Spring grain sowing is underway in southern parts. In all some 62 million hectares would have to be sown to spring crops, if the total cropped area is to remain stable. Given the trend to reduce the cropped area, the substantial backlog of autumn ploughing and the persistent shortages of working capital, machinery and fuel, it is likely that the spring crop area target may not be achieved. The federal agricultural credit scheme is working better this year, but the tighter budget situation could limit the additional support the regions can extend. In view of the surplus of feedgrains, and reduced profitability of grain production after last year’s good harvest of 88.5 million tonnes, it is expected that the area sown to spring coarse grains will be reduced. The early outlook for winter grains remains satisfactory; latest indications are that the area sown will remain fairly stable and that about 90 percent of the crop is in good or satisfactory condition. However current indications are that fertilizer applications are less than last year, pointing to lower yields. The final outcome will depend crucially on the extent of spring grain plantings, but most official expectations are for a grain harvest of 10-15 percent less than last year.
Seven months into the 1997/98 marketing year the country had exported only 2 million tonnes from the exportable surplus of 10 million tonnes.