HIGHLIGHTS
Cereal production has declined in several countries of southern Africa. The negative impact of El Niño has been less than earlier anticipated in the sub-region, with abundant rainfall leading to above-average cereal harvests in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland. However, prolonged dry spells adversely affected crops in Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia and, to a lesser extent, Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Production in these six countries is expected to be below the 1997 levels.
In Eastern Africa, food production prospects are unfavourable in Somalia, due to large reductions in plantings following dry weather and a series of negative factors associated with last year's floods. Another reduced harvest would aggravate the precarious food situation of the country. Elsewhere in the region, the food situation is grave in southern Sudan, affected by a poor 1997 harvest and intensified civil conflict. Latest estimates indicate that 1.2 million people are facing famine unless increased food aid is urgently distributed.
In Asia, the planting of paddy and coarse grain crops is favoured by recent rains, marking the arrival of the monsoon season. In India a normal monsoon is officially forecast, whilst in China a lower summer crop than last year is anticipated due to the threat of excessive rainfall and locusts. In Indonesia, unseasonably heavy showers boosted irrigation supplies for second-season crops across Java. The region's cereal output in 1998 is provisionally forecast to increase from last year's estimate of 968 million tonnes. However, the food supply situation remains tight in some countries, particularly in Indonesia and Korea DPR, where prolonged drought in 1997 severely reduced grain production. An FAO/WFP Mission, which has just completed an on-the-spot assessment of the crop and food supply situation in Korea DPR, has found that food supply difficulties have deepened and urged increased international food assistance. Food production in Iraq remains constrained by shortages of agricultural inputs.
El Niño continues to affect crops in parts of Latin America. In Central America and the Caribbean, abnormally dry weather and high temperatures associated with El Niño are delaying planting of the 1998/99 first season cereal crops which starts in May in most countries. In South America, a prolonged drought has severely affected crops in the north-east region of Brazil as well as in the highland valleys of Bolivia, while excessive rains and flooding are affecting crops in various other parts of the sub-region.
The 1998 grain harvest in the CIS is expected to be below last year's. Reduced winter crops are likely in the Ukraine and the Russian Federation, where winterkill has been more extensive than last year, spring plantings have been delayed and growing conditions are unfavourable in the North Caucasus.
Prospects for the 1998 cereal crops remain satisfactory in Europe. Production is expected to remain virtually unchanged from last year's good crop in the EC, but reduced outputs are forecast in some eastern European countries.
In the United States winter wheat growing conditions remain good after favourable weather, and aggregate wheat output is forecast at 64.1 million tonnes, another good crop, but 7 percent down from the bumper harvest in 1997. Conditions have also been good for maize planting and output is expected to increase, by a further 4 percent, from last year's already good harvest.
In Australia, the prospects for the winter wheat crop have improved following widespread rains in April and May, and production could be up on 1997. However, less land has been devoted to coarse grains and output of these crops is forecast to fall.