnes in 1997 and an exportable surplus of grains, which is proving difficult to market, the area sown to cereals for harvest in 1998 could decline.
The winter grain area for the 1998 harvest remained close to the previous year's level. The winter wheat area is estimated at around 1.9 million hectares, that for rye at 2.3 million and barley at 200 000 hectares. As a result of exceptionally mild temperatures, winter grains broke dormancy weeks ahead of normal. Wheat production is forecast to increase marginally to about 8 million tonnes if expected higher yields materialize.
Latest information confirms earlier expectations of a sharply reduced cereal output in 1998. Due to adverse weather and shortages of machinery last autumn, winter grain planting was delayed and the area of wheat and barley for harvest this summer is forecast to be about 20 percent below that of the previous year. Moreover, although the development of the winter crops is reported to be satisfactory so far, there are concerns that fertilizer use may be limited having an adverse affect on yields.
Latest indications point to a slightly smaller area of winter grains sown last autumn for the 1998 harvest as farmers have probably responded to better price prospects for oilseeds. However, after dry conditions during planting which were detrimental to germination, overwinter conditions were generally favourable and by the end of March most winter crops were reported to be in good condition. Furthermore, most spring sowing has been carried out under normal soil conditions and thus, so far, yield prospects for the 1998 cereal crops are favourable.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (2 April)
The crop outlook is mixed. The winter grain area declined by only 2 percent to 891 000 hectares but remained well below target. Overall growing conditions have been satisfactory and given normal weather, output could remain close to last year�s 2.9 million tonnes. Planting of spring crops is underway. The spring crop planting target is 2.5 million hectares, including 1.5 million hectares sown to grains. This target may not be fulfilled. A severe shortage of credit this year coupled with low prices for maize after last year�s bumper harvest and very limited exports to date are expected to result in poorer production technology and reduced fertilizer applications to this crop. Yields and the area sown are likely to suffer.
Ongoing tension and sporadic outbreaks of violence in Kosovo province, if they continue, could result in a further reduction in food production. Aggregate wheat and maize production in this food-deficit province has roughly halved since 1991.