The estimate of world cassava output in 1998 has been revised downwards since the last report in November 1998 and is currently put at 162 million tonnes of fresh roots, or 3 less than in 1997. The decline reflects reduced output in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean that was not offset by a small increase in Africa. In Asia, total output in 1998 fell by 5 percent to 45 million tonnes largely as a result of drought related to the El Niño phenomenon, which depressed plantings and yields. Among the major producing countries, production in Thailand fell by 12 percent, while the declines ranged from 5 to 20 percent in India, China and the Philippines. In Viet Nam, output is estimated to have remained close to the previous year's level. Although land traditionally under cassava was reportedly shifted to more remunerative crops, such as rice and maize, this was compensated by the opening of new cassava growing areas in former waste lands in the south which have been brought under intensive cassava cultivation using new high-yielding varieties, with high starch content. The contraction has been most pronounced in Latin America and the Caribbean, where output is estimated to have fallen by more than 10 percent to 28.4 million tonnes, also due to the adverse El-Niño weather effects in several countries along the equatorial belt as well as in the Southern Hemisphere. For instance, the harvest in Brazil at 20.4 million tonnes was 16 percent lower than in 1997 reflecting a prolonged drought in the north-eastern states, which account for about 40 percent of the national cassava production. Similarly, in Colombia and Haiti cassava output fell in 1998. By contrast, a modest increase was recorded in Paraguay, where producers have been shifting land from cotton to cassava, and in the Dominican Republic. In Africa, output is estimated to have risen by nearly two percent to 88 million tonnes, reflecting favourable climatic conditions in some major producing countries, but also government policies aiming at promoting cassava cultivation. In particular, production increased in Angola, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda while poor crops were reported in Benin, Cameroon, Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique and Sierra Leone, where drought resulted in reduced plantings and yields. Civil strife and internal conflicts also contributed to the contraction in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone. Little change in the crop size was reported in the other countries of the region.
The increase in cassava production in Africa in 1998 supported a small rise in overall cassava food consumption in the region, but this was not sufficient to prevent a small decline in average per caput intake. In those countries where cassava production dropped, the decline per caput intake was particularly pronounced, often with serious consequences for the food security.
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
prelim. |
|
|
( . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . )
|
|||
|
WORLD
|
165.4
|
166.2
|
161.6
|
|
Africa
|
84.7
|
86.5
|
88.1
|
|
Congo Dem. Rep.
|
16.8
|
16.8
|
16.5
|
|
Ghana
|
7.1
|
7.1
|
7.6
|
|
Madagascar
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
|
Mozambique
|
4.7
|
5.3
|
5.0
|
|
Nigeria
|
31.4
|
32.1
|
32.7
|
|
Tanzania
|
6.0
|
5.7
|
6.2
|
|
Uganda
|
2.2
|
2.3
|
2.6
|
|
Asia
|
48.8
|
47.5
|
45.0
|
|
China
|
3.6
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
|
India
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
4.8
|
|
Indonesia
|
17.0
|
15.1
|
16.1
|
|
Philippines
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
|
Thailand
|
17.4
|
18.1
|
16.0
|
|
Viet Nam
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
|
Latin America and Caribbean
|
31.6
|
32.0
|
28.4
|
|
Brazil
|
24.6
|
24.3
|
20.4
|
|
Colombia
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
|
Paraguay
|
2.6
|
3.2
|
3.3
|
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the contraction in production is estimated to have reduced usage as feed, but food consumption remained unchanged. In Brazil, food consumption is estimated to have risen in 1998, sustained by the growing popularity of new cassava-based products (see Box). In Asia, overall cassava usage fell in 1998, mainly due to a reduction in its utilization as feed. Reduced feed usage was particularly marked in the Chinese Province of Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines and Malaysia, all of which imported less or no cassava in 1998. In the Chinese Province of Taiwan, for instance, the usage of cassava chips and pellets in feed rations fell following the restructuring of the pig sector, after the occurrence of several cases of foot and mouth disease in 1997. Cassava utilization in processed food and industrial products also dropped in Thailand. By contrast, the rise in cassava production in Indonesia provided the basis for increases in food consumption in the country. This helped to compensate for smaller crops of rice, with which cassava competes in the diets. Among the developed countries, the utilization of cassava as animal feed fell in 1998 in the EC, despite a recovery in the pig inventories from the swine fever outbreak that had lowered pig production, particularly in the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium. The decline in cassava usage was mainly brought about by abundant supplies and lower relative prices for feed grains that encouraged a shift away from cassava usage in compound feeds. The utilization of cassava in the other developed countries, including Israel and Poland, also fell.
The estimate of world cassava trade in 1998 has been revised downward by 13 percent or 800 000 thousand tonnes, since the last report, and is currently put at 5.0 million tonnes (12.5 million tonnes in fresh root equivalent), or 22 percent below 1997. The fall reflects reduced shipments of chips and pellets for feed but also smaller volumes of trade in starch and flour for food and industrial uses.
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
prelim. |
|
|
(. . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . )
|
|||
|
World Exports
|
5.8
|
6.4
|
5.0
|
|
Thailand
|
4.6
|
5.3
|
4.0
|
|
Indonesia
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
|
China 2/
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Others
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
|
World Imports
|
5.8
|
6.4
|
5.0
|
|
EC 3/
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
2.9
|
|
China 2/
|
0.3
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
|
Japan
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
Korea. Rep. of
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
|
Others
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
0.8
|
Imports of chips and pellets by the EC amounted to 2.9 million tonnes, or 700 000 tonnes less than in 1997 and the lowest level in the past ten years. Among the non-EC countries, both China and Japan raised their purchases of cassava chips and pellets, while the Republic of Korea and the Philippines bought much less due to the economic difficulties affecting the livestock sector. In the same period, other traditional importers, such as Israel, Poland, the Chinese Province of Taiwan and Turkey made no purchases of chips and pellets.
As in the past, Thailand continued to be by far the largest supplier to the world markets, covering 80 percent of global exports. Shipments from Thailand fell by 25 percent, from 5.3 million tonnes in 1997 to 4.0 million tonnes in 1998. The sales to the EC, at 2.8 million tonnes, were much less than the 5.25 millions tonnes it is entitled to ship there under the preferential access arrangements. Likewise, sales by Indonesia to all destinations did not exceed 200 000 tonnes, constrained by a strong domestic demand. In fact, its deliveries to the EC amounted to only some 50 000 tonnes, considerably below the 866 000 tonnes it is entitled to export there. Among the other traditional cassava exporters, sales by China and Viet Nam remained close to 1997 level. These two countries, which are both exporters and importers of cassava products, also failed to fulfil their quotas to the EC, due to strong domestic demand and a diversion of supplies to other markets.
In 1998, the EC import price for cassava pellets continued to trend downward, averaging US$107 per tonne, significantly lower than the average of US$158 in 1994-96 and the lowest level for the last ten years. Cassava prices suffered from weak import demand for tapioca chips and pellets in the EC, as abundant supplies and falling domestic prices for feed grains encouraged a shift away from cassava usage in compound feed. The downward trend in prices of cassava pellets in 1998 followed that of barley, a major competitor in the feed market. In early 1998, however, the decline in the world price of soybean meal, which is combined with tapioca in compound feed, helped to sustain the competitiveness of the cassava/ soybean mixtures vis-à-vis barley and maize in the European markets. In contrast to pellets, international prices of cassava starch and flour recovered till June 1998 reflecting a revival in demand and tight supplies of quality raw material, but they collapsed since July due to competition from other starches (see price table and graph).
|
Tapioca flour/
starch Super H. G., Fob Bangkok |
Domestic market prices
|
||
|
Roots
|
Hard pellets
|
||
|
(. . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . .)
|
|||
|
1995
|
358
|
65
|
127
|
|
1996
|
289
|
49
|
113
|
|
1997
|
244
|
34
|
72
|
|
1998
|
276
|
44
|
75
|
|
1998 - Jan.-Mar.
|
291
|
39
|
71
|
|
Apr.-June
|
330
|
51
|
72
|
|
July-Sept.
|
269
|
48
|
87
|
|
Oct.-Dec.
|
213
|
37
|
n.a.
|
|
1999 - Jan.-Feb.
|
200
|
31
|
73
|
|
Cassava
pellets 1/ |
Soybean
meal 2/ |
Cassava soybean
meal mixture 3/ |
Barley 4/
|
Barley/cassava
mixture |
|
|
( . . . . . . . . .US$/tonne . . . . . . . . )
|
( ratio )
|
||||
|
1990
|
167
|
208
|
175
|
225
|
1.29
|
|
1991
|
178
|
197
|
186
|
222
|
1.19
|
|
1992
|
183
|
204
|
187
|
235
|
1.26
|
|
1993
|
137
|
208
|
151
|
197
|
1.30
|
|
1994
|
144
|
192
|
154
|
182
|
1.18
|
|
1995
|
177
|
197
|
181
|
209
|
1.15
|
|
1996
|
152
|
268
|
175
|
194
|
1.11
|
|
1997
|
108
|
276
|
142
|
161
|
1.13
|
|
1998
|
107
|
170
|
120
|
145
|
1.21
|
|
1999 5/
|
103
|
147
|
112
|
153
|
1.37
|
While it is too early to provide estimates for world cassava production in 1999, there are preliminary indications of a possible reduction in output in Africa as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean where adverse weather conditions late last year damaged plantings. In Africa, a number of major producing countries, particularly those affected by civil strife and internal conflicts, such as Angola, Congo Democratic Republic and Sierra Leone, are forecast to experience another contraction. In Nigeria, government estimates for the 1999 crop also point to a substantial reduction. By contrast, a small recovery is expected in Asia, assuming a return to normal climatic conditions, especially as the annual planting survey in Thailand conducted in 1998 pointed to a four percent increase in production in 1999. Little change is currently anticipated in the other countries.
International cassava trade might recover somewhat from the record
low level of last year. This would mainly reflect the expected recovery in production
in Thailand, which should raise cassava
availability for export. Sales from that country to the EC have already risen
by 30 percent by the end of February 1999, compared with the same period last
year. However, the outcome for the full calendar year will depend to a large
extent on the level of feed grain and oil meal prices in the EC.
The modest recovery in supplies that is expected in major exporting countries may lead to continued downward pressure on domestic and international prices. For instance, by the end of February 1999, the domestic root prices in Thailand were quoted at 120 baht/kg (US$32.3 tonnes)1/ compared with 183 baht (US$41/tonnes)2/ at the same time last year. On international markets, export
prices for Thai tapioca flour/starch have also continued to slide,
reaching US$200 per tonnes in February 1999, down from US$310 per tonne in February
1998. At the same time, cassava pellets prices exported to the EC in the first
two months of
1999 fell to a record low of 103 US$ per tonne. However, the prospects for declining
soybean prices may give some limited scope for cassava pellet prices to recover,
although this will depend to a large extent on developments in the EC feed grain
market.
CASSAVA - A STAPLE FOOD IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIESWorld consumption of cassava for food (fresh or processed) is concentrated in the developing countries. In Africa, about 70 percent of cassava production is used as food. The most popular processed products are commonly known as "gari", "lafun", "foufou", "attiéké" and "chickwangue". "Gari", a dry granular meal made from moist and fermented cassava is most commonly used in West Africa. Other forms of processed cassava consumption include a sun-dried cassava known as "lafun" in southwest Nigeria and sticky or heavy soup made from fermented cassava known as "foufou". In other parts of Africa, cassava is commonly made into flour from dried roots or chunks of roots, and consumed as flour commonly named "attiéké" and "chickwangue" In Latin America and the Caribbean, between 35 and 40 percent of the cassava production is used for human consumption. One-fifth is eaten fresh, mostly by the rural population, in three principal manners: fresh (boiled or fried); as a roasted flour called "farinha de mandioca", popular in northern Brazil and neighbouring areas, and as a pre-cooked flour called "farinha da mesa". In Brazil, a number of new cassava products are gaining in popularity in the food industry and in urban fast-food outlets, in particular naturally fermented cassava starch, commonly known as "polvilho azedo", which has bread-making properties. In the southern, central and western regions, the main cassava based fast-food, "pão de queijo", a kind of bread made of sweet and sour cassava starches, cheese and eggs, is consumed in virtually every family. "Sour", a fermented starch extracted from cassava, is used in Colombia to prepare snacks and traditional gluten-free cheese breads, called "pan de yuca" and "pan de bono". Similarly, in the countries of the Caribbean basin, moist cassava pulp is used to prepare a thick cake called "bammy". An unleavened bread commonly known as "casabe", is also a speciality in that area. In Asia, over 40 percent of the cassava produced is for direct human consumption, with much of the remainder exported as chips and pellets. Cassava is a cheap source of calories and often supplements insufficient rice supplies. The major consumers are concentrated in India and Indonesia. In India, baked roots are converted into small chips, flour and "sago", a type of wet starch that is roasted. In Indonesia, 57 percent of production is for human consumption. Cassava roots are eaten boiled or steamed and processed into dried chips, commonly named "gaplek" and starch. "Gaplek" is used for human consumption in a large variety of traditional dishes and, in times of scarcity, it partially substitutes for rice in rural diets. In Thailand, food cassava products are mainly derived from manufactured starch and mainly consumed under the form of noodles, cakes and pastry. |
