The forecast for global cereal stocks by the close of the seasons ending in 1999 has been raised to 330 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the previous report. This would be 1 million tonnes above the revised opening level, which has also been raised by over 7 million tonnes, mainly reflecting upward revisions to rice inventories in China and to coarse grain carryovers in the United States and the EC. Although cereal stocks in China and the CIS are forecast to decline sharply this season, the anticipated increase in 1998 grain production among the major exporting countries combined with the expected slower growth in global feed demand would offset these reductions. The largest increase is expected in maize and barley inventories while wheat carryovers would remain close to their opening levels and rice stocks are likely to decline to the lowest volume in three years. At the current forecast level, the ratio of global cereal carryovers to trend utilization in 1999/2000 would be 17.3 percent, close to that in the previous year and within the 17 to 18 percent range which the FAO Secretariat considers as the minimum necessary to safeguard world food security.
Crop year ending in: | |||
1997 | 1998 estim. | 1999 f'cast | |
(. . . . million tonnes . . . .) | |||
Wheat | 113.5 | 134.0 | 134.6 |
Coarse grains | 129.8 | 138.2 | 142.7 |
Rice (milled) | 56.1 | 56.6 | 52.6 |
TOTAL | 299.4 | 328.8 | 329.9 |
of which: | |||
Main exporters | 102.5 | 132.1 | 150.1 |
Others | 196.8 | 196.7 | 179.8 |
SOURCE: FAO
World stocks of wheat for crop years ending in 1999 are currently put
at about 135 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes down from the forecast in the
previous report. At this level, world wheat inventories would be virtually unchanged
from the previous year. Among the major exporting countries, wheat stocks are
forecast to increase significantly, by almost 7 million tonnes, to 47 million
tonnes. The increase in aggregate production of the major exporting countries
would more than offset the expected increase in their exports and domestic utilization,
resulting in a stock build-up. The largest expansion is expected in the EC,
where this years bumper crop, for the third year in succession, would
result in a further rise in stocks, to over 15 million tonnes, up 3 million
tonnes, or 24 percent, from their already high opening levels. The expansion
in wheat carryovers in the EC also represents a significant build-up in its
intervention stocks, for the third consecutive year. Wheat carryover stocks
are also forecast to increase in the United States despite this months
small downward revision following the Governments announcement in August
to increase food aid donations. At almost 23 million tonnes, inventories in
the United States would be some 3 million tonnes, or 16 percent, more than their
opening levels and the highest since 1991. Elsewhere, the expected sharp fall
in output in the Russian Federation could result in a contraction of their stocks
by as much as 3.5 million tonnes. Similarly, lower production could also result
in a draw-down in wheat stocks in some other major producing countries such
as China, India and the Ukraine, while in several other countries, especially
in North Africa and eastern Europe, this years larger crops are likely
to result in some build-up of inventories.
Global coarse grain inventories for crop years ending in 1999 are forecast
to rise for the third consecutive year to nearly 142 million tonnes, 3 million
tonnes less than the previous report but 4 million tonnes above their opening
levels. This months downward revisions mainly result from further reductions
in the forecast for stocks in China and the Russian Federation. In China, despite
this years satisfactory production prospects for coarse grains, maize
stocks which were already reduced substantially last year, are again anticipated
to decline, by some 3 million tonnes, due to further growth in domestic utilization.
The expected drop, by more than 3 million tonnes, in stocks held in the Russian
Federation, however, would be mainly on account of the anticipated 30 percent
contraction in its coarse grain production. By contrast, total coarse grain
stocks held by major exporters are seen to rise to 86 million tonnes, up 12
million tonnes from their opening level to their highest level in 6 years, mainly
in the United States and in the EC. In the United States, the worlds largest
maize producer, total coarse grain stocks could reach 53 million tonnes, up
11 million tonnes from their opening level and the highest since 1993, as a
result of this years expected above-average crop. In the EC, total coarse
grain stocks are likely to rise by nearly 1.5 million tonnes to over 27 million
tonnes, almost half of this being in intervention stocks. During the previous
season, total coarse grain intervention in the EC rose sharply from a 20-year
low level of less than 2 million tonnes at the start of the season to almost
11 million tonnes; of this total, over 7 million tonnes consisted of barley.
Despite the forecast increase in barley and rye exports during the 1998/99 marketing
season, the ECs intervention stocks may rise further given the favourable
crop prospects for this season.
Rice stocks for the marketing seasons ending in 1998 have been adjusted
upwards by about 3 million tonnes from the previous report to 56.5 million tonnes,
almost unchanged from their opening levels. The adjustment is largely the result
of an upward revision in the 1997 paddy output figures for China (Mainland)
and India. However, stocks are projected to decline in Indonesia, the Philippines
and Brazil where the El Niño-related weather problems affected the 1997
and/or 1998 paddy output. A reduction in stocks is also expected in Pakistan
due to the anticipated increase in exports. FAO is tentatively forecasting a
7 percent reduction in global rice stocks at the end of the marketing seasons
in 1999 to 52.6 million tonnes. The decline is mostly attributed to flood-related
problems that are expected to adversely affect output in several Asian countries,
including China (Mainland).