FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 1999 SOMALIA 40

SOMALIA

CURRENT SITUATION

The recently-harvested 1998/99 secondary "Deyr" cereal crops was estimated at 80 000 tonnes, twice the poor level of 1997/98 affected by severe floods, but still 25 percent below pre-civil strife normal levels. Despite an increase in plantings, late and below-average rains from October to December negatively affected yields. Insufficient rainfall has also caused the deterioration of pastures and water supplies for livestock and humans. Although "Deyr" crops normally account for only 20 percent of annual cereal production, this "Deyr" crop follows on from the failure of the 1998 main "Gu" cereal crop, which was only one-quarter of the level pre-war.

The already difficult food supply situation is anticipated to deteriorate in the coming months, with an estimated 1 million people at risk of food shortages and 400 000 most at risk. Prices of cereals have increased sharply in recent months and are well beyond the reach of the majority of the population. Coping mechanisms are becoming exhausted after five consecutive reduced harvests and the ban of livestock imports from Somalia by Saudi Arabia. Population movements, particularly from the worst affected Bay and Bakol regions, in search of food and water, are on the increase. The situation has been aggravated by renewed fighting in many areas. Current estimates indicate that some 30 000 people have been displaced by hunger and insecurity.

Following the sharply reduced 1998 "Gu" crop, FAO projected the aggregate cereal deficit at 340 000 tonnes. This estimate was based on an optimistic assumption of normal rains during the "Deyr" season. However, with the final production estimates for the Northwest region and "Deyr" crop, the cereal deficit has been revised up to 385 000 tonnes. Of this, some 250 000 tonnes are projected to be met by commercial imports, leaving an overall food aid requirement of 135 000 tonnes. However, insecurity in many areas of the country prevents access to needy people. Emergency food aid requirements for the 400 000 most vulnerable people in rural areas of southern Somalia (or some 7 percent of the population) are estimated at 11 000 tonnes for the period January-March.

With six consecutive reduced harvests, there is also urgent need for seeds for planting in the next season from April. It is estimated that approximately 1 500 tonnes of sorghum seed would be required for some 75 000 most vulnerable households.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)