FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages No.1, February 1999

SOUTH AMERICA

ARGENTINA (2 February)

Harvesting of the 1998/99 wheat crop has been completed and output collected is officially estimated at a below-average 10.6 million tonnes, about 28 percent down from last year�s 14.8 million tonnes. This mainly reflects the extremely dry weather in the key growing areas that has prevailed throughout the growing season with adverse consequence on yields. By contrast, normal rains since mid-January have improved growing conditions for the recently planted maize and sorghum crops, despite the frequent interruptions in sowing due to the lack of rain which contributed to a reduction of 13.3 percent in maize plantings from last year�s record 3.7 million hectares. The area planted to sorghum declined only slightly from last year�s near record level. Planting of the paddy crop, mostly in the north-eastern parts of the country, has also been completed and the area planted is officially estimated at an above-average 268 500 hectares.

BOLIVIA (22 February)

Normal weather conditions resumed from mid-January in the highlands and mountain valleys, as well as in the main producing eastern department of Santa Cruz and south-eastern parts of the country, benefiting the development of the 1999 first season cereal crops to be harvested from March. Harvesting of the important potato crop has already started. A recovery is expected for all cereals from the 1997/98 poor outputs, when the crops were severely affected by El Ni�o adverse weather.

BRAZIL (22 February)

Harvesting of the 1998 wheat crop has been recently completed and output is provisionally estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, 9 percent below last year�s average crop. This is largely the result of dry weather conditions at planting in the main growing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul and untimely rains at harvesting which contributed to lower than expected yields. The recent rains in these states, where the bulk of the maize crop is grown, have benefited, by contrast, the development of the 1999 crop which had been affected by dry weather at planting in November. Harvesting has only started and production is expected to increase from last year when the crops were severely affected, particularly in the north- east, by El Ni�o-related extremely dry weather. Early forecasts indicate a maize output of about 33.3 million tonnes compared to last year�s low 30 million tonnes. Harvesting of the paddy crop has also only started and output is provisionally forecast to increase from last year�s El Ni�o affected crop of 8.5 million tonnes to 10.6 million tonnes. Farmers were prompted to increase plantings due to attractive prices caused by last year�s scarce supplies.

CHILE (22 February)

Harvesting of the 1998/99 wheat crop is underway and output is anticipated to decrease to a below-average 1.2 million tonnes from the 1.7 million tonnes harvested in 1997/98. This is the result of the severe drought, one of the most serious in years, which affected the country in 1998. Harvesting of the 1999 maize crop is due to start from March and production is officially forecast to decline by 30 percent from last year�s average 940 000 tonnes. Paddy production is also anticipated to be lower than average.

COLOMBIA (22 February)

Harvesting of the 1998/99 second season coarse grain crops is advanced, particularly maize, and coarse grain output for the whole year is expected to recover significantly from 1997/98 El Ni�o affected crops. Production of maize, the main cereal, is forecast to be about an average 1.15 million tonnes, which compares to 1997/98 low 800 000 tonnes. Paddy output is estimated at an average1.6 million tonnes compared to the previous year�s affected crop of 1.5 million tonnes. In late January, an earthquake in the southwestern parts of the country inflicted damage to the important coffee industry infrastructure. No damage has been so far reported to the crops. Damage to infrastructure is presently being repaired by the Government to prevent eventual delays in exports.

Land is being prepared for planting of the 1999/00 first season cereal crops to be started from April.

ECUADOR (22 February)

Planting of the 1999 first season cereal crops is underway. Dry weather conditions have prevailed since December in the coastal areas, but with no effect so far on maize and paddy plantings. In the highlands, light to moderate rains are reported particularly in the southern parts favouring cereal and potato crops currently being planted. In the east, where yellow maize is grown virtually throughout the year and planting of paddy has only started, normal weather conditions are reported. Cereal outputs, as well as other food and export crops, are expected to recover from 1998 El Ni�o severely affected crops.

GUYANA (22 February)

Normal rains continue benefiting the development of the important paddy crop, as well as that of roots and fruits and other minor food crops. An important recovery is expected from last year when the crops were severely affected by El Ni�o induced drought.

PARAGUAY (22 February)

Heavy rains at the end of the harvesting season seriously affected the 1998 wheat crop. Low yields were obtained and output collected was a poor 250 000 tonnes which compares to an earlier estimate of some 400 000 tonnes and the previous year�s average production of a similar 400 000 tonnes. Harvesting of the 1999 maize crop has only started and an average output is expected.

PERU (22 February)

Normal weather conditions have resumed since mid-January over most of the country, following weeks of dry weather particularly in the southern parts of the country. The rains have thus contributed increase water reservoir levels that were considered low. Harvesting of the 1998 wheat crop has been completed and output is provisionally estimated at an above-average 150 000 tonnes, a recovery from the previous year�s 124 000 tonnes. Maize, both white and yellow, is grown all year around. Output collected in 1998, only for the period January/November, is officially estimated at 890 000 tonnes, which compares to the last 5-year average of 780 000 tonnes. Paddy output was an above-average one million tonnes.

Planting of the 1999 wheat crop has been completed for harvesting from May, while harvesting of the bulk of the 1999 yellow maize is underway and that of white is due to start from April.

SURINAME (22 February)

Normal rains continue benefiting the 1999 paddy crop which is due for harvesting principally from April. A significant recovery is expected from 1998 when the crop was severely affected by El Ni�o induced drought. Output is officially forecast at 124 000 tonnes, compared to the low 81 000 tonnes harvested the year before, a significant increase for this important crop which constitutes the main foreign exchange earner in the country. A recovery in output is also anticipated for other cash crops such as bananas, and minor food crops in general.

URUGUAY (22 February)

Harvesting of the 1998/99 wheat crop has been completed and an average output of some 450 000 tonnes have been gathered while that of the recently planted coarse grain crop is about to start. Recent rains have improved growing conditions and average to above-average outputs are provisionally forecast. Harvesting of the important paddy crop is due to start from March and a near-record output is expected provided normal conditions persist. Prompted by attractive export prices, farmers increased their plantings from last year�s 163 000 hectares to some 190 000 hectares.

VENEZUELA (22 February)

Harvesting of the 1998 second season cereal crops was completed in December and an average 1 million tonnes output of maize has been collected. Sorghum production declined for the third consecutive year, largely the result of strong import competition. Paddy production also declined from 792 000 tonnes in the previous year to some 673 000 tonnes, most likely reflecting decreasing exports to neighbouring countries.


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