Harvesting of the 1999 A season crops has been completed and a reduced output is estimated, reflecting late and insufficient rains during the growing season. An FAO/WFP/Government of Burundi crop assessment in the second half of December estimated food production from the season at 1.1 million tonnes, 3 percent below the 1998 A season output and 23 percent below the pre-crisis average. Output of beans, estimated at 75 000 tonnes, is 14 percent below last year, while cereals declined 5 percent to 85 000 tonnes. Production of roots and tubers and bananas and plantains decreased by 2 percent and 3 percent respectively.
Violent incidents and insecurity persist in several regions of the country. Approximately 550 000 people are still living in displacement camps. Food assistance for some 300 000 most vulnerable people for 1999 is estimated at 50 000 tonnes of food.
The suspension of the 1996 trade embargo in December 1998 is expected to increase economic and trade activities in the country.
A satisfactory 1998 main season cereal crop is estimated, as a result of abundant and well distributed rains during the growing season. However, due to dry weather in November and December in the coastal areas, where the sorghum crop is about to be harvested, the outlook is uncertain.
While the overall food supply situation has improved with the arrival of the new harvest on the market, the situation continues to be difficult for the families displaced by the conflict with neighbouring Ethiopia. A recent Government assessment indicates that during 1999, some 450 000 people will need food assistance, including 100 000 internally displaced persons and 60 000 expelled from Ethiopia, hosting families of returnees/displaced as well as those affected by the economic disruption caused by the war. The Government has appealed for international food aid to assist this population.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in late 1998 estimated cereal and pulse production from the 1998 Meher season at 11.69 million tonnes, 36 percent up on last year but slightly less than the record crop of 1996. The increase is due to favourable rains, increased use of fertilizer and improved seeds, and a low incidence of pests and diseases.
The improved availability of cereals has resulted in falling grain prices in most markets. Only minimal imports, mainly rice, will be necessary in 1999. Given this favourable outturn, there should be scope for a significant build-up of stocks at all levels. Export possibilities to neighbouring countries will be restricted because of weak import demand and the closed border with Eritrea.
Despite the excellent harvest, some 2 million people will require an estimated 180 000 tonnes of food aid, excluding those from pastoral areas and some 395 000 internally displaced persons affected by the on-going conflict with neighbouring Eritrea. Due to ample domestic supplies, imported food aid is not needed this year. However, donors are strongly urged to support local purchases to provide some strength to the market.
In pastoral southern and eastern parts, dry weather has resulted in a deterioration of pastures and the condition of animals. Distribution of emergency water is underway in some areas. The Government is currently undertaking an assessment of the situation.
Prospects for the "short rains" maize and beans crops, being harvested, are unfavourable. Late and insufficient rains resulted in reductions in plantings and negatively affected yields. Production forecast have been revised downwards from 400 000 tonnes to 100 000 tonnes. Although the short rains maize accounts for only 15 percent of the national production, it is the main crop in Eastern and parts of Central Province. Despite an overall satisfactory food supply, severe food shortages are already being reported, particularly from the marginal lower parts of Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Maragua Thika, and Nyeri districts. The dry weather has also resulted in the deterioration of pastures and shortage of water supplies for livestock. Food aid is needed for the affected population.
The output of the 1998 main "long rains" cereal crop was significantly higher than in 1997, mainly reflecting abundant and well distributed rains in the main producing area of the Rift Valley. Maize, the main staple, has been estimated at an above average level of 2.34 million tonnes. Assuming a reduced "short rains" crop of 100 000 tonnes, the aggregate 1998/99 maize production is projected at 2.44 million tonnes. At this level, import requirements for marketing year 1998/99 (October/September) are estimated at 430 000 tonnes, substantially below the previous year when imports reached very high levels.
Reflecting the good "long rains" maize crop and large carryover stocks from last year, prices have declined sharply in recent months to a level of around US$80 per tonne. In order to support prices the Government has announced the buying of 270 000 tonnes of maize for food aid distribution to the population affected by a poor "short rains" harvest and building up its Strategic Reserves.
Harvest of the 1999 A season crop is complete and preliminary estimates indicate a 15 percent decline compared to last year. Late and poorly distributed rains resulted in a reduction in planting and yields. Most affected crops are beans and cereals, while roots and tubers were less affected by the dry weather.
In the northwestern prefectures, affected by persistent civil strife, an improvement in the security conditions in recent months has led to a decline in the number of displaced persons. By early January, official estimates indicated 505 000 displaced persons in Gisenyi and Ruhengeri Prefectures. International food assistance is currently being provided to the most affected people.
By all indications, the 1998/99 harvest of the secondary "Deyr" cereal crops, now underway, is poor. Late and below- average rains from October to December resulted in reduced plantings and yields. Insufficient rainfall has also caused the deterioration of pastures and water supplies for livestock and humans. Although "Deyr" crops normally account for only 20 percent of annual cereal production, this �Deyr� crop follows on from the failure of the 1998 main "Gu" cereal crop, which was only one-quarter of the level pre-war.
The already difficult food supply situation is anticipated to deteriorate in the coming months, with an estimated 1 million people at risk of food shortages and 400 000 most at risk. Prices of cereals have increased sharply in recent months and are well beyond the reach of the majority of the population. Coping mechanisms are becoming exhausted after five consecutive reduced harvests and the ban of livestock imports from Somalia by Saudi Arabia. Population movements, particularly from the worst affected Bay and Bakol regions, in search of food and water, are on the increase. The situation has been aggravated by renewed fighting in many areas. Current estimates indicate that some 30 000 people have been displaced by hunger and insecurity.
Following the sharply reduced 1998 "Gu" crop, FAO projected the aggregate cereal deficit at 340 000 tonnes. This estimate was based on an optimistic assumption of normal rains during the "Deyr" season. However, with the final production estimates for the Northwest region and a forecast "Deyr" crop of only 75 000 tonnes, the cereal deficit has been revised up to 400 000 tonnes. Of this, some 245 000 tonnes are projected to be met by commercial imports, leaving an overall food aid requirement of 155 000 tonnes. However, insecurity in many areas of the country prevents access to needy people. Emergency food aid requirements for the 400 000 most vulnerable people in rural areas of southern Somalia (or some 7 percent of the population) are estimated at 11 000 tonnes for the period January-March.
With six consecutive reduced harvests, there is also urgent need for seeds for planting in the next season from April. It is estimated that approximately 1 500 tonnes of sorghum seed would be required for some 75 000 most vulnerable households.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in November/December 1998, estimated record coarse grain production following adequate and well- distributed rains, timely availability of agricultural inputs and minimal damage by pests and diseases. Millet production is estimated at 1 million tonnes, almost twice the previous year's level, and sorghum at 4.5 million tonnes, 60 percent above the below average crop of 1997. By contrast, prospects for the 1999 wheat crop, to be harvested in March, are unfavourable reflecting a decline in the area planted.
Sorghum market prices have fallen below production costs in main producing areas, due to large cereal supplies. This may depress area planted next year. Sorghum exports are no longer banned and export availabilities are estimated at 640 000 tonnes.
Despite the satisfactory food supply situation in the north, some 2.36 million people in the south will need emergency food assistance due to on-going civil conflict. In the north, vulnerable groups including internally displaced people and needy communities in specific localities will need food aid especially during the lean period (April-October) in 1999. Emergency food aid needs of war-affected and food-deficit regions are in the order of 173 000 tonnes, including 130 000 tonnes of cereals. In view of the ample domestic availability, local purchases for food aid are highly recommended in order to support markets.
The serious nutritional situation in southern Sudan, particularly in Bahr El-Ghazal, where famine conditions were experienced last year, has improved in the past months with increased food aid distributions.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in early January 1999 found that as a result of reduced rainfall, planted area and yields fell sharply and overall Vuli maize production will be significantly below normal. The worst affected regions were the Coast and the lowlands of Arusha, Morogoro and Kilimanjaro where rainfall was less than 25 percent of normal. In addition, domestic maize supplies for the 1998/99 marketing year (June/May) were reduced by higher than anticipated storage losses, due to a combination of ineffective pesticide use, generally poor storage facilities and high levels of grain borer infestation. Supplies may also have been reduced by increased unofficial cross border trade in maize to Zambia, in response to higher prices. In addition to supply constraints, there was increased demand for maize this year in regions like Dodoma and Singida, where the principal sorghum and millet crops failed almost totally last year. The sudden rise in maize prices in late October/early November over a relatively short period, suggests that in addition to developing shortages, which would have had a more gradual impact on price, there was a considerable degree of hoarding.
Although the availability and price of maize have given cause for concern, there is satisfactory supply of food, other than sorghum and millet, in the main producing areas at reasonable prices. This is due to the favourable production of rice, banana and tuber crops last main season. Rice, however, still remains beyond the reach of poorer sectors of the population who have limited purchasing power, whilst crops like cassava and banana are only available in main producing areas as they are not easily transported to food deficit areas over long distances.
The Mission estimated the 1999 Vuli maize production at 228 000 tonnes, some 60 percent lower than last year and 40 percent below the long term average. For the remaining four months of the current marketing year, the Mission estimated that the country has an import requirement of 561 000 tonnes of maize , of which already contracted commercial imports amount to 75 000 tonnes and food aid in the pipeline to 3 000 tonnes. This leaves the country with an uncovered import requirement of 483 000 tonnes, of which 20 000 will be requested as further food assistance through WFP. In the meantime the Government has released 10 000 tonnes through the SGR for relief assistance. Although the aggregate deficit in maize remains sizeable, it is recognized that considerable substitution by other food crops will reduce overall requirements for maize. The commercial sector may also increase the volume of imports, in view of the lifting of the import duty on maize and providing domestic prices in relation to international prices remain high.
The shortfall in current Vuli production and successive poor harvests in parts of the country have significantly increased the number of people that are vulnerable to food shortages, now estimated at 1 million.
Harvesting of the 1998 second season crop is complete. Maize production is estimated to be about 57 percent of normal levels due to insufficient rains. By contrast, production of other important foodcrops such as bananas and roots and tubers, more resistant to dry conditions, is estimated to be normal.
The areas most affected by a reduced harvest are the eastern and central regions, and the Lake Victoria Basin. Severe food shortages are reported in Kifamba sub-county of Rakai District following a succession of poor crops. In the northern districts of Gulu and Kitgum, affected by civil strife, renewed fighting has resulted in a deterioration of the security conditions. International food assistance continues to be provided to some 400 000 displaced persons in these areas.
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