FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 1999 KENYA 23

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KENYA

Area:
569 000 sq.km
Climate:
North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons (March-May and November December).
Population:
31.10 million (1998 estimate), GNP per caput US$ 330 (1997)
Specific characteristics of the country:
Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:
Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:
Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:
October/September
Lean season:
June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:
56 percent


CURRENT SITUATION


The recently harvested "short rains" maize and beans crops have been poor. Late and insufficient rains resulted in reductions in plantings and negatively affected yields. Preliminary production estimates indicate an output of 100 000 tonnes, only one-quarter of the normal levels. Although the short rains maize accounts for only 15 percent of the national production, it is the main crop in Eastern and parts of Central Province. Despite an overall satisfactory food supply, severe food shortages are already being reported, particularly from the marginal lower parts of Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Maragua Thika, and Nyeri districts. The dry weather has also resulted in the deterioration of pastures and shortage of water supplies for livestock. Food aid is needed for the affected population.

The output of the 1998 main "long rains" cereal crop was significantly higher than in 1997, mainly reflecting abundant and well distributed rains in the main producing area of the Rift Valley. Maize, the main staple, has been estimated at an above average level of 2.34 million tonnes. With a reduced "short rains" crop of 100 000 tonnes, the aggregate 1998/99 maize production is projected at 2.44 million tonnes.

Reflecting the good "long rains" maize crop and large carryover stocks from last year, prices have declined sharply in recent months. In order to support prices the Government has announced the buying of 270 000 tonnes of maize for food aid distribution to the population affected by a poor "short rains" harvest and building up its Strategic Reserves.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)


 
Wheat
Rice
Coarse grains
Total
Normal Production
241
49
2 587
2 877
Normal Imports
311
57
312
680
of which: Structural food aid
74
-
-
74
1998/99 Domestic Availability
465
152
3 159
3 776
1998 Production (rice in paddy terms)
315
65
2 695
3 075
1998 Production (rice in milled terms)
315
42
2 695
3 052
Possible stock drawdown
150
110
464
724
1998/99 Utilization
765
272
3 529
4 566
Food Use
725
222
3 118
4 065
of which: local purchase requirement
-
-
5
5
Non-food use
40
50
411
501
Exports or Re-exports
-
-
-
-
Possible stock build up
-
-
-
-
1998/99 Import Requirement
300
120
370
790
Anticipated commercial imports
251
120
350
721
Food aid needs
49
-
20
69
Current Aid Position
       
Food aid pledges
49
-
12
60
of which: Delivered
22
-
10
32
Donor-financed purchases
-
-
5
5
of which: for local use
-
-
5
5
for export
-
-
-
-
Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)
23
7
100
131
Indexes
       
1998 production as % of normal:
     
107
1998/99 import requirement as % of normal:
     
116
1998/99 food aid requirement as % of normal:
     
93

FAO/GIEWS - April 1999

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