For 1998 crops, the area planted to cereals is estimated to have increased marginally, to 192 000 hectares, from an average of 195 000 hectares during the 1993-1997 period. With above normal yields, the cereal harvest is officially estimated at about 330 000 metric tonnes, some 10 percent above the average of the previous 5 years. The 1998 potato crop is expected to be in the region of 400 000 tonnes.
The country imported some 361 000 tonnes of cereals in the 1997/98 marketing year (July/June), of which 153 000 tonnes were food aid. In view of the good crop it is estimated that total cereal import requirements in the 1998/99 marketing year could decline to around 350 000 tonnes. Nevertheless, the actual volume of imports will hinge on the availability of credits and food aid.
With harvesting almost completed, the 1998 grain and pulse harvest is officially estimated at 910 000 tonnes, collected from an area of 569 000 hectares. However, official statistics focus predominantly on developments in the large farms and tend to underestimate developments in food production in less traditional areas. At this stage, FAO tentatively estimates the 1998 grain harvest to be at least 1 million tonnes, including some 900 000 tonnes of wheat, against 1.14 million tonnes harvested last year. The decline reflects reduced area sown, notably to barley, and somewhat lower yields.
In the 1998/99 marketing year, commercial cereal imports of nearly 520 000 tonnes are expected. GDP is recovering steadily, but unemployment and the minimum salaries and pensions remain low with about 80 percent of the household income being spent on food. WFP is targeting 215 000 of the IDPs. Net food requirements up to mid 1999 are 6 500 tons of wheat flour, 1 700 tons pulses, 1 400 tons oil and 770 tons of sugar.
The total 1998 wheat area (winter and spring) is estimated at 382 000 hectares, which is almost double the average for 1993-1997, reflecting a drive towards food self-sufficiency. The wheat and pulse area has been expanding, mainly at the expense of feed crops such as barley and rye. At 2.9 million hectares, the total cereal and pulse area was marginally down on last year�s level and close to the average of the last five years.
Official estimates suggest a total 1998 cereal production of 5.1 million tonnes, down from last year�s crop of 6.4 million tonnes mainly due to adverse weather. The wheat crop, estimated at 800 000 tonnes, is well above last year�s, reflecting the increased area. However, excessive moisture has reduced the proportion of the milling quality wheat. Commercial cereal imports for the 1998/99 marketing year (July/June) are expected at around 1 million tonnes, up from the 1997/98 level of about 650 000 tonnes.
The winter wheat area (for harvest in 1999) is reported to have increased this year by a further 10 percent.
The total area sown to grain for the 1998 harvest is officially estimated at 380 000 hectares, somewhat more than last year despite dry weather which hampered spring plantings, but 30 percent higher than the average for 1993-1997. Wheat production in 1998, estimated at 240 000 tonnes is also above average, but well below the bumper 1997 outturn of 292 000 tonnes. Growing conditions for maize, mainly produced in the west, have been satisfactory.
Wheat imports for the 1997/98 marketing year (July/June) reached 0.6 million tonnes, of which 164 000 tonnes were food aid. It is expected that imports in 1998/99 will remain at around this level. The country is self sufficient in maize.
The most vulnerable populations are the internally displaced, fleeing from fighting in the Abkhazia area. Repatriation efforts were hampered by renewed fighting in May 1998, which caused 30 000 people to flee their homes. WFP is providing emergency food assistance to some 200 000 internally displaced people.
The total area sown to cereals and pulses in 1998 is estimated at 29 percent below the average for 1993- 1997.
The drop in planted area was accompanied by a 34 percent fall in cereal crop yields in 1998, according to official harvest projections. The main reason for low yields is unusually dry, hot weather from mid-June to August, which stressed spring crops at the reproductive stages. Some 80 percent of the total crop was affected, with particularly unfavourable conditions in the north of the country. Low utilization of fertilizer and crop protection chemicals was also a contributory factor. Total 1998 cereal production is officially estimated at 7.4 million tonnes, 40 percent below 1997 and about 50 percent below the average of the previous five years.
Officially reported grain carryover stocks amount to some 1.9 million tonnes. Substantial stock draw down is expected during the 1998/99 marketing year (July/June). Stocks were accumulated in 1997/98 as a result of a weak export market. With the prospects of increased demand from neighbouring countries coupled with a significant reduction in domestic feed demand, some 1.3 million tonnes of cereal exports are expected in 1998/99.
The total area planted to cereals for 1998 winter and spring crops, is estimated at some 650 000 hectares, which is slightly higher than the average area for the previous 5 years but some 5 percent lower than last year�s plantings as a result of lower profitability. Farmers shifted part of the grain area into fruit and vegetable production. Potato area has risen for the fifth year in succession.
Cereal crop yields were moderately better than last year�s (the 1997 crop was damaged by drought in the north) but will not compensate for the drop in area. Some emerging crops were affected by unseasonal frosts and localised heavy showers. Fertilizer and pesticide imports reportedly fell short of requirements. Total cereal output is forecast at some 1.6 million tonnes of which 1.25 million tonnes are wheat, down on last year�s output of 1.73 million tonnes. Harvesting was delayed by acute shortages of machinery and fuel and by cold weather and heavy rainfall in southern areas.
Commercial imports for 1998/99 are tentatively forecast at around 70 000 tonnes, over half of which has already been delivered or contracted.
Total 1998 cereal production is estimated at 2.65 tonnes against 3.3 million tonnes last year. The maize crop of 1.4 million tonnes is eighteen percent lower than the 1997 outturn, although it remains well above the average for 1992-1997. Wheat production was estimated at around 1 million tonnes, down on last year�s and somewhat below average.
The main reasons for the drop in production this year relate to the low profitability of the crop and dry conditions in April 1998 which affected the planting of spring crops.
With ample domestic supplies, significant commercial imports of cereals are unlikely in the 1998/99 marketing year (July/June). Cereal exports for 1998/99 are tentatively forecast at 0.3 million tonnes.
The winter grains area for harvest in 1999 is forecast to increase to about 0.5 million hectares from an average of some 0.4 million hectares.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (30 November)
A recent FAO fact-finding mission to the Russian Federation found that drought and high temperatures from mid-June to August are the main causes of a sharp drop in domestic cereal production this year. The total cereal crop (including 1997/98 winter and spring crops) is provisionally forecast at around 50 million tonnes compared to 86.7 million tonnes in 1997 and a 1993-1997 average of 73 million tonnes. The decline also reflects underlying downward trends in planted area and yields. Large carryover stocks have helped to protect aggregate feed supplies from the production shock, and domestic feed demand is expected to continue its downward course.
The outlook for the cereal trade for the remainder of 1998/99 is uncertain. On current projections, despite the fall in output and assuming a sharp drawdown in carryover stocks, imports are expected to rise only marginally. The relatively high quality grading of this year�s crop points to only moderate increases in import demand for food-quality cereals. The recently announced food aid package from the United States is expected to ease the situation and limit the risk of increased costs and/or logistics bottlenecks which the sharp stock drawdown would have implied. A substantial decline in imported processed foods is anticipated.
Remote areas in the north and far-east face the risk of erratic food supplies and high prices. Local trade restrictions could aggravate a tight market. The most vulnerable socio-economic groups, pensioners, orphans, the unemployed and households dependent on public salaries, can expect a tough winter, especially in the large, depressed industrial cities.
Cereal production in 1998 is preliminarily estimated at 510 000 tonnes, some 13 percent below the 1997 crop, mainly reflecting a reduction in the total area planted to cereals in favour of cotton. Some 15 000 hectares were damaged or washed away by flooding in April. Yields of wheat, the main cereal crop, are estimated at 1.46 tonnes per hectare, compared to last year�s level of 1.6 tonnes due to adverse weather.
Despite the decline in domestic output, the total cereal import requirement for 1998/99 (July/June) is tentatively estimated at 360 000 tonnes, slightly lower than last year.
An appeal was launched in late July for a total of US$6.61 million, to support relief and rehabilitation activities. The security situation has deteriorated in October as a result of armed clashes between Government forces and opposition groups.
Official data suggest a major increase in cereal and pulse production in 1998, to 1.24 million tonnes, significantly higher than the 1997 crop, and 12 percent above the 1993-1997 average. The increase is due to an expansion in area and better yields.
In view of the good 1998 crop cereal imports are expected to fall to around 270 000 tonnes in 1998/99. The imports will be mainly composed of wheat and some 20 000 tonnes of rice.
Winter grains for harvest in 1999 are officially reported to have been sown on a total of 570 000 hectares, one third higher than the average area for 1993-1997. Recent imports of farm machinery allowed the timely completion of land preparation.
The 1998 grain and pulse harvest is officially estimated to have fallen to 28 million tonnes, some 20 percent less than the official estimate for the 1997 harvest mainly due to adverse weather conditions. The maize crop was particularly affected and output is currently forecast to have halved to less than 2 million tonnes. The 1998 output of wheat is preliminarily estimated at 15.3 million tonnes, nearly 4 million tonnes less than FAO's estimate for last year's harvest while the coarse grain harvest is forecast to decline by almost 5 million tonnes to 11 million tonnes. By contrast, the pulse crop, planted early in the spring remained stable at around 1.1 million tonnes.
Despite the reduced harvest, the country is expected to export some 2.3 million tonnes of cereals from its large stocks. This compares with recorded exports of nearly 2 million tonnes in the 1997/98 marketing year, of which 1.3 million tonnes were wheat, mostly to destinations outside the CIS.
The outlook for the 1998/99 winter crops is uncertain. Indications are that the area sown to winter crops has remained fairly stable at 7.5 million hectares of which about 6.8 million are under grain. Floods in the Western Trans Carpathian region in November have caused loss of life and damage to infrastructure, affecting some 300 000 people. The Government has requested assistance from the international community.
The 1998 grain and pulse harvest was sharply better than last year mainly in response to good weather and the reduction in the marginal areas sown to wheat. The total output in 1998 is estimated at 4.4 million tonnes compared to 3.8 million tonnes last year and includes 3.6 million tonnes of wheat, (1997: 3.1 million tonnes) 0.3 million tonnes of coarse grains, virtually unchanged from last year, and 0.5 million tonnes (1997: 0.4 million tonnes) of rice. Nevertheless, aggregate output remained well below the target of 5.1 million tonnes, of which 4.2 million tonnes of wheat. The shortfall will be covered by commercial imports.
The early outlook for the main winter grain harvest in 1999 is satisfactory. By 1 November, farmers had planted nearly half of the winter grain area target of 1.31 million hectares, virtually the same as that sown in the preceding year.
Persisting showers in late October and early November in the United Kingdom, France, the Benelux countries, and Germany, continued to slow the last of the 1998 summer crop harvesting and hampered winter grain planting. However, the abundant moisture is generally beneficial for the establishment of the winter crops. Further south, except for some showers in mid- November, dry weather prevails over Portugal and southern Spain, helping summer crop harvesting and fieldwork for winter grain planting. Although no firm area estimates are yet available, the Community�s aggregate winter cereal area is expected to decline, partly reflecting adverse planting conditions in several countries, but also due to the 5 percent increase in the land set-aside requirement for the 1999 harvest.
FAO�s estimate of aggregate 1998 cereal production in the EC has been raised further since the last report to a record 214 million tonnes, 2.6 percent up from the 1997 crop. Wheat crops have performed particularly well in 1998 as a result of favourable weather conditions and above-average to record crops were recorded in most countries. Aggregate wheat production is now forecast at 103.8 million tonnes, 9 percent up from 1997. With regard to the coarse grains, barley, rye and triticale production are also forecast to increase from the previous year but output of oats will be reduced. Although the summer maize harvest has yet to be completed in several parts, latest indications confirm a significant reduction after last years bumper crop. Maize output is now forecast at some 35 million tonnes, compared to well over 39 million tonnes estimated for 1997.
The estimate of the 1998 wheat output remains at 400 000 tonnes, indicating some 300 000 tonnes of imported wheat will be needed in 1998/99 to maintain food consumption levels of this staple equivalent to recent years. Pledges/deliveries of wheat as food aid in the current year already amount to some 27 000 tonnes, mostly from the USDA Commodity Credit Corp.
As of mid-October, Albania is reported to be hosting some 21 000 refugees from the civil unrest in the Kosovo Province of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. WFP and other food supply agencies plan to continue food distribution to refugees in November. WFP will continue to support a bakery project which provides bread on a daily basis to 5 700 refugees in the Durres area.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (3 November)
Information on crop production is lacking and/or unreliable. Cereal production for 1998 is probably in the region of 1 million tonnes. The cereal import requirement for 1998/99 is provisionally estimated at around 275 000 tonnes. The Commodity Credit Corp (CCC) has reportedly purchased 4 420 tonnes of U.S. hard red winter wheat for donation to Bosnia-Herzegovina with shipment due in November.
The 1998 wheat output is estimated at 3.3 million tonnes, about 7 percent down from last year�s crop but about the average of the past five years. The latest estimate of coarse grains production is 2.2 million tonnes, also down somewhat from the previous year but about average.
Regarding the 1999 season, the autumn wheat sowing was severely hampered by heavy rains throughout most of October. It is estimated that just some 800 000 hectares have been sown to winter wheat, well down from the previous year�s 1.2 million hectares. Furthermore, some 40 percent of the area has been sown after the optimum date (end-October) which is likely to greatly affect the yield potential. The potential of the 1999 grain crops is also threatened by farmers� lack of funds for fertilizers and other vital inputs. Oversupply of grain and poor prices on the domestic market after this year�s harvest led to difficulties for farmers (and reluctance) to sell their crops immediately, and they still have funds tied up in stored produce. However, the Agriculture Ministry has reportedly earmarked 500 000 tonnes of wheat from this year's surplus for export which could ease the pressure on the local market.
The 1998 cereal harvest is estimated at about 3.3 million tonnes, some 2 percent up from 1997 and above average. Wheat production is estimated to have risen to just over 1 million tonnes, and the quality is reported to be generally good. A small surplus is available which will likely be exported to neighbouring countries.
With regard to the 1999 harvest, the area sown to winter grains is expected to increase slightly. A planned reduction in wheat area will be more than offset by similarly planned increases for other grains, in particular barley and rye, and rapeseed. Weather conditions have been generally satisfactory to date but torrential rains along the Adriatic coast in late October caused some localized damage to infrastructure and losses of crops and livestock.
Final official estimates put the 1998 cereal harvest at about 6.7 million tonnes, just slightly below the previous year�s output. Of the total, wheat is expected to account for almost 4 million tonnes. Conditions are reported to be generally favourable for the 1999 winter grain crop.
The 1998 grain harvest is forecast at nearly 700 000 tonnes, close to last year's level. Although the area sown to grains increased by 5 percent excessive rains in August reduced average yields. The cereal import requirement in 1998/99 is likely to be limited to small quantities of wheat and rye flour for human consumption and some feedgrains. Production in the livestock industry has been adversely affected by market disruption in the Russian Federation.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (3 November)
Output of the 1998 cereal harvest is estimated at some 600 000 tonnes, virtually unchanged from the previous year�s level.
High precipitation in October affected the end of the 1998 coarse grain harvest and led to delays in winter cereal planting. Latest official estimates put the 1998 cereal harvest at some 13 million tonnes, about 9 percent down from last year�s bumper crop but still above the average of the past five years. Of the total, wheat is estimated to account for 5 million tonnes (1997: 5.3 million tonnes), while coarse grain output is put at 8 million tonnes (1997: 8.9 million tonnes).
Early prospects for the winter grain crops for harvest in 1999 are somewhat uncertain, partly due to the adverse weather for planting in October, and partly due to the extent of influence that this year�s continuing domestic market surpluses may have on farmers planting intentions. However, it is likely that the winter grain area will be considerably reduced from the previous year�s 1.2 million hectares.
The aggregate area sown to grains (cereals and pulses) remained stable at nearly 0.5 million hectares. Excessive rains this summer adversely affected yield and the aggregate output is forecast at 1 million tonnes, about 4 percent less than last year. Nevertheless, cereal imports in 1998/99 are expected to remain low as the export market for livestock products in the Russian Federation contracts.
The 1998 grain harvest is officially forecast to reach 3 million tonnes, only marginally less than last year's 3.05 million tonnes. Following this good harvest, the country has an exportable surplus of food quality wheat and rye amounting to about 100 000 tonnes.
Latest official estimates put 1998 cereal production at about 27 million tonnes, nearly 6 percent up from 1997. Wheat output is estimated at 9.5 million tonnes (1997: 8.2 million tonnes), while the coarse grain crop is expected to reach 17.5 million tonnes (1997: 17.2 million tonnes).
Prospects for the winter grain crops for harvest in 1999 are reported to be generally satisfactory. Light to moderate rain and near to above-normal temperatures throughout late October has ensured favourable conditions for winter grain establishment and early growth.
The 1998 wheat crop is estimated at 5.7 million tonnes, nearly 1.4 million tonnes less than the output in 1997. Plantings were reduced by adverse weather last autumn and yields were affected by drought during the summer. The potential of the summer maize crop was also severely limited by the dry summer weather, and production is estimated at about 8 million tonnes compared to over 12.7 million tonnes in the previous year.
Prospects for the winter cereal crop being planted for harvest in 1999 are somewhat unfavourable. Although mostly dry weather in late October greatly improved conditions for the winter wheat planting, after earlier wetness, the pace of fieldwork remains well behind normal and the optimum planting period has already passed. In addition, the agricultural sector continues to be affected by lack of funds and substandard equipment, and the winter grain area is expected to fall again.
Latest official reports put the aggregate 1998 cereal output at some 3.5 million tones, about 300 000 tonnes below the estimate for 1997 but still about average. Conditions are reported to be generally favourable for the winter grain crop.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (3 November)
The 1998 wheat crop is now estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, somewhat less than earlier expectations and virtually unchanged from the 1997 production. The maize harvest has yet to be completed, after delays caused by wet weather in October. Although the maize area remained unchanged from the 1997, yields are expected to fall significantly as a result of high temperatures and low rainfall from mid-July to mid- August. Latest forecasts point to an output of 5.3 million tonnes compared to 6.9 million tonnes in 1997.
Prospects for the winter grain crops for the 1999 harvest are somewhat unfavourable. Wet weather in October hampered fieldwork, and by the end of the month, which is the end of the normal and optimum period for sowing, the area planted was still reported to be well down on the planned 850 000 hectares. The final outcome will depend critically on the weather in early November, which if favourable, could allow further planting. However, with a much reduced area sown in the optimal period, and uncertainty over the amount of late planting still possible, it is likely that the 1999 winter wheat crop will be reduced.
In Kosovo Province, since the military withdrawal on 27 October, thousands of displaced have gone back to their villages. After much of the 1998 harvest was left in the field, and stored crops have been destroyed, the need for relief aid remains high. In some areas returned villagers are reported to be preparing to plant the winter crop of wheat. However, as the optimal planting period has been missed, and a large amount of farming equipment (from hand tools to tractors) has been looted or destroyed, the wheat crop in 1999 is likely to be well down from the normal output. Thus, the Province is expected to continue also into the next season to have an abnormally high wheat deficit.