FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1998 -

SOMALIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Prospects for the 1998 main Gu cereal crops, now being harvested, are poor. The area planted to maize and sorghum is estimated to be one-third below the already reduced level of last year. This reflects insufficient rains since the beginning of the season, combined with a number of negative factors associated with last year’s floods. These factors varied from region to region but in general include and overlap with the off-season crop harvesting and the planting of the Gu season crops; excessive weeds, rodent and pest infestations at planting; destruction of canals and river embankments, loss of pumps, lack of quality seeds; lack of cash for hiring tractors due to loss of employment opportunities and household labour constraints. Insecurity in parts of the country also contributed to the reduction in the area planted. Yields are expected to be reduced following a prolonged dry spell from the second dekad of May to the first dekad of July, only temporarily interrupted by heavy rains and floods on 24 and 25 June in some areas, as well as because most of the sorghum consists of lower yielding "ratoons" from crops of the previous season.

Preliminary forecasts point to a cereal output half the previous year’s "Gu" production and just one-third of the pre-war average. Most affected regions are Lower and Middle Shebelle, Lower Juba, Hiraan and the Northwest, where plantings are extremely reduced.

While livestock is reported in general good conditions because of abundant pastures, the current ban on livestock and meat imports from Somalia by Saudi Arabia, one of the main markets for Somali’s exports, is severely affecting incomes of large numbers of pastoralist population. As livestock is the main source of foreign exchange, lower exports are resulting in the depreciation of the national currency and higher prices of imported cereals. Prices of sorghum and maize have also increased sharply in the past month in anticipation of a poor Gu harvest.

The reduced 1998 "Gu" production will be the fifth successive poor harvest. This, coupled with the disruption of all economic activities due to the prolonged civil conflict, is likely to aggravate the already precarious food situation of the majority of the population. Increased food assistance will be required until the next harvest in December to avoid a food crisis.