An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in March found that one of the severest droughts in this century associated with the El Niño phenomenon combined with the unprecedented financial crisis have reduced food production in Indonesia, adversely affecting Indonesia’s food security.
The Mission forecasts the 1998 paddy harvest at 47.5 million tonnes, 3.6 percent below last year’s already reduced production and 11 percent below the official target. Over 90 percent of the decrease in paddy production is due to the reduction in planted area as a result of the delayed onset of rains. As farmers shifted planting from paddy to secondary (palawija) crops such as maize, soybeans, roots and tubers and groundnuts, production of these is forecast to increase, providing some food security cushion. All production estimates critically hinge on El Niño related developments during the remainder of 1998.
Based on the current production forecast and the utilization needs, the Mission estimates a record rice import requirement of 3.5 million tonnes in the 1998/99 marketing year (April/March). The Indonesian Government plans to import some 1.5 million tonnes between April and September 1998 leaving an uncovered deficit of 2 million tonnes, for which international assistance will be required in the form of rice loans, grants, concessionary imports and targeted food aid. It should be noted that the country will also need to import some 4 million tonnes of wheat during 1998/99, which will impose a further strain on its already overstretched import capacity.