FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 1999 TANZANIA 44

TANZANIA

CURRENT SITUATION

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in early January 1999 found that as a result of reduced rainfall, planted area and yields fell sharply and overall Vuli maize production will be significantly below normal. The worst affected regions were the Coast and the lowlands of Arusha, Morogoro and Kilimanjaro where rainfall was less than 25 percent of normal.

In addition, domestic maize supplies for the 1998/99 marketing year (June/May) were reduced by higher than anticipated storage losses, due to a combination of ineffective pesticide use, generally poor storage facilities and high levels of grain borer infestation. Supplies may also have been reduced by increased unofficial cross border trade in maize to Zambia, in response to higher prices. In addition to supply constraints, there was increased demand for maize this year in regions like Dodoma and Singida, where the principal sorghum and millet crops failed almost totally last year. The sudden rise in maize prices in late October/early November over a relatively short period, suggests that in addition to developing shortages, which would have had a more gradual impact on price, there was a considerable degree of hoarding.

Although the availability and price of maize have given cause for concern, there is satisfactory supply of food, other than sorghum and millet, in the main producing areas at reasonable prices. This is due to the favourable production of rice, banana and tuber crops last main season. Rice, however, still remains beyond the reach of poorer sectors of the population who have limited purchasing power, whilst crops like cassava and banana are only available in main producing areas as they are not easily transported to food deficit areas over long distances.

The Mission estimated the 1999 Vuli maize production at 228 000 tonnes, some 60 percent lower than last year and 40 percent below the long term average. For the remaining four months of the current marketing year, the Mission estimated that the country has an import requirement of 561 000 tonnes of maize , of which already contracted commercial imports amount to 75 000 tonnes and food aid in the pipeline to 3 000 tonnes. This leaves the country with an uncovered import requirement of 483 000 tonnes, of which 20 000 will be requested as further food assistance through WFP. In the meantime the Government has released 10 000 tonnes through the SGR for relief assistance. Although the aggregate deficit in maize remains sizeable, it is recognized that considerable substitution by other food crops will reduce overall requirements for maize. The commercial sector may also increase the volume of imports, in view of the lifting of the import duty on maize and providing domestic prices in relation to international prices remain high.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1998/99 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tonnes)