FAO/GIEWS - FOODCROPS AND SHORTAGES No.2, May 1998.

OCEANIA

In Australia, planting of the main 1998 wheat and coarse grains crops is due to start in May. Early indications indicate that the aggregate winter grain area is likely to fall for the second year in succession. After two years of above-average areas sown to the traditional crops of wheat and barley, producers are expected to diversify to crops with better returns such as malting barley, oilseeds and food pulses, and to livestock reflecting the improved price outlook for livestock products. Wheat plantings are forecast to decline by about 9 percent to 9.8 million hectares. However, if normal weather conditions prevail throughout the season, the national average yield is expected to increase somewhat from the previous year, when erratic rainfall patterns affected crops in some areas, and the 1998 wheat output is tentatively forecast at 17 million tonnes. Harvest of the minor 1998 summer coarse grain crop (mostly sorghum) is due to start soon. After generally favourable growing conditions since planting, output of sorghum is forecast to increase to about 1.6 million tonnes, from about 1.2 million tonnes in the previous year. Harvesting of the bulk of 1998 paddy crop should begin in April. As a result of significantly lower water allocations in New South Wales, where virtually all the rice is grown, the area planted to rice declined by 16 percent from 1997 to about 140 000 hectares and paddy production is expected to fall by 14 percent to 1.2 million tonnes. COOK ISLANDS (6 April)

Reports indicate that food crops have been destroyed in the three islands of the Northern Cooks (Pukpuka, Manihiki et Rakahanga) as a result of the Tropical Cyclone Martin, which hit the country in November 1997. The degradation of the lagoon in Manihiki not only threatens fishing but also black pearl cultivation, the main income generating activity and a major export of the Islands. PAPUA NEW GUINEA (6 April)

Prospects for the 1998 crops are generally unfavourable, due to the prolonged drought which has seriously affected many parts of the country. Several areas have received belowaverage rainfall. Food production in 1997 is conservatively estimated to decline by 50 percent from the previous year level as a result of unfavourable weather conditions. The food situation still remains tight in the country where about 1.2 million people were critically affected. SOLOMON ISLANDS (6 April)

Most areas of the Islands have received below-average rainfall. Unofficial reports from rural areas, especially in Western, Choiseul, Central and Isabel provinces indicate that crops have seriously been affected. The effects on crops have become apparent with crops showing signs of wilting and stunting as a result of insufficient water. A National Disaster Council (NDC) is monitoring the situation through Provincial Disaster Committees, Provincial Governments and line ministries.