Dry weather in March, following heavy rains and floods in previous months, improved soil conditions for planting of the 1998 main “Gu” season crops. However, abundant rains in southern growing areas in the first and second dekads of April raised concern for further floods and crop prospects.
The 1997/98 secondary ”Deyr” crops were sharply reduced by the worst floods of the past three decades. The cereal output was estimated to be only 43 percent of the normal level. This is the fourth consecutive below-average harvest in Somalia. Production of the 1997 main season was reduced by dry spells. Import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year (August/July) are now estimated at 330 000 tonnes, of which only 220 000 tonnes are expected to be imported commercially, leaving a food gap of over 110 000 tonnes.
The floods and related animal diseases resulted also in severe losses of livestock. The situation is further aggravated by a ban on imports of livestock and meat from Somalia by the Gulf countries which are the main market for Somalia’s exports. This is affecting incomes of herders, as well as the country’s foreign exchange earning capacity.
Following the poor 1997/98 cereal harvest, the food situation is extremely tight. Moreover, while dry weather in March improved road conditions for transport and flows of food, renewed inter-clan clashes in Kismayo and a rise in banditry and insecurity in Mogadishu in late March are hampering delivery of food and other assistance in southern areas.