FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1998 -

SUDAN

CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 1998 main season cereal crop is in progress in central and northern growing areas. Early prospects are uncertain. Normal to above normal rains in May were followed by below precipitation in June and more rains are needed. Surveys on Desert Locust indicate favourable climatic conditions for breeding. Control operations against this and other pests are underway.

In the South, harvest of 1998 cereal crops has started in the furthest southern areas of Equatoria and Juba, while it is scheduled from September in Bahr-El-Ghazal and Upper Nile. Prospects are unfavourable. The area planted has been reduced by continuous population displacements coupled with late and insufficient rains. Shortages of seeds, despite large delivery programmes by international agencies, also contributed to the decline in plantings. Erratic rains in May and June have in general negatively affected crop development. The situation gives cause for serious concern in areas west of the Nile where severe dry weather has been experienced, particularly in Northern Bahr-El-Ghazal. More rains are needed in these areas to avoid further reductions in yield potential. By contrast, the high level of the White Nile, resulted in localized floods in eastern parts, along the Sobat corridor. This will be the second consecutive sharp reduced harvest. The 1997 cereal production was estimated to be 45 percent lower than in 1996. With the exhaustion of the coping mechanisms following 15 years of civil conflict, protracted food aid assistance will be required in southern states well into 1999.

The serious food supply situation as a result of the civil conflict and a poor harvest in 1997 has dramatically deteriorated in the past months. Acute food shortages and severe malnutrition rates are on the rise despite stepped food aid distributions. Insecurity and poor road conditions posed a serious constraint to access the affected population. In the worst affected states of Bahr-El-Ghazal, Eastern Equatoria, Western Upper Nile and Jonglei, the number of people facing famine conditions is estimated at 1.2 million. Food aid requirements for this population have been revised 50 percent upwards to about 10 000 tonnes of food per month, mostly cereals and pulses. There is an urgent need of more food aid pledges and support for logistics if large scale starvation is to be avoided.

Official estimates of the 1998 wheat harvest have been revised downwards to 525 000 tonnes, 18 percent down on the previous year’s good level, but still above average.