FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/99 - INDONESIA* (1 April)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country from 15-24 March found that, in addition to generalized economic problems, the food supply situation continues to be affected by political instability, poor security and escalation in civil unrest in parts. Consequently, there are indications that markets are failing, as traders are reluctant to hold stocks or transport large consignments due to security concerns. Such failures, together with the diminished role of the National Logistics Planning Agency, BULOG, have led to considerable variation in supplies and price across the country, further restricting the access of the poorest to markets. In general, despite expectations of some recovery in agriculture and the economy this year, longer-term prospects for employment and growth remain uncertain.
According to official reports from the Central Bureau of Statistics, 1999 paddy production is forecast at 48.6 million tonnes, against the Government's target of 52 million tonnes, and similar to the Bureau's 1998 final estimates of 48.5 million tonnes. Based on this forecast, the rice import requirement for the 1999/2000 marketing year (April-March), is estimated at around 3.1 million tonnes, of which approximately 1.3 million is covered by pipeline commercial and soft loan imports and food aid. This leaves a deficit of about 1.8 million tonnes of rice to be covered by commercial/concessional imports, loans, grants and targeted food aid. In addition to rice, some 3.3 million tonnes of wheat will be required in the current marketing year. There are large wheat stocks in the country, amounting to 500 000 tonnes, due to reduced demand. Taking these stocks into account and including bilateral wheat assistance in the pipeline, the uncovered import requirement for wheat in 1999/2000 is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes.
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