FAO/GIEWS - Foodcrops & Shortages 04/99 - SOMALIA* (1 April)
Rains in the first two dekads of March, improved pastures conditions and water supplies in pastoral areas in Northwestern areas affected by dry weather in the previous "Deyr" season. The rains also improved soil condition for planting of the next main "Gu" season, about to start. FAO is currently distributing 560 tonnes of sorghum seeds to 28 000 drought-affected farmers in Bay and Bakool regions.
The recently-harvested 1998/99 secondary "Deyr" cereal crops was estimated at 80 000 tonnes, twice the poor level of 1997/98 which was affected by severe floods, but still 25 percent below pre-civil strife levels. Despite an increase in plantings, late and below-average rains from October to December negatively affected yields. Insufficient rainfall also caused the deterioration of pastures and water supplies for livestock and humans. Although "Deyr" crops normally account for only 20 percent of annual cereal production, this �Deyr� crop follows on from the failure of the 1998 main "Gu" cereal crop, which was only one-quarter of the level pre-war.
The already difficult food supply situation is anticipated to deteriorate in the coming months, with an estimated 1 million people at risk of food shortages and 400 000 most at risk. Prices of cereals have increased sharply in recent months and are well beyond the reach of the majority of the population. Coping mechanisms are becoming exhausted after five consecutive reduced harvests and the ban on livestock imports from Somalia by Saudi Arabia. Population movements, particularly from the worst affected Bay and Bakol regions, in search of food and water, are on the increase. The situation has been aggravated by renewed fighting in many areas. Current estimates indicate that some 30 000 people have been displaced by food shortages and insecurity. Emergency food aid is being distributed.
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