"Normal" production: "Normal" production of cereals is defined as that level of production which would be harvested in the current year assuming no abnormal climatic conditions and no reductions in area planted or supply of inputs caused by civil disorders or other man-made causes. A substantial deviation of current production from "normal" is one of the main signals used to indicate the need for exceptional food assistance.
Two main methods have been utilized in this report to estimate the level of "normal" production for the current year. One is based on the calculation of linear trends of production for each cereal for the previous ten years. For countries where no statistically significant trends could be established, the level of "normal" production has been established on the basis of the average for a recent period of years when growing conditions were normal.
"Normal" imports: "Normal" imports of cereals are defined as those quantities needed to meet domestic requirements in a year of "normal" production, including both commercial imports and food aid.
For countries which are self-sufficient in domestically grown cereals in a normal year the estimate of "normal" cereal imports for those cereals not produced domestically (mainly wheat and rice) has been calculated on the basis of trends which have been fitted to historical import data for these cereals. In general these imports have grown in line with increases in urban population numbers. For other countries, an average of imports during recent "normal" production years, brought forward by applying a trend factor, has been used. If the sum of anticipated commercial imports and structural food aid in the current year falls below estimated "normal" imports because of balance of payments difficulties, the country is considered to need exceptional food assistance.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this bulletin do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. |