Heavy rain and flooding in the northern parts of the country due to El Niño have resulted in serious damage to housing and some crops, particularly paddy and cotton. Important localized crop losses and a number of casualties are reported. Weather conditions had benefited harvesting of the 1998 maize crop, which has been interrupted in the affected areas. Satisfactory yields have been so far obtained in all key producing regions, except in southeastern Buenos Aires Province where high temperatures and heavy rains in late March adversely affected the developing crop. Early maize production forecasts point to a historic high of 18.2 million tonnes. Harvesting of the sorghum crop has begun and satisfactory yields are being also gathered. A record 3.8 million tonnes is tentatively forecast. A bumper paddy was anticipated but final outcome will be determined by the damage caused by recent rains.
Fieldwork has started in some parts in preparation for planting of the 1998 wheat crop to be started from June.
Generally dry conditions associated with El Niño in the highlands and valleys have resulted in reduced plantings and anticipated low yields, while heavy rain and flooding in the lowlands are threatening several crops. Harvesting of the 1997/98 first ( main ) season cereal crops has started and lower outputs, relative to the previous year, are expected particularly for maize and the important potato crop. Considerable losses to the barley crop are also reported.
Several parts of the country continue to be severely affected by El Niño-related effects. In the northern State of Roraima, high temperatures and below-normal rainfall resulted in widespread forest fires with consequent damage to crops in the affected areas. Planting of the 1998 wheat crop has started in the main producing state of Parana and should start from May in the second largest producing state of Rio Grande do Sul. Plantings in both states should decline from 1997 largely as a consequence of difficulties in financing last year’s harvest and the low quality of wheat obtained because of adverse weather conditions. Early forecasts point to an area planted of something less than 1.4 million hectares compared to 1.5 million hectares in 1997.
Harvesting of the 1998 maize crop continues in the main producing southern states while planting has started in the North-East, currently affected by prolonged dry weather associated with El Niño. A total domestic output of 32.5 million tonnes is provisionally forecast compared to 34 million tonnes in 1997. This mainly reflects the combination of farmers’ decision to switch to alternative crops attracted by higher prices relative to maize and the adverse effect of weather in some parts.
Harvesting of the 1997/98 paddy crop has been delayed because of El Niño induced heavy rains in the main producing areas. Output is expected to be about 9.7 million tonnes, a slight improvement over the previous year, but still below average. Wheat, maize and rice imports are expected to increase considerably in 1998 to compensate for domestic production deficits.
Planting of the 1998/99 wheat crop is about to start under generally normal conditions. Normal to above-normal rains are forecast in the weeks ahead. Plantings are expected to increase from 1997/98 as the crop was affected by heavy rains associated with El Niño and the area planted in the main growing areas consequently reduced. Harvesting of the 1998 maize crop has started and early forecasts point to an average 900 000 tonnes which compares to a low 780 000 tonnes in 1997. The anticipated recovery would be largely due to increased plantings and improved yields relative to the previous year.
Accumulated moisture deficits diminished in the northwestern and eastern parts as a consequence of the moderate rains in March. The outlook is uncertain, however, for planting of the 1998 first season cereal crops, which is about to start, as drier than normal conditions are forecast to persist in the next few weeks, particularly in some Caribbean coastal areas and Andean zones, and farmers are still fearful of planting their rainfed crops. Maize plantings are expected to be lower than average, while growers of paddy, the other main cereal, in the main producing eastern areas have started sowing in February.
Maize imports in marketing year 1998 (January/December) are expected to be close to last year’s high level of receipts while paddy imports are so far forecast at 350 000 tonnes compared to less than 200 000 tonnes in 1997.
Heavy rains and flooding caused by El Niño continued in March all along the coastal provinces, reaching record precipitation levels in various parts and causing enormous damage to housing and infrastructure. In the highlands, irregular rains with historical high and low levels recorded in some areas, and freezing temperatures at night, have resulted in damage to crops. In the eastern areas, irregular rains are also reported, with extremely high and low levels of precipitation in different locations. Harvesting of the 1998 maize crop, the main cereal, has started and production is expected to decline from 1997 record, but final output will be largely determined by the intensity of the rains which are forecast to continue through May. Severe damage is reported to other crops, such as the important sugar cane crop, which has also been largely affected in its infrastructure. Substantial losses have been incurred to the significant foreign exchange earner banana crop. In total, about 300 000 hectares of crop land have been left uncultivated or damaged. The fishery sector, particularly the shrimp exporting industry, is also reported to have suffered immense losses. Diseases of various types are registered in many coastal locations principally as a consequence of poor sanitary conditions.
Severe drought conditions due to El Niño in the southern areas of the country have resulted in a decline in food production. The 1998 first season paddy crop, the main food crop, is forecast at about 120 000 tonnes less than an earlier estimate of 170 000 tonnes. Sugar and other crops are also reported to be affected. The food situation is tight for approximately 500 families who are also suffering from the lack of drinkable water supply. Forest fires are reported in the hinterlands. Limited manpower and equipment, combined with the low water level of the rivers, make the extinguishing operations difficult. A state of emergency has been declared by the Government, which has initiated relief programmes for the affected families.
Planting of the 1998 wheat crop has started under wetter than normal conditions attributed to El Niño. The area planted is expected to be close to last year’s slightly above-average level.
Harvesting of the 1998 maize crop is underway and early forecasts indicate that output should decline from 1997 historic record but would still remain well above average. Harvesting of the paddy crop is about to be completed and production should be close to last year’s record.
The country continues to be affected by torrential rains and flooding in the northern coastal departments of Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque, Cajamarca and La Libertad, and in the inland department of Cusco and coastal Lima, where landslides and flooding are reported. Severe damage to housing and infrastructure is reported, particularly to roads, leaving several cities and villages in an isolated state. The number of casualties and injuries continues to increase. Severe damage to cash and food crops is equally reported, but a detailed assessment of damage incurred to the agricultural sector has not yet been made because of difficulties encountered in accessing many affected locations. Relief operations to assist the affected population are being implemented by the Government as well as measures to help mitigate the impact of the phenomenon, such as reinforcements of riverbeds and reconstruction of dikes. Harvesting of the 1998 cereal crops has started and output for every cereal is tentatively forecast to decline from 1997 high levels. The extent of the reduction will largely depend upon the intensity and duration of the rains.
Dry weather and high temperatures caused by El Niño have been particularly intensive in the last five months. Water reservoirs are reported to be at critical low levels. Power cuts are being implemented by the Government. The effects of the phenomenon are expected to continue through May. Low yields have been obtained from the paddy crop, the main cereal, and imports will be necessary to meet the deficit in production. The banana export crop is also reported to be adversely affected by the phenomenon.
Harvesting of the 1998 maize and paddy crops are currently underway and early production forecasts point to a record 205 000 tonnes and 1.1 million tonnes, respectively. Both crops have benefited from an adequate level of humidity brought by El Niño, which, by contrast, negatively affected this year’s wheat and barley crops.
Normal rains are reported in the main cereal producing areas of the country. Planting of the 1998 maize and paddy crops is about to start. Maize plantings are tentatively forecast to remain close to 1997 above-average level. The area planted to paddy is expected to increase from last year’s already high level, largely in response to the possibility of an expansion of exports to neighbouring countries.