FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 11/98 - YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND

YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (3 November)

The 1998 wheat crop is now estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, somewhat less than earlier expectations and virtually unchanged from the 1997 production. The maize harvest has yet to be completed, after delays caused by wet weather in October. Although the maize area remained unchanged from the 1997, yields are expected to fall significantly as a result of high temperatures and low rainfall from mid-July to mid- August. Latest forecasts point to an output of 5.3 million tonnes compared to 6.9 million tonnes in 1997.

Prospects for the winter grain crops for the 1999 harvest are somewhat unfavourable. Wet weather in October hampered fieldwork, and by the end of the month, which is the end of the normal and optimum period for sowing, the area planted was still reported to be well down on the planned 850 000 hectares. The final outcome will depend critically on the weather in early November, which if favourable, could allow further planting. However, with a much reduced area sown in the optimal period, and uncertainty over the amount of late planting still possible, it is likely that the 1999 winter wheat crop will be reduced.

In Kosovo Province, since the military withdrawal on 27 October, thousands of displaced have gone back to their villages. After much of the 1998 harvest was left in the field, and stored crops have been destroyed, the need for relief aid remains high. In some areas returned villagers are reported to be preparing to plant the winter crop of wheat. However, as the optimal planting period has been missed, and a large amount of farming equipment (from hand tools to tractors) has been looted or destroyed, the wheat crop in 1999 is likely to be well down from the normal output. Thus, the Province is expected to continue also into the next season to have an abnormally high wheat deficit.

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