SOUTHERN AFRICA
The 1998/99 rainy season has been favourable for crops so far, with widespread rain over most regions since October. However, planted area is expected to be considerably reduced this year as a result of insecurity in many areas following renewed civil strife since December. Intense fighting is reported in major cereal growing areas of the centre (Bie and Huambo) extending to the north and east. As a consequence, many farmers have abandoned land to join the rapidly increasing number of displaced people or refugees to neighbouring countries.
The food supply outlook in the country has become increasingly bleak. The number of internally displaced in need of urgent assistance is now estimated at over 500 000 people, largely concentrated in the provinces of Huambo, Bie, Malanje, Huila and Uige. Given the serious deterioration in security conditions necessitating delivery of food and other supplies by air, the cost of transport, logistic and insurance are expected to be drastically higher. There is therefore, an urgent need to ensure that adequate humanitarian assistance is provided to the affected population, including the strengthening of the resource capacity of humanitarian institutions. Food aid pledges at the end of January amounted to about 125 000 tonnes, of which 115 000 tonnes have been delivered so far.
The rainy season has so far been favourable to crops. However, more rains are needed. Pastures have recovered substantially, which should improve the quality of livestock.
The national food supply situation is generally satisfactory as domestic cereal availability and planned imports should adequately cover current needs.
Rainfall has been abundant and widespread since October and cumulative levels at the end of January range from normal to above normal. Crops are reported in good condition. Maize in the mountains and foothills is at flowering stage while it is at vegetative stages in the lowlands.
The national food supply situation is generally stable. Cereal import requirements of some 188 000 tonnes are expected to be met largely through commercial channels. The Government, through its Drought Relief Programme of the Disaster Management Authority, plans to provide assistance to 400 000 beneficiaries, with donor assistance.
Rainfall has been favourable so far for the 1998/99 crops. Abundant rains have been received since October, starting along the eastern coast and expanding north-eastward in November, gradually covering most crop growing areas. Thunderstorms in the Mozambique Channel, which developed into Tropical Storm Alda in mid-January, missed southern Madagascar but brought abundant rains to many areas, particularly the Southwest. This also provided welcome relief to many southern areas where planting had been delayed for lack of rains. Overall, crops are reported in good vegetative condition in most growing areas.
The overall food supply situation in the country in the 1998/99 marketing year remains relatively stable. In the drought-prone south, markets are supplied with rice from other parts of the country. Relief assistance continues to be provided to vulnerable population groups.
Widespread rainfall has continued over the southern and central parts of the country since November, providing favourable conditions for crop development. In the north, planting rains were received only in January in some areas. As a result, the outcome of harvest will depend largely on the continuation of good rains during the next two to three months.
Following a good harvest in 1998/99, the food supply situation has improved significantly. Markets are supplied by local maize but also by imports primarily from Zimbabwe and South Africa. Government assistance continues to be provided to vulnerable populations groups, victims of drought or floods.
Conditions have so far been generally favourable for crop development in the south and the centre where rainfall has been abundant since October. The wet conditions resulted in flooding in several areas, especially in Gaza and Sofala provinces, causing localized damage to crops in low lying areas. However, dry conditions prevailed until December in northern and north-eastern provinces (Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa Provinces), where the season normally starts later than the rest of the country. In late January, several areas in the north were still recording less than 50 percent of their normal rainfall. In these cereal surplus producing areas, prospects for a good 1999 harvest are still favourable, provided sustained and widespread rains are received in the next few weeks.
The national food security situation for the 1998/99 marketing year is generally satisfactory. As a result of a steady increase in food production during the past several years, the country is now self-sufficient in maize, with exportable surpluses available for deficit countries in the sub-region. The import requirement in rice and wheat, estimated at 67 000 tonnes and 145 000 tonnes, respectively, will be met through private channels.
The 19998/99 growing season started in late November and early December with widespread rains over the north-eastern part of the country, gradually moving south and other parts of the country. Planting continues in some areas. Additional rainfall is needed for the remainder of the season for crops to achieve normal development.
The national food supply situation in the current marketing year continues to be tight as a result of the drought-reduced 1998 cereal harvest of 59 000 tonnes. As this was only one- third of the previous year's output, the cereal import requirement was estimated at 155 000 tonnes for 1998/99 (May/April), mostly through commercial channels.
Heavy rains through January raised concerns that yields in some areas might be reduced due to water-logging. Preliminary official estimates of plantings indicate a reduction of area sown to maize to 2.8 million hectares from 3.0 million hectares last year, the lowest level in decades. Part of the explanation appears to be that farmers are switching to more lucrative crops such as sunflowers that showed a 48 percent increase in plantings to 0.8 million hectares. Some producers also shifted to planting groundnuts or left fields fallow.
The official estimate of the 1998/99 winter wheat crop currently stands at 1.47 million tonnes, 36 percent below the 1997/98 level and below average, a response to low international and domestic prices. Aggregate cereal output in 1998 stands at 9.6 million tonnes, some 20 percent lower than the previous year's above-average crop. Despite the decrease in production, the total cereal availability has enabled the country to have an exportable surplus due to large carryover stocks.
Conditions for crops, now at the vegetative stage, have been favourable so far. The 1998/99 growing season started early with light to moderate rains falling over most of the country in October. Rainfall in November and December was abundant and cumulative levels by January ranged from normal to above normal in most areas.
The food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory until the end of the 1998/99 marketing year in April, due to adequate domestic availability of cereals and planned commercial imports, mainly wheat and rice.
Abundant rains in December and January, particularly in the central part of the country, enabled farmers to put more land into cultivation. Planting is now completed in most part of the country. Initial indications are that the area under coarse grains will be much higher than last year's level. After the drought and flood reduced harvest of 1997/98, early prospects for the 1998/99 cereal crops are favourable.
The food supply situation for the current marketing year continues to be tight. To meet its domestic food shortfall, the country has been importing maize, largely from countries in the sub-region, including Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Relief food assistance continues to be needed for vulnerable groups and those affected by drought. Food aid pledges by donors amount to 25 500 tonnes, of which 12 000 tonnes have been delivered.
Rainfall has been abundant and widespread since October, becoming heavy in many areas in December and part of January, raising cumulative rainfall to over 100 percent of normal levels in most areas. This has raised concerns that crops in low-lying areas could suffer yield losses from water-logging and leaching of fertilizers. Crop conditions are reported to be generally good in most areas and harvest prospects are favourable so far.
The national food supply situation is generally stable. Available supply of cereals and planned imports are expected to cover needs until the beginning of the new harvest in April. Government relief assistance continues to be provided to vulnerable groups in food deficit regions.
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