In Angola, the food outlook for 1999 is extremely bleak, following the resumption of fighting between government forces and UNITA rebels last December, just after the beginning of the current cropping season. Large-scale population displacement in rural areas is reported, with farm families abandoning their farms and homes to take refuge in government-held towns and cities or in neighbouring countries. Some reports say that the Angolan country-side is being systematically depopulated. Food production in 1999 is expected to be sharply reduced and the country will need massive food assistance. Distribution of relief assistance will, however, be problematic due to insecurity and land mines and will have to be mainly by costly air transport. Elsewhere in southern Africa, harvest prospects for the current crops are favourable, following adequate rainfall to-date, even though it has been too much in some countries such as Mozambique where localized floods adversely affected crops. The sub-region’s cereal output in 1999 is expected to exceed the 1998 production, which was some 15 percent below the long-term average.
The food crisis in Somalia has deepened, with reports of starvation-related deaths and widespread severe malnutrition. This is the result of six consecutive poor harvests caused by adverse weather and the long-running civil strife. Economic and commercial activities have been severely curtailed, particularly in the south, and traditional coping mechanisms have been virtually exhausted, forcing large numbers of people to move in search of food and to escape from factional fighting. Saudi Arabia’s ban on livestock imports from the country on account of livestock disease outbreaks has aggravated the food crisis. It is currently estimated that over one million people are desperately short of food, with more than 400 000 threatened by starvation. Even though distribution of relief food continues to be seriously hampered by insecurity, the international community should devise ways to reach the increasingly desperate population. There is also an urgent need for seeds for planting in the "Gu" season which is just beginning.
The ongoing war between Eritrea and Ethiopia has displaced a large number of people on both sides who are in need of food assistance. In Tanzania, a combination of rain failure, abnormally high storage losses and significant informal maize outflows to neighbouring countries have led to a large drop in domestic maize supplies and a substantial import requirement not initially foreseen.
In the Great Lakes region, the food supply situation remains precarious, with efforts to increase food production hamstrung by persistent insecurity and sporadic violence, as well as weather adversities. Prolonged dry spells in Burundi and Rwanda during the just-ended growing season reduced crop yields, while insecurity in parts continues to disrupt food production activities. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the ongoing civil strife continues to displace large sections of the rural population, thus hampering food production and leading to high levels of malnutrition. In the Republic of Congo, renewed violence in the capital city of Brazzaville and in the Pool region has displaced large numbers of people who have lost their livelihoods. As of late March some improvement in the security situation has been reported.
In western Africa, the food outlook for 1999 is generally favourable, particularly in the Sahelian countries, following above-average to record harvests. Several countries have cereal surpluses available for donor purchases for transfer to deficit areas within the countries themselves, or for triangular transactions. However, in rural Sierra Leone violence is causing extreme fear among the population, with large numbers of farm families fleeing their homes to seek safety elsewhere. This would adversely affect plantings in the coming season, which starts in April/May, and will probably cause a considerable reduction in yields. This means that the country will continue to rely heavily on international food assistance. In Guinea Bissau, a resurgence of fighting in the capital city at the end of January has led to new population displacements.
Cereal import requirements of sub-Saharan Africa in 1998/99 are forecast to be lower than in 1997/98, reflecting the good harvests in western Africa and in parts of eastern Africa. Food aid requirements are similarly forecast to be lower.
