FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1998 -

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MADAGASCAR


Area: 582 000 sq.km
Climate: Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rains in October-March; tropical cyclones
Population: 14.38 million (1998 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 250 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres
Major foodcrops: Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit
Marketing year: April/March; Lean season: February/March
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 60 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Moderate to heavy rains in August and September over the eastern coast were followed by light rainfall in October that favoured the transplanting of the main 1999 paddy crop.

Reflecting lower plantings, paddy production in 1998 is estimated to have decreased by 12 percent to 2.2 million tonnes, the lowest level in recent years. In contrast, production of maize and sorghum increased by some five percent to the average level of 163 000 tonnes. The overall food supply situation in the country in the 1998/99 marketing year is expected to remain relatively stable, including the drought-prone south where some locust damage to crops and pastures has been reported.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal Production 7 2 476 152 2 635
Normal Imports 48 53 10 111
of which: Structural food aid 13 11 10 34
1998/99 Domestic Availability 11 1 553 162 1 726
1998 Production (rice in paddy terms) 11 2 200 162 2 373
1998 Production (rice in milled terms) 11 1 496 162 1 669
Possible stock drawdown - 57 - 57
1998/99 Utilization 81 1 683 167 1 931
Food Use 80 1 679 131 1 890
of which: local purchase requirement - - 4 4
Non-food use 1 4 32 37
Exports or Re-exports - - - -
Possible stock build up - - 4 4
1998/99 Import Requirement 70 130 5 205
Anticipated commercial imports 60 110 5 175
Food aid needs 10 20 - 30
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges 5 7 7 19
of which: Delivered 4 2 2 8
Donor-financed purchases - - 4 4
of which: for local use - - 4 4
for export - - - -
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year) 6 117 9 132
Indexes



1998 production as % of normal:


90
1998/99 import requirement as % of normal:


185
1998/99 food aid requirement as % of normal:


88

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