FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 1999 SUDAN 42

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SUDAN

Area:
2.4 million sq.km
Climate:
From north to south, arid, semi-arid and tropical wet-dry. Rainy season May-October
Population:
29.53 million (1998 estimate); GNP per caput: n.a.
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; cereal production mainly in eastern and central areas.
Logistics:
Roads, railway and river transport inadequate
Major foodcrops:
Sorghum, millet, wheat, roots and tubers, oils
Marketing year:
November/October; Lean season: September-October
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
51 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in November/December 1998, estimated record coarse grain production following adequate and well-distributed rains, timely availability of agricultural inputs and minimal damage by pests and diseases. Millet production is estimated at 1 million tonnes, almost twice the previous year's level, and sorghum at 4.5 million tonnes, 60 percent above the below-average crop of 1997. By contrast, prospects for the 1999 wheat crop, the harvesting of which has started, are unfavourable reflecting a sharp decline in the area planted, mainly reflecting high cost of production and comparatively low prices of imported wheat and wheat flour. Also, unseasonal high temperatures during December and January are likely to negatively affect yields.

Sorghum market prices have fallen below production costs in main producing areas, due to large cereal supplies. This may depress area planted next year. Sorghum exports are no longer banned and export availabilities are estimated at 640 000 tonnes.

Despite the satisfactory food supply situation in the north, some 2.36 million people in the south will need emergency food assistance due to on-going civil conflict. In the north, vulnerable groups including internally displaced people and needy communities in specific localities will need food aid especially during the lean period (April-October) in 1999. Emergency food aid needs of war-affected and food-deficit regions are in the order of 173 000 tonnes, including 130 000 tonnes of cereals. In view of the ample domestic availability, local purchases for food aid are highly recommended in order to support markets.

The serious nutritional situation in southern Sudan, particularly in Bahr El-Ghazal, where famine conditions were experienced last year, has improved in the past months with increased food aid distributions.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 
Wheat
Rice
Coarse grains
Total
Normal Production
460
1
3 189
3 650
Normal Imports
450
10
130
590
of which: Structural food aid
250
-
-
250
1998/99 Domestic Availability
380
2
5 542
5 924
1998 Production (rice in paddy terms)
280
3
5 542
5 825
1998 Production (rice in milled terms)
280
2
5 542
5 824
Possible stock drawdown
100
-
-
100
1998/99 Utilization
1 030
27
5 567
6 624
Food Use
960
26
3 363
4 349
of which: local purchase requirement
-
-
150
150
Non-food use
70
1
1 235
1 306
Exports or Re-exports
-
-
719
719
Possible stock build up
-
-
250
250
1998/99 Import Requirement
650
25
25
700
Anticipated commercial imports
650
25
-
675
Food aid needs
-
-
25
25
Current Aid Position
       
Food aid pledges
29
3
59
91
of which: Delivered
29
3
41
74
Donor-financed purchases
-
-
5
5
of which: for local use
-
-
5
5
for export
-
-
-
-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)
32
1
111
144
Indexes
       
1998 production as % of normal:
     
160
1998/99 import requirement as % of normal:
     
119
1998/99 food aid requirement as % of normal:
     
10

FAO/GIEWS - April 1999

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