Good rains in the first two dekads of May maintained adequate growing conditions for the 1998 second season foodcrops, to be harvested from June. Despite favourable weather conditions since the beginning of the season and larger plantings due to the return of farm families from "regroupment" camps to their land, the recovery in this season's production will be constrained by lower use of fertilizers as a result of the current trade embargo, and shortages of quality seeds following two consecutive reduced harvests.
The poor crop last season, the current embargo by neighbouring countries, insecurity in parts and displacement of a large number of people have resulted in increased food insecurity. Prices of food, which have risen sharply since late 1997, have stabilized at high levels during May. The food situation is particularly serious for some 600 000-700 000 most vulnerable people who have no access to their land or who have returned but have not been able to plant crops this season. Some 300 000 people are estimated to have suffered major food shortages. Increased malnutrition is also reported from displaced camps.
Planting of the 1998 cereal and pulse crops is about to start. The rainy season has not yet started. Locust population declined sharply following Government's successful control operations during the past months.
The food situation remains tight as a result of a poor 1997 harvest and reduced import availability from neighbouring countries. Cereal and pulse prices continue to increase and are substantially above their level of a year ago.
Abundant rains in the first two dekads of May benefited the 1998 "Belg" crops to be harvested from June. The "Belg" production accounts for some 7 percent of the aggregate cereal production of the country, but it is important in several areas, where it provides the bulk of the annual food supplies. Despite a dry spell in late March and first dekad of April, subsequent good rains have allowed a recovery of the crops. Overall prospects for the harvest are favourable and output is anticipated to recover substantially from last year's reduced level.
The good rains in May have also improved soil conditions for planting of the 1998 main season cereal crops and benefited early planted ones. With the on-going Government programme to deliver fertilizers, early prospects are favourable for the coming season.
Despite an overall satisfactory food supply situation, food difficulties are being experienced by some 5.3 million people affected by a reduced 1997 main season crop and the vulnerable population groups. Against emergency food aid requirement of 420 000 tons food aid, pledges by the end of May amounted to 395 000 tons, of which 208 000 have been delivered.
Prospects for the 1998 main season cereal crops are favourable. Despite a delay in the start of the rainy season, abundant precipitation in April and May allowed planting and benefited early planted crops. Production is expected to be normal and higher than last year when dry spells and rains at harvest reduced yields. Rains in June will be crucial for the outcome of this season's crops.
Following the reduced main maize crop of last year, the import requirement in marketing year 1997/98 (October/September) is estimated at 750 000 tonnes, most of which is anticipated to be imported commercially.
Normal to above-normal rains since the beginning of the rainy season have maintained adequate growing conditions for the 1998 second season food crops, to be harvested from June. However, the recovery in production from the previous season's level, which was affected by excessive rains, is expected to be limited by reduced plantings due to severe shortages of seeds, insecurity in parts and lack of labour in several areas.
The tight food supply situation following an insufficient harvest last season has deteriorated in the past months with increasing insecurity and violent incidents in the north-western prefectures of Gitarama and in parts of Ruhengeri and Gisenyi. A large number of people have become displaced. Serious food shortages are reported in several areas, but logistic difficulties due to heavy rains and floods early in the year have severely limited the amount of food aid delivered, which remained well below the estimated requirements. Food prices, which have risen sharply in the past months, stabilized in May.
The outlook for the 1998 main "Gu" cereal crop, accounting for some 80 percent of the annual production in normal years, is unfavourable. The area planted to the main maize and sorghum crops is estimated to be substantially reduced as a result of insufficient and irregular rains since the beginning of the season, coupled with a combination of negative factors associated with last year's floods. These include an overlapping of the harvest of the off-season crops sown from January to March with planting of the Gu crops; excessive weeds; insect and rodent attacks; fields still flooded; destruction of canals and river embankments; loss of pumps and lack of cash for hiring tractors following the loss of employment opportunities. Insecurity also contributed to the reductions in the area planted in parts.
Yields are also likely to be negatively affected due a prolonged dry spell in the second dekad of May and because most of the sorghum consists of lower yielding "ratoons" from crops of the previous season.
A reduced 1998 Gu cereal crop would be the fifth successive bad harvest, which could have serious implications for the already precarious food situation of the majority of the population.
Harvesting of the 1998 wheat crop is complete. The output is provisionally estimated at 550 000 tonnes, 13 percent down on the bumper crop of last year but still above average. A reduction of 17 percent in the area planted was partially compensated by higher yields due to adequate water supplies and favourable temperatures. Planting of the 1998 main season cereal crops, is about to start in northern and central areas.
Despite an overall satisfactory food supply position, grave food supply difficulties persist in southern parts of the country. Intensified civil conflict since January, particularly in Bahr El Ghazal, has resulted in fresh waves of population displacement, aggravating an already precarious food situation following the 1997 drought-reduced harvest. This, together with difficulties in distribution of relief assistance, has led to severe malnutrition in Bahr El Ghazal, Western Upper Nile and Eastern Equatoria States, with starvation-related deaths reported from some areas. Food prices have risen sharply throughout the region and are too high for the majority of the population. Coping mechanisms have been largely exhausted. In Bahr El Ghazal region alone 350 000 people, including 150 000 recently displaced, are at risk of starvation unless adequate relief assistance is distributed urgently. Nutrition surveys carried out by UNICEF on children under five in Wau, the capital of West Bahr El Ghazal, indicate an overall malnutrition rate of 29 percent, with 9 percent severely malnourished.
Early prospects for the 1998 main season food crops, to be harvested from July, are not encouraging. Plantings, which normally take place in April, have been reduced. Large areas have remained uncultivated because of population displacement. Latest satellite images indicate late, erratic and generally insufficient rainfall from late March to late May, with precipitation well below normal in Bahr El Gazal, the state most affected by the civil strife, and in areas of Western Equatoria. Severe shortages of seeds, following last year's poor harvest, have also compromised plantings.
Normal to above normal rains in May benefited crops of the main "long rains" season in unimodal central and southern areas. Harvesting is about to start. However, the recovery in this year's output from the reduced level of 1997 may be limited by reductions in the area planted due to heavy rains and floods at planting time.
In bi-modal rainfall areas of the north and northeast, abundant rains since April benefited the crops of the "Masika" season. The outlook for the harvest from August is satisfactory. Pastures and livestock are reported in good condition reflecting generally abundant rains in the last months of last year. The food supply situation in areas affected by a reduced 1997 crop is expected to improve from next month with the arrival of the new harvest.
Prospects for the 1998 first season foodcrops, to be harvested from July, have deteriorated following a dry spell in central and south-eastern parts since the second dekad of May. More precipitation is needed to avoid reductions in yield potential. Despite a delay in the onset of the rainy season, the area planted to the maize crop is estimated to have increased from last year's level when shortages of seeds were experienced.
Overall food supply conditions are satisfactory. Prices of beans and maize remain stable and are below their levels of a year ago. However, food shortages are reported in western and northern parts where the 1997 second season harvest was reduced. The situation is also difficult for the refuge and displaced population in Gulu and Kitgum Districts where civil strife persists. Increased insecurity in Kabarola and Kasase Districts in the west has resulted in further population displacements.