Overall prospects for the 1998 harvest in May/June are somewhat favourable due to generally favourable precipitation during winter and spring and improved security in many areas. An FAO/WFP Mission which visited the country in May 1998 estimated the 1997/98 total cereal production at 3.85 million tonnes, 5 percent higher than last year. However, this figure is likely to be revised downwards, as a result of the recent earthquake which hit the northern part of the country. The food situation remains very tight in the affected areas despite efforts by humanitarian agencies to provide relief assistance.
Planting of the 1998/99 Aus paddy crop, for harvest in July/August, has begun under favourable conditions. Harvesting of the Boro paddy crop is well underway. The total production of milled rice in 1997/98, is estimated at some 18.57 million tonnes, comprising 1.87 million tonnes from Aus, 8.85 million tonnes from the Aman and 7.85 million tonnes from the Boro crops respectively. This compares with 1996/97 total output of 18.88 million tonnes.
The output of the recently harvested wheat crop is estimated at a record 1.8 million tonnes, some 24 percent above last year's bumper crop and about 41 percent higher than the previous five years average due to increased plantings and higher yields. Total cereal imports in 1997/98 (July/June) are currently forecast at around 1.86 million tonnes of which rice imports account for 1.04 million tonnes. As of end-April, government-held cereal stocks totalled 594 000 tonnes, of which 158 000 tonnes were rice and 436 000 tonnes wheat.
Harvesting of dry season paddy was completed in March/April and an output of 735 000 tonnes is expected. Aggregate paddy production in 1997/98 is therefore put at 3.44 million tonnes, from an area of 2.06 million hectares. This is the third consecutive year of favourable production and as a result, the country now has a national surplus of some 170 000 tonnes of paddy (105 000 tonnes milled rice) for 1998/99. Overall, the food supply situation is favourable with satisfactory stock levels. However, food supply difficulties are reported in some districts which were affected by floods and drought in 1997 and considerable rice price rises are reported in provinces bordering Vietnam due to exports by local traders.
Heavy rains in recent weeks maintained favourable conditions for summer crops, including rice, across most parts of the country, though loss of life, property and infrastructure were reported due to floods. In northern parts of the country, rains benefited germinating to vegetative summer crops and aided the late-filling of winter wheat. Widespread showers also maintained rice irrigation supplies across central and southern China. However, recent reports indicate that a lower summer grain output than last year is anticipated due to excess rainfall and locusts.
Official reports indicate that production of the 1998 wheat crop is anticipated to decline by 2-4 percent from last year's record crop of 124 million tonnes. The decline is due to snow and low temperatures which hit parts of southern China and the drought conditions in the north.
The 1998 aggregate output of wheat and barley, now being harvested, is estimated at 38 000 tonnes, some 19 percent lower than last year. Imports of wheat in 1998/99 (May/April) are forecast at 95 000 tonnes. Aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes.
On 9 June a cyclonic storm hit western parts of India, resulting in more than 900 deaths and displacing a large number of people with considerable damage to infrastructure. However, overall crop damage was limited, as Kharif planting had not begun and there were no standing crops.
Harvesting of the mainly wheat Rabi (winter) crops is complete. This year's wheat output is officially estimated at 66.5 million tonnes against the previous year's record production of 69.3 million tonnes. The decline was attributed to delayed monsoon in parts followed by heavy rains during the optimal planting period of November through mid-December. The official estimate of foodgrain production (including milled rice and pulses) in 1997/98 is put at 195 million tonnes, nearly 3 million tonnes below last year's record production of 198 million tonnes. However, aggregate paddy output for 1997/98, including Kharif and Rabi, is estimated at a record 123 million tonnes. It is estimated that the Food Corporation of India (FCI) had procured 6.8 million tonnes of wheat from farmers up to May 10, compared with 2.7 million tonnes in the same period last year. The Government expects to procure a record 12 million tonnes of wheat for sale in the current marketing season compared with 9.2 million in the last season.
Harvesting of the main season paddy crop is now complete after several weeks of delay resulting from the late start of the season due to El Ni�o-related drought. This year's paddy production was provisionally forecast by the March 1998 FAO/WFP Mission at 47.5 million tonnes, some 3.6 percent below the 1997 reduced harvest. Over 90 percent of the decrease is attributed to the reduction in planted area. However, the final paddy production estimate for 1998 will critically depend on the outcome of the secondary crop harvest in August. The Mission called for a large-scale international assistance to meet the shortfall in rice, the country's staple food. The Indonesian Government plans to import approximately 1.5 million tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of 2 million tonnes.
Recently an Emergency Operation with a total cost of about US$ 88.2 million to assist 4.6 million most vulnerable people was approved jointly by FAO and WFP for a period of 395 days. An appeal for a total cost of US$18.6 million is also made by FAO for technical assistance and agricultural rehabilitation of drought-stricken areas.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (1 June)
In the second dekad of May, floods caused by torrential rains were reported to have killed at least 11 people in north-western Iran. The floods, in a rural area of East Azerbaijan province, also injured 30 people and caused damage to farmland and cattle.
A bumper wheat crop of about 10.5 million tonnes is in prospect due to increased rains and snow this year. At this level production is slightly above the average for the previous five years. Official reports have indicated that the country's wheat import requirements for the current marketing year (April/March), amounting to 3 million tonnes, have already been bought and some of this have entered the country.
Prospects for the 1998 cereal harvest in May/June remain uncertain. The rainfall has been below average and unevenly distributed, and has substantially affected sowing operations. This season's production is likely to be constrained, as last year, by serious shortages of essential agricultural inputs and the widespread incidence of pests, weeds and animal diseases.
Despite some improvement in the overall food supply situation following the implementation of the "Oil for food" deal, malnutrition still remains a serious problem throughout Iraq. Although food rations under the deal provide a significant proportion of overall energy and protein needs, the provisions are low or deficient in a number of other nutrients, particularly Vitamins.
In view of these shortfalls, the UN Secretary- General has approved the distribution plan for the fourth phase of the oil-for-food deal, allowing Iraq to sell up to US$5.2 billion worth of crude oil over a six month period, to buy food, medicine and health supplies, and for emergency infrastructure repairs.
The output from the 1998 wheat crop, now being harvested, is expected to be about 168 000 tonnes, some 20 percent higher than last year, as a result of favourable weather conditions. Imports of cereals in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.6 million tonnes, 2 percent higher than in previous year.
Planting of the 1998 paddy crop is well underway. Beneficial rainfall continued to improve soil moisture reserves and irrigation supplies are also adequate to support ongoing plantings. This year about 963 000 hectares, an increase of 176 000 hectares from the previous year, will be set aside under the country's Area Land Diversion Programme designed to cut production and reduce large stocks. The 1997/98 cereal imports are estimated at 27.5 million tonnes, slightly higher than the previous year, mainly due to increased coarse grain imports.
Aggregate output of wheat and barley in 1998 is estimated at 110 000 tonnes, 100 percent higher than the previous year's poor harvest. Imports of wheat in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 800 000 tonnes and that of rice at 90 000 tonnes. Coarse grains imports in 1997/98 are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes.
Planting of the 1998 paddy crop is well underway, and conditions are generally favourable so far due to continued rainfall. However, area under rice is expected to decline due to a shift to more lucrative cash crops. The target for paddy production in 1998 has provisionally been set at 6.7 million, 11 percent lower than last year. Cereal imports in 1997/98 are estimated at 11.6 million tonnes compared to 13.1 million tonnes in 1996/97.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (18 June)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which visited the country from 2-12 June, found that the food supply difficulties have deepened, with the Public Food Distribution System ceasing to function since March. As a result, deaths related to dietary deficiencies have increased, with people relying on the consumption of herbs, wild plants, roots and wild fruits.
Last year, FAO and WFP estimated the country's food import requirements at 1.95 million tonnes for 1997/98 (Nov/Oct), but only 400 000 tonnes of food aid were received with another 400 000 tonnes pledged. Commercial imports to make up for the shortfall are constrained by the country's lack of foreign exchange reserves and severe economic difficulties. More international assistance is therefore urgently required.
Furthermore, prospects for quick recovery in food production will depend heavily on adequate supplies of essential inputs, such as fertilizers and seeds. On 28 May, at a roundtable meeting in Geneva, the government appealed for US$300 million from the international community to restore its farming sector and end its dependence on international food aid. In this regard, FAO has updated its requested contribution within the 1998 UN Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal to US$14 million.
Early prospects for 1998 crops are favourable, reflecting good rains since the beginning of May. Planting of maize and most of the paddy is complete. Food production in 1998 will crucially depend on the rainfall situation in the coming, usually wet, months. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that production will be substantially below requirements for the next marketing year.
In Laos, adverse weather conditions have caused crop damage in major rice producing areas, exacerbating localised food supply problems in the country. On 27 May 1998, the government appealed to the international community for food aid amounting to 35 000 tonnes of rice. Harvesting of the irrigated secondary paddy crop is underway. The total rice production in 1997 is estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, about 13 percent above average.
The output of 1998 wheat and barley, now being harvested, is expected to be about 62 000 tonnes, about the same as last year. Imports of wheat in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.5 million tonnes.
Planting of the second paddy crop, which normally accounts for about 38 percent of aggregate production has been favoured in early May by moderate showers across the peninsula. Paddy production in 1998 is provisionally forecast to be slightly lower than the 1997 estimate of 2.1 million tonnes due to reduced plantings.
Farmers are reported to be preparing for the cropping season. Official estimates indicate that this year there is a need for about 61 000 tonnes of grain seed. The National Reserve Fund is expected to provide about 9 200 tonnes of grain seeds to farms with a clean record of bank loans. Taking into account seed stocks held by farms, the shortage of seed is estimated to be around 8 000 tonnes. Other inputs, such as diesel, were reported to be available but lack of credit for these inputs is anticipated to be a constraint.
Aggregate output of cereals in 1997, estimated at 240 000 tonnes, was about 33 percent below the average for the previous five years. Declining agricultural production and problems of economic transition continue to adversely affect the food situation of vulnerable groups. The tight food supply situation is likely to deteriorate until the next harvest in September.
Provisional estimates of recently harvested secondary paddy crop indicate an output of about 3 million tonnes from 1 million hectares. The aggregate output of paddy for 1997/98 is officially estimated at 17.3 million tonnes, slightly below last year, but about 1 percent above the average for the previous five years. Planting of the main paddy crop for harvest in October is underway. The target for this year's aggregate paddy output is set at 20 million tonnes. In 1998, rice exports are estimated to be around 40 000 tonnes, more than 3 times higher than the 1997 export of 15 000 tonnes.
Harvesting of the wheat crop was completed under favourable weather conditions. Output is provisionally estimated at around 1 million tonnes, similar to last year's production. Paddy production in 1997, estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, is about 14 percent below the previous year's harvest despite an increase in area planted to paddy by about 4 percent. However, at this level production is still about 10 percent higher than the average for the previous five years. Paddy and maize are being planted to coincide with the onset of monsoon rains.
Harvesting of wheat is complete. Official estimates put the wheat output at a record 19 million tonnes, some 10 percent above both last year and the average for the previous five years. The increase reflects increased plantings, adequate fertilizer supplies and the increase in the support price for farmers by over 30 percent. Planting of paddy and coarse grain crops is well underway benefiting from early season showers in May. Official reports indicated that about 1.5 million tonnes of rice will be exported from the 1997/98 record milled rice output of 4.6 million tonnes.
Wheat imports in 1998/99 (May/April) are officially reported to be about 1 million tonnes, as against an estimated 4.3 million tonnes imported last year.
Harvesting of the secondary paddy and coarse grains is almost complete. The output of paddy in 1997/98 is forecast at some 10.6 million tonnes, 5 percent lower than last year. The decrease is due to lack of adequate irrigation water caused by the prolonged El Ni�o-related drought. Maize production is also expected to decline by some 5 percent from last year's output of 4.3 million tonnes. Moreover, planting of the main season paddy crop is hampered by the drought conditions. These conditions have affected several provinces in Mindanao, resulting in severe food shortages, particularly South Cotabato, Saranggani, Maguindanao and North Cotabato. The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) has estimated that about 497 000 households are affected, of which 211 900 households are in dire need. The NFA is reported to have contracted a record import of 1.35 million tonnes of rice for delivery this year.
Due to favourable growing conditions, aggregate output of wheat and barley in 1998 is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, some 16 percent higher than last year. Adult Desert Locusts and perhaps a few small swarms may appear in the interior near Najran and Dawasir and breed in areas that received rainfall. Low number of locusts may persist on the southern Tihama near Jizan and breed if additional rains fall. Imports of barley in 1998/99 (July/June) are currently forecast at 5.5 million tonnes.
The output of the recently harvested main (maha) paddy crop is provisionally estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, some 25 percent above last year's harvest and about 13 percent higher than the average for the previous five years, reflecting higher yields. The secondary (yala) paddy crop, whose planting is almost complete, is expected to benefit from the availability of ample water supplies in the irrigation reservoirs. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Following the good harvest in 1997 adequate rice stocks are held by the Government and private traders and rice imports are expected to be much smaller than last year's volume of 300 000 tonnes.
The output of wheat in 1998, now being harvested, is estimated at 4.05 million tonnes, 34 percent higher than last year. Barley harvest is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, some 83 percent higher than in the previous year. Imports of wheat flour in 1998/99 are forecast at some 1.3 million tonnes, whilst barley imports are forecast at 500 000 tonnes.
The output of the secondary paddy crop is estimated at about 4.4 million tonnes, slightly more the government's forecast. High prices encouraged farmers to cultivate more land to rice despite warnings of low level of water supplies. Fieldwork for the main paddy crop and coarse grain crops is well underway. Output target for the total 1998 paddy production is set at 23 million tonnes, about 4 percent higher than the 1997 estimate and about 8 percent above the average for the previous five years. Rice exports in 1998 are set to exceed 5.5 million tonnes, reflecting a strong export demand, against 5.4 million tonnes exported in 1997.
WFP has appealed for international food assistance amounting to about 15 000 tonnes for some 90 000 Cambodian refugees fleeing to Thailand to escape internal conflict.
Output of the 1998 wheat crop is provisionally estimated at 19 million tonnes compared to 18.7 million tonnes in 1997. However, this figure could be revised downwards as a result of floods and torrential rains which recently swept across the country. Turkish Marketing Board (TMO) plans to buy six million tonnes of grains from farmers in 1998/99 at prices 60.6 percent higher than last year. Wheat imports in 1998/99 are forecast at some 1 million tonnes and maize imports are forecast at 700 000 tonnes.
Good rains in the last dekad of May have brought some relief to the drought affected areas of the central highlands and the south, but the total rainfall for May was well below average. The drought damage to the winter-spring paddy crop, which has just been harvested, is reported to have been slight. However, the dry conditions are affecting the summer-autumn crop, which makes up close to a quarter of total output. The 1998 paddy production is expected to be slightly less than last year's output of 27.5 million tonnes.
In the first four months of this year, rice exports reached 2.3 million tonnes, a 160 percent increase over the same period last year. In the last week of May, the Government partially lifted a ban on fresh rice export contracts, allowing some state-owned firms to negotiate new deals. The target for the whole of 1998 is 4 million tonnes. Last year 3.5 million tonnes were exported.
Aggregate output of sorghum and wheat, to be harvested toward October, is estimated at 604 000 tonnes, some 28 percent higher than last year.
Isolated adults of Desert Locusts may persist on the northern Red Sea coastal plains near the Saudi Arabian border and breed if additional rains fall. Unless ecological conditions improve in the eastern region, adults are expected to fly over the area.
Imports of cereals in 1998 - mainly wheat - are estimated at some 2.6 million tonnes.