An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited Angola in April/May estimated the 1997/98 cereal production at 594 000 tonnes, some 38 percent higher than last year's reduced harvest due to poor rains. Production of other crops, particularly cassava, sweet potatoes and perennials is also estimated to be better from an increased planted area and better yields due to favourable rainfall.
Total imports for the 1998/99 marketing year are estimated at 470 000 tonnes, including 120 000 tonnes of food aid. Some 750 000 vulnerable people, including internally displaced persons, returnees and demobilized soldiers, require emergency assistance. It is estimated that 90 000 tonnes of relief food aid will be needed to meet their requirements. In addition, food insecurity remains high, largely due to the recent deterioration of the security situation in several provinces and poor infrastructure. As a result, it will be difficult to move the food surplus in central and northern areas to deficit areas. Food aid pledges by donors amount to 88 000 tonnes so far, of which 13 000 have been delivered.
Harvesting of the 1998 cereal crop is almost complete and production is expected to be below average. Erratic and poorly distributed rainfall in March and April seriously affected yields in several parts of the country, leading to a major crop loss. Total cereal output is not expected to exceed 10 000 tonnes, a sharp drop compared to the 1997 below average crop of 27 000 tonnes. Even in good years, the country imports over half of its cereal needs. It is therefore anticipated that available grain stocks and planned imports by major commercial millers will meet national requirements during the 1998/99 marketing year.
Rainfall during much of the 1997/98 cropping season has been erratic and poorly distributed. As a result, cereal production is expected to be about 130 000 tonnes, which is below average. Consequently, the overall food supply situation during the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to be tight. Government arrangement for a large amount of imports will need to be made to avoid food difficulties.
Following generally favourable weather conditions, production prospects are relatively favourable for rice and other crops currently being harvested. Output may be somewhat lower than last year's relatively good crop of 2.5 million tonnes. Initial indications are that locusts had no significant impact on cereal. If cassava is ready for harvest (mature), the effect of locusts would be nil. However, as the infestation has now spread from the southern dry zones to the midwest and northern more fertile regions, the threat to staple crops and cattle pastures remains serious. The overall food supply situation in the country is expected to remain relatively stable during the current marketing year, including in the drought-prone south, where locust damage to crops and pastures is reported to be variable.
Following abundant and widely distributed rainfall in most parts of the country, the 1998 crop being harvested is officially estimated at 1.88 million tonnes, which is above average and 13 percent higher than the 1997 relatively good crop. As a consequence, the overall food supply situation is expected to improve substantially during the 1998/99 marketing year. Localized areas of food deficit in the north, where excessive rains resulted in flooding with loss of crops, are expected to be assisted under Government programmes helped by aid agencies.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited Mozambique in April/May, estimated the 1998 production of cereals at 1.69 million tonnes, up by about 10 percent on last year's good crop. The increase is attributable to both increased area planted and harvested and increased yields for all cereals, particularly in the northern and central provinces. Production of cassava, groundnuts and beans is also expected to increase significantly in 1998 compared to last year.
The overall food supply situation, which improved in the last marketing year, is expected to improve further in 1998/99, reflecting the increased food production. An exportable surplus of 59 000 tonnes of maize is forecast, but import requirements of 67 000 tonnes and 145 000 tonnes are expected for rice and wheat, respectively, expected to be met largely by private sector imports. Localized food shortages exist in several areas as a result of crop loss caused mainly by floods, requiring emergency food aid for the affected people until the second season harvest next September. Food deficits are also faced by some families in the dry south, for which donor assistance will be necessary to mobilize surplus food for people in these areas.
The 1998 production of cereals is expected to be below normal as a consequence of erratic rainfall with prolonged dry spells in March/April. These caused widespread crop failures in the northeastern part of the country, particularly the Caprivi and Kavango regions where many subsistence farmers could not even plant any staple foodcrops this year. The national food supply situation is expected to be tight during the 1998/99 marketing year. Although large carry over stocks from last year's bumper harvest will help cushion the impact of the anticipated food shortage, large quantities of cereals will have to be imported in the coming months, primarily through commercial channels. The Government has recently approved a national drought strategy, which includes the setting up of a permanent national drought fund in order to find ways to ensure household food security, particularly for vulnerable groups.
Harvesting is well advanced for the 1998 coarse grain crop. Official estimates of maize production point to an output of 7.88 million tonnes, some 19 percent below average but somewhat better than initial estimates of the season's outcome. In several areas and particularly in the North West Province, the late planted crop has progressed better than expected, as a result of favourable weather conditions between March and May.
The improved harvest prospects have led to a decrease in domestic maize prices, which may also improve prospects for exports. This should benefit countries in the sub-region such as Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Zambia, which may experience a shortage of maize during the 1998/99 marketing season.
Harvesting of the 1998 cereal crop is well advanced. Total output is expected to be above average as a result of favourable weather conditions during much of the season. Initial indications are that cereal production should be about 100 000 tonnes, mostly maize. As a consequence, the overall food supply situation in the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to be satisfactory and most of the food import needs are expected to be met commercially.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in April/May estimated the 1998 cereal production at 707 000 tonnes, some 37 percent below the previous year's level. Excessive rainfall throughout the season, with extensive flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, resulted in crop losses and reduced yields in northern areas while the southern region experienced near-drought conditions which drastically reduced crop yields and total production.
The food supply situation for the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to be tight. Commercial cereal import is forecast at 364 000 tonnes (including 23 000 tonnes of rice and 41 000 tonnes of wheat), leaving an uncovered deficit of 296 000 tonnes, of which 45 000 tonnes are for emergency food assistance. With an extremely low import capacity at present, the country will need international assistance in the form of grants, concessional imports and targeted food aid to cover its food requirements. Food aid pledges amount so far to 3 000 tonnes, but no deliveries have been made.
Official estimates of the 1998 maize harvest has recently been revised upward to 1.47 million tonnes. This is still below last year's level and below average, but much better than anticipated at the beginning of the season, on account of erratic rainfall induced by the El Ni�o phenomenon. Total cereal output is expected to be well below 2 million tonnes, compared to over 2.7 million tonnes in 1997.
The national food supply situation in 1998/99 marketing year is expected to remain relatively tight. With a relatively small carryover stock available this year to help cushion the impact of the drop in output, large imports of maize and wheat are anticipated. Targeted food assistance will also be required to vulnerable groups in the southern traditionally dry areas, which are likely to have poor harvest. The Government reports that over 1 million people have registered so far for food assistance under a grain loan scheme.